| FTBL 2015 SEC West over/under win total picks: Tide still on top?

[FOX Sports Digital]

SEC Over/Unders Are Out: Any Good Bets?

Our friends at 5Dimes have released their over/unders for SEC football.

Let's start with the predicted order of finish based on the over/unders:

SEC West

1. Alabama

9.5 over/under with the over at -145 and the under at +105

I'd take the over, but I don't think there's good value here.

2. Auburn

8.5 over/under with the over at -165 and the under at +125

I'd take the over but, again, there's no value here.

3. Ole Miss

8.5 over/under with the over at -110 and the under at -130

I figure the Rebels are underdogs at Alabama, at Auburn, and at Mississippi State. Then you toss in games that I think will be tough -- at Florida, at Memphis -- really, I'm serious -- Arkansas and LSU. That's seven loseable games. Are you confident the Rebels go 4-3 in these games? I'm not.

I like the under here because 8.5 is just so high of a starting number, but at -130 there's not much value.

4. Arkansas

8.5 over/under with the over at +120 and the under at -160

I think Arkansas will be 4-0 when they go to Tennessee on October 3rd. That's a massive swing game for both these teams. But even if the Razorbacks win that game, here's their next four SEC games: at Alabama, Auburn at Ole Miss, at LSU.

So in the space of five SEC games Arkansas goes to Tennessee, to Alabama, hosts Auburn and to Ole Miss and LSU.

Do you feel comfortable betting on the Razorbacks to win 9 games?

If forced to take a pick, I'd probably take the over here because the payoff is better, but I really wouldn't bet this.

5. LSU

8 over/under with the over at -125 and the under at -115

You start with four wins out of conference and then need to get to 4-4 in conference to push. I think a push is probably likely, but there isn't any value here on either side.

6. Texas A&M

7.5 over/under with the over at -215 and the under at +165

That opening Arizona State game is tricky, but assuming a win there you're 4-0 out of conference with should be likely SEC wins at Vanderbilt and home against South Carolina. That gets you to six wins. Unfortunately you still need two more wins to get to eight and cover this number. Even with a win over Mississippi State you're still likely underdogs at Arkansas, Alabama, at Ole Miss, Auburn and at LSU.

Now winning one of those games might well happen, but is it so likely that the number should be -215 on the over?

As much as I love Kevin Sumlin and the addition of John Chavis, I think the value play is the under here. This is one of the few where you get some juice actually in your direction.

7. Mississippi State

7 over/under with the over at -115 and the under at -125

You'd think that an over/under of seven for a team that went 10-2 last season and returns its starting quarterback would be cake. Especially when you start with wins in all four of its out of conference games. But, man, even this bet is difficult. Toss in Kentucky to get to five wins -- a likely small favorite over LSU at home -- and then theBulldogs will probably be an underdog in their remaining six SEC games.

Getting to eight wins will be tough, I think a push is likely here.

SEC East

1. Georgia

9 over/under with the over at -135 and the under at -105

The Bulldogs should be 4-0 when Alabama comes to town on October 3rd. But that week is followed up by a trip to Tennessee. So things could swing in a hurry here. 4-0 could turn into 4-2 and second in the SEC East or it could be 6-0 and heavy playoff contenders. I tend to think the value play here is probably on the under, but nine seems about right.

The big question is, which game will Georgia Georgia in 2015?

2. Missouri

7.5 over/under with the over at -180 and the under at +104

The Tigers play a relatively tough -- and inexplicable -- road game at Arkansas State and also host BYU. That's a pretty difficult out of conference as these things go since both of these are projected bowl teams. But the road schedule is about as easy as you could hope for in the SEC: at Kentucky and at Vandy along with really tough games at Georgia and at Arkansas, both of which are likely losses.

I'd probably take the under because of the value, but this number seems about right.

3. Tennessee

7.5 over/under with the over at -140 and the under at +100

Tennessee's an enigma this year, the Vols should be much better, but the schedule is brutal. Oklahoma is the major out of conference foe, but at least that game is in Knoxville. You feel pretty good about five wins: Bowling Green, Western Carolina, Kentucky, North Texas, and Vandy, but even penciling in a loss at Alabama -- and the difference between these two teams will be the lowest since 2009 when Lane Kiffin almost pulled off the upset in Tuscaloosa -- there are a legit six toss up games on this schedule: Oklahoma, at Florida, Arkansas, Georgia, South Carolina, and at Missouri.

Tennessee has to go 3-3 in these six to hit the over. I think the Vols will do that, but at -140 do I really like the value of the over bet? Nope.

4. Florida

7.5 over/under with the over at +110 and the under at -150

The Gators should start off 3-0 and have Tennessee coming to town in what could be a massive swing game for both teams. Win that one and the Gators would be 4-0 and thinking they have a chance to compete in the SEC East. Lose it and the schedule looks daunting.

I'd be inclined to go under, but there's no value here.

5. South Carolina

7 over/under with the over at -120 and the under at -120

The ultimate we have no idea about this team line. Equal juice on both the over and under at seven.

The schedule is really tough: North Carolina, Central Florida and Clemson as three out of the four out of conference games. Indeed, there's only one guaranteed win all season -- Citadel.

I'd probably be inclined to take the under, but seven is such a low number, who knows?

6. Kentucky

6 over/under with the over at -145 and the under at +105

Kentucky on the under is my favorite bet of all 14 teams.

Let's look at the Wildcat schedule. UK gets wins over La-Lafayette, Eastern Kentucky, and Charlotte. So that's three wins. Louisville vs. UK is a toss up. Then comes the SEC schedule. Home: Florida, Missouri, Auburn, and Tennessee Road: South Carolina, Georgia, Mississippi State, and Vandy

The only SEC game that I think Kentucky will be favored in all year is at Vandy.

So even if you give UK the Louisville win -- generous -- and the Vandy win, the Wildcats would still have to beat two more SEC teams to be over on this win total.

I just don't see it.

7. Vandy

3 over/under with the over at -135 and the under at -105

Last year Derek Mason went 3-9, this year Vegas pegs him at 3-9 again.

The only guaranteed win I see on Vandy's schedule is Austin Peay. The other three out of conference games areWestern Kentucky -- a hugely massive opener for the Dores -- MTSU, and at Houston.

Vandy figures to be underdogs in all eight SEC games this season.

I think the under is the play here, but how do you play the over/under at three? Especially when Vandy can push by beating Austin Peay, WKU and MTSU?

I wouldn't touch this one either.

...

So to reiterate.

My favorite SEC over/under plays this year are:

1. UK on the under of six +105

2. Texas A&M on the under of 7.5 +165

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[BAMANEWSBOT]

Picking the SEC West: Alabama still on top?

(FROM CBS SPORTS)

There's less than 100 days to college football season. The preseason magazines are hitting newsstands. Bets are open on every FBS team's 2015 win total. The season is almost here!

Well ... that might be pushing it. Still, it's closer than it's ever been (and now it's even closer ... and now it's even closer), and to celebrate, it's time to pull out the SEC's win totals and make our picks on overs and unders for the fourth straight year. Picking record over thefirst three years: 20-22*. So, yeah, entertainment purposes only here.

But you have to admit: this is entertaining. We're tackling the SEC West on Thursday, with the East coming this Friday. As always, win totals reflect regular-season contests only (no conference championship or bowl games included) and lines are current at 5Dimes as of Thursday. (Plus-odds indicate a bettor earns more money back than wagered if the bet pays off, minus-odds the opposite; a bet at +120 earns $120 for every $100 wagered, a bet at -120 requires $120 wagered to win $100. Got it?)

Team names are linked to 2015 schedules. Enjoy!

Alabama, 9.5 wins (over -145, under +105)

The Tide have quite possibly the nation's best front seven. They have -- judging from spring practice -- improved cornerback play. Of all the FBS thunder-and-lightning tailback tandems, they have the most thunder-and-lightning tailback tandem in Derrick Henry and Kenyan Drake. But ... do they have a passing game? Amari Cooper is gone, and despite a publicly solid-enough spring, whispers abound that Jacob Coker could lose the starting quarterback job to David Cornwell. The Tide haven't lost more than one regular season game since 2010 and have won 11 or more seven of the past eight years ... but in a division this loaded, with arguably their two toughest opponents (Georgia and Auburn) on the road, and little certain about the Tide's aerial attack, -145 for 10 wins seems too expensive. This is a pick with the tinest amounts of confidence behind it, but the guess here is UNDER 9.5 WINS.

Arkansas, 8.5 wins (over +120, under -160)

Even at 6-6, the Hogs weren't that far away from hitting nine wins last season when they lost four different SEC games by a touchdown or less. By the end of the season Bret Bielema was overseeing a positively murderous defense (just ask Texas), a defense that loses some key parts (Trey Flowers, Martrell Spaight) but retains coordinator Robb Smith and a highly underrated secondary. If Brandon Allen's spring improvement was legitimate, it's far from out of the question the Razorbacks ride their running game, defense and some long-overdue breaks to a 2-2 split of their four SEC road games (Tennessee, Alabama, Ole Miss, LSU) and a 7-1 record at home/neutral. Especially with the under juiced, here's a pick for OVER 8.5 WINS.

Auburn, 8.5 wins (over -165, under +125)

Even in a 2014 season in which the defense collapsed, the offense never quite recaptured its delirious 2013 form, and the schedule sent them to both Athens and Tuscaloosa, the Tigers still managed eight wins. Now both Georgia and Alabama come to the Plains, they pull Kentucky in their rotating East slot, Will Muschamp is in charge of the defense and on paper there's no genuine offensive weakness (though Jeremy Johnson and the offensive line do, let's say, have something to prove). Surely the combination of easier schedule and defensive improvement can yield one more win, right? OVER 8.5 WINS.

LSU, 8 wins (over -125, under -115)

Say hello to the SEC team with maybe the widest gap between its ceiling and its floor. If Anthony Jennings or Brandon Harris give the Tigers even replacement-level quarterbacking, La'el Collins isn't missed in the run-blocking department, and Kevin Steele (and a loaded secondary) maintains LSU's recent defensive excellence, Leonard Fournette could power this team to a national title. If the quarterbacks stay below-par, Collins' absence means less up-front push, and Steele can't prevent a slippage following John Chavis's departure, this could be a schedule with six losses. Bottom line: a team that a year ago didn't beat any Power Five opponent other than Kentucky by more than six points probably doesn't have the firepower to go 9-3 in this particular division -- meaning that although a push won't be a surprise at all, the under seems likelier than the over. UNDER 8 WINS.

Ole Miss, 8.5 wins (over -110, under -130)

The Rebels have an immediate leg up on their Western brethren thanks their annual Vanderbilt date, and another one thanks to what could be -- and given the returning likes of Robert Nkemdiche, Tony Conner, Marquis Haynes, etc., maybe should be -- the FBS's best defense. But with no more Dr. Bo and one of the SEC's weakest ground games, can they score enough points to win nine games? If Laquon Treadwell and the offensive line stay healthy, their pre-Treadwell injury start to 2014 suggests they can. Another razor-tight call, but the pick is OVER 8.5 WINS.

Mississippi State, 7 wins (over -115, under -125)

The good news: the Bulldogs (again) have four all-but-certain wins in their nonconference slate (give or take a Louisiana Tech), and home to Kentucky is as cushy a non-Vanderbilt draw as the East provides. The bad news: given their major personnel losses, Dan Mullen's team could be underdogs in all seven other games: vs. LSU, at Auburn, at A&M, at Missouri, vs. Alabama, at Arkansas, and vs. Ole Miss. Which is more likely: Dak Prescott and Co. go 1-6, or 3-4? Neither seems particularly likely -- if this line was at 6.5 we'd take the over, and at 7.5 we'd take the under -- but the home slate seems too grueling to call for the over.UNDER 7 WINS.

Texas A&M, 7.5 wins (over -215, under +165)

Trivia Q: How many defenses gave up more yards-per-play in SEC play in 2014 than A&M's? Trivia A: None. Zero defenses. Getting Vanderbilt and a home date with similarly defensively-challenged South Carolina out of the East should be a massive help, and there's three gimmes on the nonconference schedule. Assuming that's five wins, the Aggies would need to go just 3-4 vs. Alabama, Auburn and Mississippi State at home, Ole Miss and LSU on the road, and Arkansas and Arizona State in neutral(ish) venues. It's certainly possible with Kyle Allen in firm control of the offense, but unless John Chavis is every bit the wizard he's been made out to be by some College Station faithful, that defense means -215 is too much juice to side with the over. UNDER 7.5 WINS.

*In my feeble defense, Auburn and Missouri simultaneously coming out of nowhere to romp to Atlanta in 2013 is singlehandedly (or doublehandedly?) holding this mark back; I went 3-11 that season and a respectable-if-hardly-spectacular 17-11 in 2012/2014, for whatever that's worth (i.e., just this side of nothing).

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[TerryP]

*In my feeble defense, Auburn and Missouri simultaneously coming out of nowhere to romp to Atlanta in 2013 is singlehandedly (or doublehandedly?) holding this mark back; I went 3-11 that season and a respectable-if-hardly-spectacular 17-11 in 2012/2014, for whatever that's worth (i.e., just this side of nothing).

Repeat after me: There are no experts in college football, Mr. Hinnen.