C
Christopher Smith
Some tips for betting Alabama-Louisville this weekend.
Alabama and Louisville enter Saturday's season opener with new faces in crucial spots.
The Tide features new starting receivers and defensive backs, new coordinators and (potentially) a new starting quarterback. Louisville QB Jawon Pass will replace Heisman Trophy winner Lamar Jackson, and the Cardinals replaced defensive coordinator Peter Sirmon after a disastrous year.
The Alabama-Louisville line has fluctuated, but sits at Bama -24 or Bama -24.5 as of this writing. And I want nothing to do with it.
My handicapping favors Alabama by 21. With so much change, and the 3-point premium against my number, I'm not risking money on the Tide.
Nick Saban is 10-1 against the spread in season openers at Alabama, so I'm not betting against history, either.
However, I do hold a position on the game total, or over/under. I took Alabama-Louisville over 56.5 points. (The number now sits at 60 and may move even higher.)
Alabama's defense will allow more TDs
It's brave to bet against Alabama's defense allowing more than two touchdowns.
The Tide have given up 14.5 points per game (ppg) in the last five years, and have ranked 7th or better in ppg allowed since 2007.
But I think it's smart.
Make all the motorcycle jokes you want, but Louisville's Bobby Petrino can coach offense.
Pass should be a superior downfield thrower to Jackson, even though he's an overall downgrade. Receivers Jaylen Smith, Dez Fitzpatrick and Seth Dawkins combined for 2,303 receiving yards and 20 touchdowns last year and could produce even more.
There have been some bulletin-board quotes out of Louisville. It's not a good idea to talk before playing Alabama. Ask Vanderbilt how that worked out last year.
But Alabama's secondary is as green as the Camping World Stadium field in Orlando. Alabama defensive coordinator Tosh Lupoi will be calling the plays for the first time. The defensive line experienced its usual share of turnover.
Expect Saban to get more aggressive on offense
In the last five years, Alabama's games averaged 51.6 points. Saban prefers a conservative offensive approach that limits turnovers while Alabama waits for the other team to succumb to the Tide's defense.
But he's already indicated that could change.
"We may have to score more points to win this season than we have in the past," Saban recently told ESPN's Chris Low.
If Tua Tagovailoa does start for Alabama, we could see more of the cutthroat, downfield aggression that he delivered in the second half against Georgia in the national championship game.
Alabama's collection of skill players almost is embarrassing.
The backfield depth is as strong as ever.
Jaylen Waddle may start as a backup receiver, but he's gotten high praise at practice. He and Jerry Jeudy may develop into the kind of receiver that Calvin Ridley and Amari Cooper were. For now, the Tide lacks that true No. 1 but has a deep group.
The offensive line has a chance to be among the SEC's best.
Alabama threw just three interceptions last season in 14 games. Don't expect a repeat, even if the Tide replicates its conservative approach with Jalen Hurts.
With Tagovailoa, expect jaw-dropping plays mixed with a few boneheaded sacks and gunslinger interceptions. That could force Saban to get more aggressive in an attempt to overcome (outscore) those mistakes.
I haven't mentioned Louisville's defense. It lost Sirmon, and that could be a good thing. Mississippi State rid itself of Sirmon after the 2016 season, and it made '17 coordinator Todd Grantham look like a genius.
As far as personnel, though, the Cardinals look like a unit poised to give up long touchdowns in bunches.
Bet Alabama "overs" early
Bama should be able to get after opposing quarterbacks and because of the talent, there's a chance you won't be able to discern the difference between this year's defensive backs and Saban's best.
For now, though, the secondary remains the biggest potential crack in the Tide defense.
If Alabama's games feature more points, sportsbooks will adapt fast. But the schedule features four consecutive teams that will attack this defense downfield.
Louisville: Pass, Petrino and a strong group of experienced receivers.
Arkansas State: Senior QB Justice Hanson threw for 3,967 yards and 37 touchdowns last year. Yes, it's Arkansas State. But don't laugh. Colorado State moved the ball on Bama in this spot in 2017.
Ole Miss: Jordan Ta'amu and Shea Patterson combined for 3,941 passing yards last year. The Rebels feature one of the nation's best receiving corps, led by preseason All-American A.J. Brown. Ole Miss' defense is bad enough to keep the offense in all-out aggression mode.
Texas A&M: If the team can grasp new coach Jimbo Fisher's complex offense, it can leverage the talent Kevin Sumlin left behind at QB and WR. Starter Nick Starkel would've drawn more preseason attention had he stayed healthy all last season. And the offensive line is bad enough to steer the Aggies away from running the ball.
It may not take long for linemakers to take notice. Or for the betting market to force their hand.
But if you're brave enough to bet against Alabama's typical style under Saban, you should be able to turn a profit on Alabama "overs" early.
Why you should bet the over on Alabama's early games
Alabama and Louisville enter Saturday's season opener with new faces in crucial spots.
The Tide features new starting receivers and defensive backs, new coordinators and (potentially) a new starting quarterback. Louisville QB Jawon Pass will replace Heisman Trophy winner Lamar Jackson, and the Cardinals replaced defensive coordinator Peter Sirmon after a disastrous year.
The Alabama-Louisville line has fluctuated, but sits at Bama -24 or Bama -24.5 as of this writing. And I want nothing to do with it.
My handicapping favors Alabama by 21. With so much change, and the 3-point premium against my number, I'm not risking money on the Tide.
Nick Saban is 10-1 against the spread in season openers at Alabama, so I'm not betting against history, either.
However, I do hold a position on the game total, or over/under. I took Alabama-Louisville over 56.5 points. (The number now sits at 60 and may move even higher.)
Alabama's defense will allow more TDs
It's brave to bet against Alabama's defense allowing more than two touchdowns.
The Tide have given up 14.5 points per game (ppg) in the last five years, and have ranked 7th or better in ppg allowed since 2007.
But I think it's smart.
Make all the motorcycle jokes you want, but Louisville's Bobby Petrino can coach offense.
Pass should be a superior downfield thrower to Jackson, even though he's an overall downgrade. Receivers Jaylen Smith, Dez Fitzpatrick and Seth Dawkins combined for 2,303 receiving yards and 20 touchdowns last year and could produce even more.
There have been some bulletin-board quotes out of Louisville. It's not a good idea to talk before playing Alabama. Ask Vanderbilt how that worked out last year.
But Alabama's secondary is as green as the Camping World Stadium field in Orlando. Alabama defensive coordinator Tosh Lupoi will be calling the plays for the first time. The defensive line experienced its usual share of turnover.
Expect Saban to get more aggressive on offense
In the last five years, Alabama's games averaged 51.6 points. Saban prefers a conservative offensive approach that limits turnovers while Alabama waits for the other team to succumb to the Tide's defense.
But he's already indicated that could change.
"We may have to score more points to win this season than we have in the past," Saban recently told ESPN's Chris Low.
If Tua Tagovailoa does start for Alabama, we could see more of the cutthroat, downfield aggression that he delivered in the second half against Georgia in the national championship game.
Alabama's collection of skill players almost is embarrassing.
The backfield depth is as strong as ever.
Jaylen Waddle may start as a backup receiver, but he's gotten high praise at practice. He and Jerry Jeudy may develop into the kind of receiver that Calvin Ridley and Amari Cooper were. For now, the Tide lacks that true No. 1 but has a deep group.
The offensive line has a chance to be among the SEC's best.
Alabama threw just three interceptions last season in 14 games. Don't expect a repeat, even if the Tide replicates its conservative approach with Jalen Hurts.
With Tagovailoa, expect jaw-dropping plays mixed with a few boneheaded sacks and gunslinger interceptions. That could force Saban to get more aggressive in an attempt to overcome (outscore) those mistakes.
I haven't mentioned Louisville's defense. It lost Sirmon, and that could be a good thing. Mississippi State rid itself of Sirmon after the 2016 season, and it made '17 coordinator Todd Grantham look like a genius.
As far as personnel, though, the Cardinals look like a unit poised to give up long touchdowns in bunches.
Bet Alabama "overs" early
Bama should be able to get after opposing quarterbacks and because of the talent, there's a chance you won't be able to discern the difference between this year's defensive backs and Saban's best.
For now, though, the secondary remains the biggest potential crack in the Tide defense.
If Alabama's games feature more points, sportsbooks will adapt fast. But the schedule features four consecutive teams that will attack this defense downfield.
Louisville: Pass, Petrino and a strong group of experienced receivers.
Arkansas State: Senior QB Justice Hanson threw for 3,967 yards and 37 touchdowns last year. Yes, it's Arkansas State. But don't laugh. Colorado State moved the ball on Bama in this spot in 2017.
Ole Miss: Jordan Ta'amu and Shea Patterson combined for 3,941 passing yards last year. The Rebels feature one of the nation's best receiving corps, led by preseason All-American A.J. Brown. Ole Miss' defense is bad enough to keep the offense in all-out aggression mode.
Texas A&M: If the team can grasp new coach Jimbo Fisher's complex offense, it can leverage the talent Kevin Sumlin left behind at QB and WR. Starter Nick Starkel would've drawn more preseason attention had he stayed healthy all last season. And the offensive line is bad enough to steer the Aggies away from running the ball.
It may not take long for linemakers to take notice. Or for the betting market to force their hand.
But if you're brave enough to bet against Alabama's typical style under Saban, you should be able to turn a profit on Alabama "overs" early.
Why you should bet the over on Alabama's early games
