| FTBL Trickle Down Economics and Pigskin Prognostication Week 10..

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Trickle Down Economics and Pigskin Prognostication Week 10
November 3, 2008
By Mitchell Carter (Big_Fan)

Alabama at LSU

Death Valley.

The name itself strikes fear into the hearts of players across the nation and sends women into tears. When rivals find themselves having to play in LSU’s Tiger Stadium, they hide the women, children, and booze - none of which are safe on the bayou. LSU’s home turf is viewed as one of the most foreboding venues in all of college football, but you know the old saying… It goes like this: “The Tide don’t lose in Baton Rouge.”

From 1971 to 1998 the Crimson Tide held an unprecedented 14-0-1 record on LSU’s home field, with the lone blemish being a 14-14 tie in 1985. The coach to finally break Alabama’s streak of wins “on the bayou,” now walks the sideline for Alabama and takes his undefeated and top ranked Crimson Tide into Baton Rouge, for a showdown of SEC Western division front runners, in a game scheduled for a 2:30 kickoff this Saturday.

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[Guest]

Good stuff as usual. ;tr

Although I don't have this bad feeling in the pit of my stomach as some of you have expressed. For one wierd reason or another, I'm looking forward to this game just like I looked forward to our UGA game. I feel we handle business accordingly in Tiger Stadium. Not sure why but that's what my gut is telling me. I felt worse for the Ole Miss and UK game.

Let's beat them corndogs!! :twisted:

 

[Guest]

good read... i enjoyed it.

 

[TerryP]

I've given this game some thought throughout the year and I'm left, today at least, thinking it's a much closer score even with Cody in the game.

When I look at the individual units, I find it as close to a push as it can get. Both teams have very good offensive lines and it's hard for me to give either team an advantage over the other.

When it comes to the defensive lines, here I have to fall into the "advantage LSU" category; with our without Cody. It comes down to depth. We are developing that depth, but when it comes to the backups in all the positions LSU wins this one by a nose.

WR's, got to give that to LSU as well. It's a difference of having one player that has been a play-maker versus two that have been for LSU. T

RB's, that is another offensive line situation where I see that as close to a push as well.

QB's, we'll have the advantage on that one. I think we also have it when we look at the defensive backs.

LB's. Experience gives LSU a nod here as well.

Honestly, even with our ranking, a win for Bama in this game qualifies as an upset in my opinion. At least, that's the way I saw it in the pre-season and now given home field advantage I have to think the same applies.

But, I'm going with that feeling and see Alabama winning, but in a close game.

One last note...

When I look at their record this season it isn't the 50+ point games that jump out to me as "wow" when it comes to their defense. It's the game they allowed Auburn to score 21.

If Alabama were to win convincingly, it would be because Lee has been forced into making multiple mistakes...along the same lines as Dick made when we faced Arkansas.

Today, emphasis on today, I'm thinking Bama by less a touchdown or less.

 

[Guest]

I've given this game some thought throughout the year and I'm left, today at least, thinking it's a much closer score even with Cody in the game.

When I look at the individual units, I find it as close to a push as it can get. Both teams have very good offensive lines and it's hard for me to give either team an advantage over the other.

When it comes to the defensive lines, here I have to fall into the "advantage LSU" category; with our without Cody. It comes down to depth. We are developing that depth, but when it comes to the backups in all the positions LSU wins this one by a nose.

WR's, got to give that to LSU as well. It's a difference of having one player that has been a play-maker versus two that have been for LSU. T

RB's, that is another offensive line situation where I see that as close to a push as well.

QB's, we'll have the advantage on that one. I think we also have it when we look at the defensive backs.

LB's. Experience gives LSU a nod here as well.

Honestly, even with our ranking, a win for Bama in this game qualifies as an upset in my opinion. At least, that's the way I saw it in the pre-season and now given home field advantage I have to think the same applies.

But, I'm going with that feeling and see Alabama winning, but in a close game.

One last note...

When I look at their record this season it isn't the 50+ point games that jump out to me as "wow" when it comes to their defense. It's the game they allowed Auburn to score 21.

If Alabama were to win convincingly, it would be because Lee has been forced into making multiple mistakes...along the same lines as Dick made when we faced Arkansas.

Today, emphasis on today, I'm thinking Bama by less a touchdown or less.

I don't disagree with you on the position by position comparisons, but like I have said against other teams we have played - our DL doesn't play their DL, our LB's their LB's, etc... and I will take our QB over their QB any time and any place. He will cost them points.

I will back up on their DL though... I don't know if it is coaching or development or talent, but they have given up 10 TD's on the ground. That does not speak well of their DL. Our OL versus their DL is a significant advantage in our favor. Florida gutted them running the ball, and UF had the same success running against Ole Miss that we had - not a lot, though we could gain 1 yard if we needed it.

On a 3rd & 1, do you think LSU can hold us?

As I said, there is a bit of nervousness in this game that I have not had in earlier games. If I were to make a pick on that, I would probably make the game a toss-up.

Last season we couldn't run the ball on LSU...but our top rusher was Jonathan Lowe. Grant was held in check, but our OL was the patchwork unit in the middle of the textbook 5 suspension. This season we have the starting OL intact, and Coffee + Ingram + Upchurch. I don't think JPW will be forced to throw the ball 40 times. Given the number of yards LSU has given up to teams with good rushing attacks, I don't see them getting enough offensive opportunities to score a lot of points. We will control the clock and make LSU pay for mistakes - they have 10 turnovers in their 5 SEC games, including 3 int's for TD.

In the SEC:
LSU is 12th in interceptions made - Bama 5th
LSU is 2nd in sacks against - Bama 6th
LSU is 10th in turnover margin - Bama 4th

LSU gave up over 100 yards rushing to MSU, UGA, and Florida...with UGA gaining 198 and Florida gaining 265.
Bama has only given up 100 yards on the ground once this season.

LSU will be the best OL we have faced, and they will gain some yards, but I don't see them running with consistency. If Cody plays, the middle of the field will be no man's land, and we have too much speed on the corners for them to bounce everything outside.

Could they beat us? Yes. They have a ton of talent and are a physical team...but based on the way they handled UF and UGA, I think that they are more of a danger to beat themselves.

 

[TerryP]

Looking at those rushing stats it's an easy assumption to think we should be able to because UF did. Then, I stop and look at some of the guys that had success against LSU and see very low production versus Georgia.

It's about like I mentioned earlier with those 50 point games not meaning as much in my eyes as the 21 points given up to Auburn.

We've seen people refer, even here as far as that goes, to the Jekyl and Hyde personality of our offense. That description certainly fits their season so far and in this case their defense.

It's Monday...who knows what I'll be thinking Tuesday. Seriously, so many things you can point to and have one opinion only to find something else that makes you pause.

 

[Guest]

Looking at those rushing stats it's an easy assumption to think we should be able to because UF did. Then, I stop and look at some of the guys that had success against LSU and see very low production versus Georgia.

It's about like I mentioned earlier with those 50 point games not meaning as much in my eyes as the 21 points given up to Auburn.

We've seen people refer, even here as far as that goes, to the Jekyl and Hyde personality of our offense. That description certainly fits their season so far and in this case their defense.

It's Monday...who knows what I'll be thinking Tuesday. Seriously, so many things you can point to and have one opinion only to find something else that makes you pause.

You are very much right.

There are other factors that could make a person favor LSU...it is all in how much weight you give things. The UGA game could have been much closer, and we are more like UGA than we are Florida - though I think our defense is much better than UGA's.

The 21 points to AU and 24 points to MSU are troubling. Neither team has an offense and the 24 points MSU scored is the most they have put up this season in an SEC game - and 3rd most behind their games with SE Louisian and MTSU.

 

[CRIMSONTUSKS.COM BLOG]

Bump.

 

[rolltyroll]

Alabama's offense is more balanced, and it knows what it wants to do. Our defense is better all the way around, and our coaches are twice as good.Special teams are about even, with LSU having the advantage in net punting. If we make it past the initial emotion wave unscaved, much like in Athens and in Knoxville, we will beat LSU by three touchdowns. They have shown no ability to blow anyone out. They make numerous stupid mistakes throughout the game, in every facet of the game, in every game of the year thus far. Again, if we can get out of the first quarter without making any dumb mistakes, we will take care of the Bayou Bengals. The only way they beat us is if we turn the ball over. Take care of the ball and we take care of the SEC west crown. It's that simple and I am sure that's what Coach is telling the players this week.

For LSU, its a psycological inferiority complex.The 5th year seniors and the fans subconsciously think of Saban as there father, as weird as that sounds,it's true. They know he's the reason that LSU is L-S-U. If they enter this game thinking, "we are get pay back against coach Saban for leaving us", they will get their purple and gold tails handed to them. If they approach this game with a focused mentality, they will play our butts off.

 

[Guest]

Bump for the late week crowd.

 

[FLTidefan]

I agree that alot of the comparisons are close, but I have an eery calm about this game. I think it is because of our road prowess this year. I was more nervous about OM than I am this game. It seems like the team focuses better on the road than at home. If we do win this one in the same tone that we have our previous road games, I am going to make a motion that we move all remaining games to road games.

 

[Guest]

The 21 points to AU and 24 points to MSU are troubling. Neither team has an offense and the 24 points MSU scored is the most they have put up this season in an SEC game - and 3rd most behind their games with SE Louisian and MTSU.

This is the one that gives me the most hope even though we know they'll probably give us more fight. I didn't watch the Miss. State game, but that one must have been a fluke or either just a lot of mistakes.

 

[Guest]

I have an eery calm about this game.

Yeah, me too. :shock: :shock: :shock: :shock: :shock: :shock: :shock: :shock: :shock: :shock: :shock:

Not! ^^sar

Y'all might want to send help sometime Sat. afternoon. :wink: