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A Look Back at the Iron Bowl
The 2008 Iron Bowl was a thing of beauty. By this time it has been hashed over repeatedly, so we will not do that here...other than to say, the Trickle Down column was once again extremely accurate in its prediction. Last week's call was Alabama 45 Auburn 7, and as usual the margin of error was +/- 1 TD. Take one TD off of both scores and you have 38-0, the exact score of the game when the missed extra points are out of the equation. The game went exactly as predicted.
A Look Back at the Trickle Down Concept
Trickle down economic policy is based on the idea that when the rich are richer, the wealth trickles down to the working class. As it pertains to football, high school player development, coupled with scholarship limits, has created a situation where there is more talent than the top tier programs can lock up. Because of this, the idea that "on any given Saturday" team A can beat team B, has become a reality. Coaching is amplified, as is character of the athletes. Alabama has played numerous teams this year who possessed more talent, yet they find themselves at 12-0. On the other side, coaching snaffu's have been amplified, as have teams failing the gut-check of tough competition.
On to Florida
The water lizards strike fear into the hearts of men, cause women to swoon, and children to wet the bed. According to most pundits, the SEC title game has already been decided. Once again, Alabama will be playing a team with more talent. Top to bottom, there is really no comparison between the two teams. This game will not be decided simply by player match-ups. If it was, the Vegas line would be too conservative, and Alabama could just mail it in.
Florida possesses so much that Alabama does not - a Heisman QB...a Heisman candidate RB, incredible speed at receiver...defenders who can leap tall buildings in a single bound...and a Pope for a coach. There is one more thing they possess that Alabama does not...a loss in 2008. After the Loss to Ole Miss, Florida appeared to rally the troops and display the character trait that has brought Alabama to this point. Florida has completely eviscerated every opponent since the upset loss to Ole Miss, however that fact does not tell the whole story.
Florida Post-Ole Miss
The pundits and predictors are basing the impending Florida victory on what UF has done since the loss to Ole Miss. The point spreads have been impressive, and Florida has looked like a man among boys. Lets look at their wins since the Ole Miss loss...
The first team Florida demolished in the post-Mississippi run, was Arkansas. The Hogs really struggled in 2008, suffering blowout losses to Alabama and Texas, in addition to the Gators. Arkansas also beat Tulsa and LSU, and lost a 2 point game to the same Ole Miss team that beat Florida in the swamp. Comparing the way Alabama and Florida beat Arkansas is interesting. Alabama had a 35-7 halftime lead over the Hogs, and could have named the score on the razorpigs. Florida was up 17-7 after 3 quarters, and had 3 long (and fast) drives in the fourth quarter, against a tired Arkansas defense.
Against LSU, Florida jumped out early and LSU abandoned the running game. Lacking a passing threat, LSU was unable to sustain drives, and Florida's defense victimized the LSU offense by scoring off an interception return, and the defense gave the offense several opportunities with a short field. Still, it was an impressive win.
The 63-5 demolition of Kentucky is an impressive score. Once again Florida jumped out early, this time on the strength of two blocked punts. Florida was up 14-0 after drives of 3 and 1 yards. Florida victimized the UK offense with another INT for TD. Kentucky, missing their best offensive threat, was forced out of their gameplan, and folded.
The Georgia game was an oddity. The Bulldogs actually outgained the gators, with a balanced 188/185 passing-running output. In the third quarter, UGA let what was a manageable game get away from them, thanks to an interception setting up the gators at the 1, and a fumble giving the Gators the ball at the 20. The Achilles of UGA all season has been their secondary, and Florida connected on a long TD pass in the 3rd quarter. What had been a 14-3 game was over after 3. Of course, Alabama was up 31-0 on UGA at the half in Athens. While UGA closed the gap, Alabama's conservative play in the second half allowed it to happen.
Vandy was up next. Their offense has been terrible in 2008, which doesn't bode well when you need to limit Florida's offensive opportunities. On Florida's first four scoring drives, their average starting field position was the Vandy 45.
A lot of people were impressed with the 56-6 demolition of South Carolina, who had the top rated defense in the conference, and the score was impressive. The misleading part is that the 21-0 first quarter score was on the strength of an interception return for TD, a 29 yard drive after interception, and a fumble recovery on a poorly executed kickoff return lateral setting up Tebow at the USC 1. Spurrier panicked. Florida took advantage of opportunities (the sign of a good team), and ran up the score.
The Citadel...well...it is the Citadel.
Finally, FSU. Probably the most impressive game Florida has played in the second half of the season, was against rival FSU. While FSU was not a great team - with losses to Wake, Ga. Tech, and Boston College, Florida had two drives over 80 yards. Florida did have a 20 yard TD drive, and 38 yard TD drive, to widen the margin. Against FSU, Florida had 317 rushing yards.
A common thread among all these victories, is the way Florida has been as much of an opportunist as juggernaut. The victories have still been impressive. The Florida defense and special teams have contributed greatly to the point spreads.
Alabama Post Ole-Miss
As was the case with Florida, Alabama played Ole Miss in 2008, and just like Florida, Alabama struggled against Nutt's Rebels. The significant difference was that Alabama managed to escape with a W. After jumping to a 17-7 halftime lead, Florida gave up 24 second half points, while being held to just 13. Alabama was up 24-3 at the intermission, and was held scoreless in the second half - while yielding 17 to the Rebs. Neither game was a fluke. Nutt is outstanding at halftime adjustments, and the physical Ole Miss offense moved the ball on both teams.
The Next game was against Tennessee in Knoxville. Tennessee was a common opponent of both Alabama and Florida, and the final scores (29-9 and 30-6) were similar. Alabama had more offensive success against the Vols than did the Gators, and unlike Florida, Bama did not get the benefit of 3 turnovers. In fact, the UT game represents one of the few instances where Alabama was negative in turnover ratio. Both teams held the Tennessee offense in check, Alabama holding UT to 173 - while Florida was outgained 258 to 243.
Arkansas State is Arkansas state. They were improved in 2008, and did beat TAMU, but still, the 35-0 shutout was expected.
The dynamic of the LSU game was significantly different than the Florida/LSU match-up. The return of Saban was a rallying point for LSU, and a distraction for Alabama, yet the Tide overcame the adversity and won in overtime.
MSU has been a riddle wrapped in an enigma. Bama blew out the Bulldogs 32-7, yet the Bulldogs beat Arkansas and Vandy, and played other teams close. It was a dominant performance.
Auburn...little needs to be said. Alabama owned the Tigers. Over 400 yards of offense and 3 rushing TD's against a defense who had only given up 4 on the season.
The Matchup
Florida has speed, skill, and strength. Alabama has strength, skill, and speed. In some ways, this game reminds me of the UGA or Clemson games. While UF is better than either, the setup is similar. How well can Florida's offense move the ball against a defense like Alabama's? How well can Florida's defense do against an OL like Alabama has? If given the choice between incredible skill players with mediocre lines, or mediocre skill players and dominant lines, I will take the latter every time. In this game, both teams have better than mediocre units, and that is what makes it so interesting.
Bama Defense verses Florida Offense
In the Trenches.
Florida has a large and experienced offensive line. In the spread offense, they do a good job in their blocking zones, and physicality is not so much of an issue. Alabama's defensive line will get significant push, and with Cody in the middle, the Tebow up the gut play will be rendered ineffective. The key matchup will be Pouncey against Cody. If Cody can eat up a double or even triple team, Alabama will be able to turn loose the linebackers and completely shut down the Florida running game. Against LSU, Cody was still suffering from the affects of his knee injury, and LSU's massive OL was able to control him. Now healthy, that may not be so easy for the zone blocking Gators.
Florida Rushing
Percy Harvin is the Gator's #2 rusher (by about 100 yards), and the #1 receiver. If he is not able to play (rumors suggest he is out), it is bad news for the Gators. Rainey is a good RB, but not an every down runner. Kestahn Moore will see increased playing time if Harvin cannot go, but has not been effective this season. Harvin is the major threat to get the corner against the Bama defense. If he cannot go, the game will end up on Tebow's shoulders (and arm).
Florida Passing
If Harvin cannot go, Tebow's favorite target and biggest deep threat, is gone. He has been the most productive receiver for the Gators, and has more TD's than anyone else. Still, Florida is deep and has great speed. The key will be how well Tebow handles the defenses that Saban throws at him. Alabama will use multiple looks - some of which will confuse him. The fans will come into play as well...when Bama is on defense, noise is needed.
Tebow has great numbers in the passing game. While his yards are not that great, his efficiency and completion to interception ratio is outstanding. A large part of that is Florida's ability to pass when they want to pass. If Alabama makes them one dimensional, they will do to Florida what Florida has done to everyone else.
How will Tebow do when he has to throw it 40 times in one game?
Alabama on Offense
It all starts up front. With Florida missing several defensive linemen off of their three deep to injury, the ability of Alabama to wear down the UF defense comes into play. Florida will likely stack the box and dare Alabama to beat them throwing (as everyone has), and Bama cannot afford to have Wilson throwing any of those lazy passes into the flat. Florida has a good secondary, and the issue will become what they can do with Julio to limit yards after catch. Look for Alabama to run drag routes and roll JPW out of the pocket like they did against AU. If Alabama can pass when they want to, and get the running game clicking, it will limit Florida's offensive opportunities. Alabama will play the part of Florida, forcing the Gators out of their game plan. With Harvin out, and Alabama's defensive front, it is a possibility.
Special Teams
Early in the season Alabama had some issues with coverage. Florida will present one of the most dangerous returners that Bama has seen this year. On the other hand, Arenas will be the best return that Florida has seen. Alabama does not need to be spectacular in special teams, but they do need to be solid. Bama cannot afford to get behind due to special teams breakdowns. Special teams play put Bama in a tough spot several times against AU. That cannot happen this week.
Coaching
Both coaching staffs are outstanding. Meyer has proven the critics wrong, showing that his spread can work in the SEC. Saban is a defensive guru. Petrino observed that Saban's goal is to take away what you do best, and make you fall to plan B. Meyer has a team loaded with five star talent that can burn you at any time, and he does a great job of coaching them up. His emphasis on special teams is obvious. What is interesting about Florida, is that they are #1 in the conference in Turnover ratio, which is an indication of a disciplined team, yet they are 11th in penalties - which is an indication of a lack of discipline. If the real Florida stands up, which will it be?
Trickle Down Category
This week it is reversed. The Florida Gators are loaded with top talent. Alabama has a few, but is a blue collar bunch from top to bottom. This game is Apollo Creed verses Rocky Balboa.
Intangibles
Alabama has not figured out how to lose. Florida has. Florida has blown out everybody since Ole Miss beat them, and Alabama has blown out four of the last five. Alabama has the best defense in the conference, Florida the top offense. The two teams are #1 and #2 in virtually every important category - and the AP poll.
Bottom Line
Florida is talented, but they know that they can lose. Alabama is not as flashy, but does not believe that they can lose. Alabama cannot shoot themselves in the face like everyone else has against the Gators. Saban has the team playing level headed, and if they were not overwhelmed by the UGA blackout, they will not be afraid of Florida. Alabama will take away what Florida does best - run and use Tebow's legs, forcing the Gators to throw the ball.
Tebow will have as many interceptions in this game as he as had all season (2). Some have said that if this game is a blowout, UF wins - if it is close, Alabama wins. I disagree. Alabama is the underdog. LSU was a prohibitive underdog to UT in the SECCG at the end of Saban's second season in Baton Rouge.
Bama wins...by a surprising margin.
Alabama 34
Florida 13
The 2008 Iron Bowl was a thing of beauty. By this time it has been hashed over repeatedly, so we will not do that here...other than to say, the Trickle Down column was once again extremely accurate in its prediction. Last week's call was Alabama 45 Auburn 7, and as usual the margin of error was +/- 1 TD. Take one TD off of both scores and you have 38-0, the exact score of the game when the missed extra points are out of the equation. The game went exactly as predicted.
A Look Back at the Trickle Down Concept
Trickle down economic policy is based on the idea that when the rich are richer, the wealth trickles down to the working class. As it pertains to football, high school player development, coupled with scholarship limits, has created a situation where there is more talent than the top tier programs can lock up. Because of this, the idea that "on any given Saturday" team A can beat team B, has become a reality. Coaching is amplified, as is character of the athletes. Alabama has played numerous teams this year who possessed more talent, yet they find themselves at 12-0. On the other side, coaching snaffu's have been amplified, as have teams failing the gut-check of tough competition.
On to Florida
The water lizards strike fear into the hearts of men, cause women to swoon, and children to wet the bed. According to most pundits, the SEC title game has already been decided. Once again, Alabama will be playing a team with more talent. Top to bottom, there is really no comparison between the two teams. This game will not be decided simply by player match-ups. If it was, the Vegas line would be too conservative, and Alabama could just mail it in.
Florida possesses so much that Alabama does not - a Heisman QB...a Heisman candidate RB, incredible speed at receiver...defenders who can leap tall buildings in a single bound...and a Pope for a coach. There is one more thing they possess that Alabama does not...a loss in 2008. After the Loss to Ole Miss, Florida appeared to rally the troops and display the character trait that has brought Alabama to this point. Florida has completely eviscerated every opponent since the upset loss to Ole Miss, however that fact does not tell the whole story.
Florida Post-Ole Miss
The pundits and predictors are basing the impending Florida victory on what UF has done since the loss to Ole Miss. The point spreads have been impressive, and Florida has looked like a man among boys. Lets look at their wins since the Ole Miss loss...
The first team Florida demolished in the post-Mississippi run, was Arkansas. The Hogs really struggled in 2008, suffering blowout losses to Alabama and Texas, in addition to the Gators. Arkansas also beat Tulsa and LSU, and lost a 2 point game to the same Ole Miss team that beat Florida in the swamp. Comparing the way Alabama and Florida beat Arkansas is interesting. Alabama had a 35-7 halftime lead over the Hogs, and could have named the score on the razorpigs. Florida was up 17-7 after 3 quarters, and had 3 long (and fast) drives in the fourth quarter, against a tired Arkansas defense.
Against LSU, Florida jumped out early and LSU abandoned the running game. Lacking a passing threat, LSU was unable to sustain drives, and Florida's defense victimized the LSU offense by scoring off an interception return, and the defense gave the offense several opportunities with a short field. Still, it was an impressive win.
The 63-5 demolition of Kentucky is an impressive score. Once again Florida jumped out early, this time on the strength of two blocked punts. Florida was up 14-0 after drives of 3 and 1 yards. Florida victimized the UK offense with another INT for TD. Kentucky, missing their best offensive threat, was forced out of their gameplan, and folded.
The Georgia game was an oddity. The Bulldogs actually outgained the gators, with a balanced 188/185 passing-running output. In the third quarter, UGA let what was a manageable game get away from them, thanks to an interception setting up the gators at the 1, and a fumble giving the Gators the ball at the 20. The Achilles of UGA all season has been their secondary, and Florida connected on a long TD pass in the 3rd quarter. What had been a 14-3 game was over after 3. Of course, Alabama was up 31-0 on UGA at the half in Athens. While UGA closed the gap, Alabama's conservative play in the second half allowed it to happen.
Vandy was up next. Their offense has been terrible in 2008, which doesn't bode well when you need to limit Florida's offensive opportunities. On Florida's first four scoring drives, their average starting field position was the Vandy 45.
A lot of people were impressed with the 56-6 demolition of South Carolina, who had the top rated defense in the conference, and the score was impressive. The misleading part is that the 21-0 first quarter score was on the strength of an interception return for TD, a 29 yard drive after interception, and a fumble recovery on a poorly executed kickoff return lateral setting up Tebow at the USC 1. Spurrier panicked. Florida took advantage of opportunities (the sign of a good team), and ran up the score.
The Citadel...well...it is the Citadel.
Finally, FSU. Probably the most impressive game Florida has played in the second half of the season, was against rival FSU. While FSU was not a great team - with losses to Wake, Ga. Tech, and Boston College, Florida had two drives over 80 yards. Florida did have a 20 yard TD drive, and 38 yard TD drive, to widen the margin. Against FSU, Florida had 317 rushing yards.
A common thread among all these victories, is the way Florida has been as much of an opportunist as juggernaut. The victories have still been impressive. The Florida defense and special teams have contributed greatly to the point spreads.
Alabama Post Ole-Miss
As was the case with Florida, Alabama played Ole Miss in 2008, and just like Florida, Alabama struggled against Nutt's Rebels. The significant difference was that Alabama managed to escape with a W. After jumping to a 17-7 halftime lead, Florida gave up 24 second half points, while being held to just 13. Alabama was up 24-3 at the intermission, and was held scoreless in the second half - while yielding 17 to the Rebs. Neither game was a fluke. Nutt is outstanding at halftime adjustments, and the physical Ole Miss offense moved the ball on both teams.
The Next game was against Tennessee in Knoxville. Tennessee was a common opponent of both Alabama and Florida, and the final scores (29-9 and 30-6) were similar. Alabama had more offensive success against the Vols than did the Gators, and unlike Florida, Bama did not get the benefit of 3 turnovers. In fact, the UT game represents one of the few instances where Alabama was negative in turnover ratio. Both teams held the Tennessee offense in check, Alabama holding UT to 173 - while Florida was outgained 258 to 243.
Arkansas State is Arkansas state. They were improved in 2008, and did beat TAMU, but still, the 35-0 shutout was expected.
The dynamic of the LSU game was significantly different than the Florida/LSU match-up. The return of Saban was a rallying point for LSU, and a distraction for Alabama, yet the Tide overcame the adversity and won in overtime.
MSU has been a riddle wrapped in an enigma. Bama blew out the Bulldogs 32-7, yet the Bulldogs beat Arkansas and Vandy, and played other teams close. It was a dominant performance.
Auburn...little needs to be said. Alabama owned the Tigers. Over 400 yards of offense and 3 rushing TD's against a defense who had only given up 4 on the season.
The Matchup
Florida has speed, skill, and strength. Alabama has strength, skill, and speed. In some ways, this game reminds me of the UGA or Clemson games. While UF is better than either, the setup is similar. How well can Florida's offense move the ball against a defense like Alabama's? How well can Florida's defense do against an OL like Alabama has? If given the choice between incredible skill players with mediocre lines, or mediocre skill players and dominant lines, I will take the latter every time. In this game, both teams have better than mediocre units, and that is what makes it so interesting.
Bama Defense verses Florida Offense
In the Trenches.
Florida has a large and experienced offensive line. In the spread offense, they do a good job in their blocking zones, and physicality is not so much of an issue. Alabama's defensive line will get significant push, and with Cody in the middle, the Tebow up the gut play will be rendered ineffective. The key matchup will be Pouncey against Cody. If Cody can eat up a double or even triple team, Alabama will be able to turn loose the linebackers and completely shut down the Florida running game. Against LSU, Cody was still suffering from the affects of his knee injury, and LSU's massive OL was able to control him. Now healthy, that may not be so easy for the zone blocking Gators.
Florida Rushing
Percy Harvin is the Gator's #2 rusher (by about 100 yards), and the #1 receiver. If he is not able to play (rumors suggest he is out), it is bad news for the Gators. Rainey is a good RB, but not an every down runner. Kestahn Moore will see increased playing time if Harvin cannot go, but has not been effective this season. Harvin is the major threat to get the corner against the Bama defense. If he cannot go, the game will end up on Tebow's shoulders (and arm).
Florida Passing
If Harvin cannot go, Tebow's favorite target and biggest deep threat, is gone. He has been the most productive receiver for the Gators, and has more TD's than anyone else. Still, Florida is deep and has great speed. The key will be how well Tebow handles the defenses that Saban throws at him. Alabama will use multiple looks - some of which will confuse him. The fans will come into play as well...when Bama is on defense, noise is needed.
Tebow has great numbers in the passing game. While his yards are not that great, his efficiency and completion to interception ratio is outstanding. A large part of that is Florida's ability to pass when they want to pass. If Alabama makes them one dimensional, they will do to Florida what Florida has done to everyone else.
How will Tebow do when he has to throw it 40 times in one game?
Alabama on Offense
It all starts up front. With Florida missing several defensive linemen off of their three deep to injury, the ability of Alabama to wear down the UF defense comes into play. Florida will likely stack the box and dare Alabama to beat them throwing (as everyone has), and Bama cannot afford to have Wilson throwing any of those lazy passes into the flat. Florida has a good secondary, and the issue will become what they can do with Julio to limit yards after catch. Look for Alabama to run drag routes and roll JPW out of the pocket like they did against AU. If Alabama can pass when they want to, and get the running game clicking, it will limit Florida's offensive opportunities. Alabama will play the part of Florida, forcing the Gators out of their game plan. With Harvin out, and Alabama's defensive front, it is a possibility.
Special Teams
Early in the season Alabama had some issues with coverage. Florida will present one of the most dangerous returners that Bama has seen this year. On the other hand, Arenas will be the best return that Florida has seen. Alabama does not need to be spectacular in special teams, but they do need to be solid. Bama cannot afford to get behind due to special teams breakdowns. Special teams play put Bama in a tough spot several times against AU. That cannot happen this week.
Coaching
Both coaching staffs are outstanding. Meyer has proven the critics wrong, showing that his spread can work in the SEC. Saban is a defensive guru. Petrino observed that Saban's goal is to take away what you do best, and make you fall to plan B. Meyer has a team loaded with five star talent that can burn you at any time, and he does a great job of coaching them up. His emphasis on special teams is obvious. What is interesting about Florida, is that they are #1 in the conference in Turnover ratio, which is an indication of a disciplined team, yet they are 11th in penalties - which is an indication of a lack of discipline. If the real Florida stands up, which will it be?
Trickle Down Category
This week it is reversed. The Florida Gators are loaded with top talent. Alabama has a few, but is a blue collar bunch from top to bottom. This game is Apollo Creed verses Rocky Balboa.
Intangibles
Alabama has not figured out how to lose. Florida has. Florida has blown out everybody since Ole Miss beat them, and Alabama has blown out four of the last five. Alabama has the best defense in the conference, Florida the top offense. The two teams are #1 and #2 in virtually every important category - and the AP poll.
Bottom Line
Florida is talented, but they know that they can lose. Alabama is not as flashy, but does not believe that they can lose. Alabama cannot shoot themselves in the face like everyone else has against the Gators. Saban has the team playing level headed, and if they were not overwhelmed by the UGA blackout, they will not be afraid of Florida. Alabama will take away what Florida does best - run and use Tebow's legs, forcing the Gators to throw the ball.
Tebow will have as many interceptions in this game as he as had all season (2). Some have said that if this game is a blowout, UF wins - if it is close, Alabama wins. I disagree. Alabama is the underdog. LSU was a prohibitive underdog to UT in the SECCG at the end of Saban's second season in Baton Rouge.
Bama wins...by a surprising margin.
Alabama 34
Florida 13
