🏈 Pre-Game Thread: Bama vs Mississippi State

[TerryP]

The Road To ATL Continues ...

 

[the Bookie]

Alabama at Mississippi State

Outcomes w/Current Odds

Bama wins : 100/265 ()

MSU wins : 225/100 ()

MSU +7 : 100/110 ()

Bama -7 : 100/265 ()

Place your wagers here...

 

[bamaledge]

I'm not so much worried about our D, dey dayum good. I think, not often but sometimes, that cns and cks will have them pumped and ready to go. I pray the O shows up.

 

[bama alum]

The only concern (and it's not a great one) I have is being able to contain Dak when he's rolling out. Wilson will be able to snag any jump ball with our DBs. LSWho? for the most part contained them and (barely) won. We dominated Lester's boys. We'll be all right. Bama's @ -6; I'm taking that action with Bama bucks later this week.

 

[Bamabacker]

Coach said at 11:46 Eastern (10:46 Central) on Saturday it was time to start preparing for the next one. This one was a big win, but Miss St looks like a classic trap game. Definitely the best passing team we have seen since Ole Miss. How are we going to stop Dak Prescott?

While I don't agree with the 24hr applying to fans but the football players have to stay focused on the task at hand and we seem to have a coach that can do that pretty well.

With that said, I felt very confident about the LSU game because they had not played a very tough team. I feel the same about MSU. Their defense is good and will give us minor difficulties but only if our offense is flat. I don't see that happening. The Ole Miss reality check and the bye week shows a re-focused team. We're playing great.
MSUs offense is not as good as last years but with each game they look more protective of Dak.

 

[UAgrad93]

I felt so confident about the Corndog game ( I said BAMA by 10-14), I watched State Thursday night and took notes. Dak will be the best QB we will face but I don't think their WRs are as talented.

 

[Bama Ravens]

Yeah, they always play us tough following LSU. I'm confident that we can and will win, but this isn't a game we can come out flat in. I think we have an edge in every position (except QB), but Dak is a great player. He'll present a challenge for us, especially when he rolls out, which will open up his ability to run or throw. When he does roll out our DBs have to stay with their guys, I'd rather him run for a few yards and let the LBs handle him, than get a ball thrown over our heads.

 

[planomateo]

I felt so confident about the Corndog game ( I said BAMA by 10-14), I watched State Thursday night and took notes. Dak will be the best QB we will face but I don't think their WRs are as talented.

Agree on both (except I didn't take notes because I was working the concession stand for one of our JV games).

 

[jdpas29]

Qb read option. That is why state could stay in the game. Win? Eh...

 

[TerryP]

I'm not going to confuse Dak-2015 with Dak-2014. I fear a lot of people will.

It's important to note that the majority of the time Dak got going in the running game in 2014 it was because Josh Robinson was already getting his yards. A good example of that is LSU last year where Robinson was a few yards shy of breaking the 200 mark and Dak had over 100 himself.

Contrast that with Ole Miss: Robinson didn't eclipse the 50 yard mark: Dak didn't either.

The Bama game last year was a bit different than the rest of their season. Dak did run between 20-25 times that game. He had one run for 22 yards, and finished the day with 82. It boils down to about 20 carries for 60 yards.

ALL OF THAT ... against a good defense, but not near as good as the one Bama is fielding in 2015.

Let's not forget: 14 of their 22 starters from 2014 ... no longer in Starkville.

 

[TerryP]

Qb read option. That is why state could stay in the game.

And they are going to pitch to whom?

LSU held MSU to less than 50 yards rushing: as a team.
MSU is ranked 95th in the NCAA in rushing for 2015. With this schedule:

 

[bamaledge]

Damn, that's big ten scheduling right there. MSU D hasn't stopped any body really. The barn even got 9 points.

 

[RTB X Bot]

 

[jdpas29]

And they are going to pitch to whom?

LSU held MSU to less than 50 yards rushing: as a team.
MSU is ranked 95th in the NCAA in rushing for 2015. With this schedule:

View attachment 5034

Good question. Haven't watched them play yet but generally that's what Dak has done to keep them in games at times. So I guess they have no one at running back since Robinson left?

 

[UAgrad93]

They have a kid named Shumpert I believe but he doesn't look like he can take a pounding like Robinson did last year. They will run the zone read and Dak keep it or hand off and then run a speed option where he attacks the inside shoulder of the end and either keep it or pitch it.

 

[TerryP]

So I guess they have no one at running back since Robinson left?

They have a kid named Shumpert I believe but he doesn't look like he can take a pounding like Robinson did last year.

I don't see Shumpert being in the same league as Robinson. Just as one example, going purely by this years numbers.

Last year Robinson finished the season in the top 50 (NCAA) in rushing. Dak was in the top 70. In the top 100 this season, neither Shumpert or Dak can be found. Understand, that's with the 100th ranked runner averaging a tad under 65 yards per game.

Do those numbers really mean anything? We are nine games into a 12 game season so it's a pretty safe bet to think those numbers do tell a large part of the story.
What does that mean for Bama's defense? If we take these first nine games and run comparisons you'll see a pretty big difference in competition. As another example, you'll find Fournette, Hurd, Collins, Carson, Michel ... all of these guys you'll find in that same top 100.

 

[TerryP]

Let me add something here.

@TheChief This is an opinion mixed with a little analysis, but still an opinion. You're more than welcomed to call me an idiot! :devil:

The LSU hangover isn't a myth.

Let's take this into context though. Since this run for the Tide started in 2008 they've seen one loss following the LSU game; A&M in 2012. Is that applicable for this weekend?

No. Dak isn't Johnny. More importantly, this Bulldog team isn't that A&M team of 2012. If you recall, A&M was a good ball club that year within the conference and proved their mettle outside of the conference against OU. Even with the way A&M was playing, combined with the "LSU hangover," the Aggies still escaped with a narrow win.

I'm not saying Mississippi State has no chance in this game. I am saying we can't draw a comparison with that loss to this game. Dak and Johnny are two completely different ball players. Dak is a good passer, a good runner, but he's not a elusive, fleet-footed guy that Johnny was that season. In past seasons the Tide defense has done well containing these types of QB's. (And that's setting aside the fact we haven't seen a defensive line like this one in Saban's tenure.) I fully expect this defense to be hitting him like they did last season ... after a yard, maybe two.

I know people have been pointing to how the Bama team has done on the road. Let me build on that just a second.

Defense travels.

While an offense may have some issues with communication on the road, with the D it's not a timing issue ... it's not much of a communication issue. On defense you don't deal with the possibility of one player—like the QB—having a bad day.

Defense travels, and will.

While I don't bet on Bama often I am on this game: Bama to cover.

 

[TheChief]

Let me add something here.

@TheChief This is an opinion mixed with a little analysis, but still an opinion. You're more than welcomed to call me an idiot! :devil:

The LSU hangover isn't a myth.

Let's take this into context though. Since this run for the Tide started in 2008 they've seen one loss following the LSU game; A&M in 2012. Is that applicable for this weekend?

No. Dak isn't Johnny. More importantly, this Bulldog team isn't that A&M team of 2012. If you recall, A&M was a good ball club that year within the conference and proved their mettle outside of the conference against OU. Even with the way A&M was playing, combined with the "LSU hangover," the Aggies still escaped with a narrow win.

I'm not saying Mississippi State has no chance in this game. I am saying we can't draw a comparison with that loss to this game. Dak and Johnny are two completely different ball players. Dak is a good passer, a good runner, but he's not a elusive, fleet-footed guy that Johnny was that season. In past seasons the Tide defense has done well containing these types of QB's. (And that's setting aside the fact we haven't seen a defensive line like this one in Saban's tenure.) I fully expect this defense to be hitting him like they did last season ... after a yard, maybe two.

I know people have been pointing to how the Bama team has done on the road. Let me build on that just a second.

Defense travels.

While an offense may have some issues with communication on the road, with the D it's not a timing issue ... it's not much of a communication issue. On defense you don't deal with the possibility of one player—like the QB—having a bad day.

Defense travels, and will.

While I don't bet on Bama often I am on this game: Bama to cover.

@TerryP I wouldn't call you an idiot because you are most always accurate in your assessments. Joey Galloway and Danny Kannel are obviously flawed, idiots if you will.

As far as betting goes, let me offer this observation. If you bet on Bama to not cover the spread, you will be happy if they do or they don't.

 

[Bamaholic#1]

Bama will dominate MSU. I'm not always so confident, but I am on this. Statements will be made on both side of the ball.
The cowbells will not score. This D is on a mission to be the best Bama D ever.
King Henry will put a stranglehold on the Heisman. 200 net yards 3 tds
We will have 2 receivers with 100 yards each, Ridley and Stewart.
This is not a trap game..it's a statement game!
....Want some of my kool-aid?...I'm drunk in the spirit!

 

[UAgrad93]

Here is my stat of the week. Both State and BAMA have played 9 games each.
BAMA defense faced 575 snaps and given up 2388 yards. While #FailState defense has face 682 snaps and given up 3324 yards. I don't think that defense can handle Henry being crammed down their throats for 4 quarters much like the LSwho Paper Tigers!!