Here is how I see it:
QB- MSU
RB- Bama
OL- MSU
PK- Bama
DL- Bama
LB- Bama
DB- MSU
P-Bama
Coaching Staff- Bama
Intangibles- Bama must ground and pound to open the passing game. Cook cannot be allowed to stand in the pocket and pick us apart. I look for an old styled, smash mouth game.
Bama wins 24-17
MSU QB and WR's vs Bama secondary: Push. Might be slight edge to Cook
Cook is a good QB and will get picked in the first round. Burbridge is also a good receiver that can stretch the field and test Bama deep. However, Bama's secondary has been without a doubt been solid all year and is ranked 16th in pass defense. Playmakers like Jackson, Humphrey, and Minkah, who have multiple INT's, make it difficult for anyone to pass. IMO, if Cook is to have success, it's going to attacking the middle of the field against Smith, not Cyrus or Humphrey when they're left on an island. Bama is 2nd in the nation in passes defended, with 81 passes defended, and 65 passes broken up. I know this is irrelevant, but one thing I was really impressed last year with Ohio State was the one-on-one battles they one vs our DB's. Now I know this years secondary is much different, but if MSU is going to take shots downfield, they are going to need their receivers to win the one-on-one battles. Cook is an experienced smart QB, so Bama cannot get lazy in pass defense.
MSU RB's and O-Line vs Bama front 7: Bama.
Do I even have to do an analysis here? The one thing I will say though that Michigan State's offensive line is very experienced with 3 SR's, 1 JR, and one Sophomore. Also, they seem to have a good RB by committee, with 3 rushers nearly over 500 yards on the season ( Mandre London has 489). For MSU to win this game, they have to run the ball successfully and set up 3rd and manageable. With the big boys up front led by A'Shawn, Reed, Allen, and Ragland, I see it hard for any team to run on Alabama.
Interesting stat: In the last 5 games, Alabama has not allowed an opponent to rush over 100 yards. Opponents are only gaining 66.8 yards rushes per game vs this Alabama defense. Also, Alabama has only allowed a rusher run for more than 20 yards 6 times this year, which is 2nd in the country. Compare this to last year where Alabama allowed 11.
Coker and WR's vs Michigan State secondary: Slight edge to Bama IMO.
Giving Bama a slight edge due to the fact that Michigan State has the 74th ranked passing defense in the nation, and Stewart has finally came down lately with big catches. Never mind the fact that Ridley has been amazing all year and has the talent to high point the ball. Along with this Mullaney is potential wideout that could have a great day if Michigan State isn't prepared. Great set of hands, solid route runner, knows how to get under the defense, and has been very reliable on 3rd downs.
MSU does have 15 INT's on the year, which is only 1 less than what Alabama has. I give Bama a slight edge due to the fact that Coker can be streaky at times, and when under pressure, he does tend to throw some 50/50 balls. Big games like this, I hope he avoids that. Coker is impressive in short-intermediate throws IMO. His throw to Mullaney in the endzone yesterday was about as good of a ball you can throw in a tight window like that.
Bama's RB's and Oline vs Michigan State's front 7: Don't be shocked, but I am favoring MSU here.
MSU's defense really swarms to the ball in the few games I've seen. Against Iowa, they gave up only 52 rushing yards and held them to 2.1 yards per rush. Now of course they have a big task at hand, trying to contain Henry, who hasn't been stopped all year. For Bama to have success, I believe they will have to do a more pistol set with Nyeswander at FB. Florida did a great job of getting penetration up front and filling all the gaps to contain Henry. As a result, Henry's longest run was about 10 yards up until the 4th quarter. Slow developing plays will not work on this MSU defense. Bama has had a lot of troubles up front with penalties, allowing players to slip by up front, and in zone blocking. MSU will load the box and I think they'll have success early on.
This is going to be a great game IMO. A lot of signs point to Alabama winning, but Michigan State deserves a little more credit than they're getting/going to get.
