F
Fox Sports- Stewart
Will Alabama, Auburn, LSU, Texas A&M and others just beat each other up?
One of the perils of covering a college football season is that I unavoidably draw grand conclusions based on a very small and evolving sample size. Last November, I outdid myself in regrettable fashion, proclaiming the SEC West to be "the most dominant division ever," only to watch its teams go 2-5 in bowl season, 0-3 in New Year's Six games.
Lesson learned. I should really leave such delusional grandiose to the people who do it best -- rap moguls. It was a pretty bad swing and a miss on my part -- like trying to fling a kettlebell at someone.
Hence, I now approach questions like this one with newfound caution.
Hey Stewart. I like to judge the strength of a conference or division by the quality of the weakest teams. That said, the SEC West is absolutely loaded, with Vegas currently predicting Mississippi State and Texas A&M to finish near the bottom. Do you think this could be the year where all the SEC West teams finish the regular season with three-plus losses? If this were to happen, and if the West champion wins the SEC championship, would the SEC be shut out of the playoff?
-- Jeff Pretzel, Houston
Instead of the phrase "absolutely loaded," let's go with "unusually deep and competitive." That's why this year's SEC West is fascinating. I could see as many as five teams (all but Arkansas and Mississippi State) winning the division, and I could see all but two (Alabama and Auburn) finishing seventh. Which means some coach that makes $4 million a year, regularly recruits top-15 classes and whose fans genuinely believe right now they can win the division is in fact going to finish seventh.
The operative word here is "parity." In fact, the SEC West has become a lot like the NFL, where essentially three-fourths of the league could finish anywhere from 6-10 to 10-6, which itself can be the difference between one or two last-second plays going for or against you. Most of the SEC West teams are similarly bunched together talent-wise, and the difference between 10-2 and 7-5 will come down to who stays healthy, who doesn't fumble at the 1-yard line in the closing seconds, etc.
I could definitely see everyone finishing with at least two losses. It's happened before -- LSU in 2007 -- and it will happen again. But three losses across the board seems far-fetched. A three-loss team has not represented that division in Atlanta since Arkansas in 2002, and even then only because 10-2 Alabama was ineligible. The notion that not one team would manage to distinguish itself seems highly unlikely, especially given the disparity in crossover games.
But if -- if -- Jeff's scenario comes true and the SEC produces a three-loss champ, of course it's going to be left out of the playoff. The way last season turned out, a two-loss champ wouldn't have made it. It's time to move away from the BCS-era mindset that the SEC is untouchable. The past two postseasons have shown otherwise. It's still the most competitive conference, it will still likely have more top-25 teams than anyone else (though the Pac-12 will challenge that), but it's not like it's in the SEC charter that it automatically earns a playoff berth.
Mind you, I would pray for new commissioner Greg Sankey if that did happen in his first year on the job.
SI's Stewart MandelāContinue reading...
One of the perils of covering a college football season is that I unavoidably draw grand conclusions based on a very small and evolving sample size. Last November, I outdid myself in regrettable fashion, proclaiming the SEC West to be "the most dominant division ever," only to watch its teams go 2-5 in bowl season, 0-3 in New Year's Six games.
Lesson learned. I should really leave such delusional grandiose to the people who do it best -- rap moguls. It was a pretty bad swing and a miss on my part -- like trying to fling a kettlebell at someone.
Hence, I now approach questions like this one with newfound caution.
Hey Stewart. I like to judge the strength of a conference or division by the quality of the weakest teams. That said, the SEC West is absolutely loaded, with Vegas currently predicting Mississippi State and Texas A&M to finish near the bottom. Do you think this could be the year where all the SEC West teams finish the regular season with three-plus losses? If this were to happen, and if the West champion wins the SEC championship, would the SEC be shut out of the playoff?
-- Jeff Pretzel, Houston
Instead of the phrase "absolutely loaded," let's go with "unusually deep and competitive." That's why this year's SEC West is fascinating. I could see as many as five teams (all but Arkansas and Mississippi State) winning the division, and I could see all but two (Alabama and Auburn) finishing seventh. Which means some coach that makes $4 million a year, regularly recruits top-15 classes and whose fans genuinely believe right now they can win the division is in fact going to finish seventh.
The operative word here is "parity." In fact, the SEC West has become a lot like the NFL, where essentially three-fourths of the league could finish anywhere from 6-10 to 10-6, which itself can be the difference between one or two last-second plays going for or against you. Most of the SEC West teams are similarly bunched together talent-wise, and the difference between 10-2 and 7-5 will come down to who stays healthy, who doesn't fumble at the 1-yard line in the closing seconds, etc.
I could definitely see everyone finishing with at least two losses. It's happened before -- LSU in 2007 -- and it will happen again. But three losses across the board seems far-fetched. A three-loss team has not represented that division in Atlanta since Arkansas in 2002, and even then only because 10-2 Alabama was ineligible. The notion that not one team would manage to distinguish itself seems highly unlikely, especially given the disparity in crossover games.
But if -- if -- Jeff's scenario comes true and the SEC produces a three-loss champ, of course it's going to be left out of the playoff. The way last season turned out, a two-loss champ wouldn't have made it. It's time to move away from the BCS-era mindset that the SEC is untouchable. The past two postseasons have shown otherwise. It's still the most competitive conference, it will still likely have more top-25 teams than anyone else (though the Pac-12 will challenge that), but it's not like it's in the SEC charter that it automatically earns a playoff berth.
Mind you, I would pray for new commissioner Greg Sankey if that did happen in his first year on the job.
SI's Stewart MandelāContinue reading...
