šŸ“” Have injuries pushed Alabama to its tipping point?

Max

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TUSCALOOSA, Ala. -- A strange thing happened late Saturday night: For the first time since the opening week of the season, people actually paid attention to Alabama.

Like, they watched the game and everything.

The previous eight weeks had passed by in a blur of sleep-inducing dominance. Nick Saban’s squad was so much better than the competition that it only made sense to doze off or change the channel. Even a prime-time game against LSU in which Alabama didn’t play its best was overlooked because the Tide never trailed and wound up winning by two touchdowns.

But on Saturday, on the road against Mississippi State, that all changed. Alabama’s offense stumbled out of the gate, the defense struggled to contain QB Nick Fitzgerald and the Bulldogs' running game, and late into the fourth quarter, Mississippi State was actually winning. It took a brilliant performance from QB Jalen Hurts to pull Alabama back from the brink and leave Starkville undefeated.

Here’s the problem, though: Everyone saw what happened. Miami-Notre Dame got out of hand early, so Alabama took center stage -- warts and all. And suddenly there are concerning questions being asked about the Crimson Tide.

The issue at hand isn’t debatable. It’s injuries, plain and simple.

No one wants to hear about injuries because every team deals with them, but even the most ardent of SEC haters would have to look at what Alabama has dealt with this season and understand that this isn’t your typical case of wear and tear. The attrition at specific positions has put Saban’s defense in danger of reaching its breaking point.

If we’re being honest, Alabama's vulnerability is something we should have seen coming for a while now. Because in the midst of that blowout win over Florida State in the season opener, Alabama lost two of its best pass-rushers in outside linebackers Terrell Lewis and Christian Miller.

Overlooking that was a mistake that wouldn’t come full circle until Alabama's win over LSU on Nov. 4, when starting inside linebacker Shaun Dion Hamilton was lost for the season with a knee injury and reserve inside linebacker Mack Wilson was sidelined for an expected four to six weeks by a foot injury. On top of that, star defensive back Minkah Fitzpatrick pulled a hamstring.

All that attrition came to a head against Mississippi State. The lack of experience and depth at outside linebacker was exposed as the defense struggled to seal the edge when Fitzpatrick ran the read-option. Losing Hamilton, the signal-caller of the defense, no doubt played a part in the team's inability to get off the field on third down. And Fitzpatrick? He played, but you could tell that he wasn’t 100 percent.

Hootie Jones to play safety and Tony Brown to move to nickelback -- two solid role players suddenly asked to do much more.

An Alabama defense that had allowed just 66.4 rushing yards per game and two total touchdowns on the ground in its first eight games of the season has now yielded an average of 161.5 yards rushing over the past two games, in addition to four rushing touchdowns combined.

After beating Mississippi State, Saban lamented a "myriad of mistakes" that included players losing containment, not blitzing when they were supposed to and not covering well at times.

"So," he said, "lots of things to correct."

On Monday, he tried to piece it together.

"When you have changes," he said, "whether ... those changes are inevitable because of players missing or whatever, those are all things that have some impact on how you're able to play and what you're able to do. Whether it's how you communicate, the guys getting in the right things, doing the right things, not making mental errors, or having the confidence that every player out there is going to be able to do what he needs to do effectively."

And therein lies the rub for those who would brush off Alabama’s injuries and point to the never-ending crop of four- and five-star players riding the bench. Because while five-star inside linebacker Dylan Moses was a prodigy LSU recruited as early as the eighth grade, his talent can only overcome so much. He can’t outrun experience and he can’t suddenly be skilled in performing all the duties Hamilton was expected to take care of at inside linebacker.

As Saban explained, ā€œThe stability of the defense has to be created through confidence in the signal-caller making the right calls.ā€ Lose that, and you’re going to feel it.

Maybe Moses can develop into Alabama’s signal-caller, or maybe it’s veteran reserve Keith Holcombe who will step up.

Whatever the case, it’s not going to be Hamilton. It won't be Wilson, either. And Lewis and Miller aren’t coming back before a bowl game.

What’s more, offensive lineman Ross Pierschbacher, a three-year starter, is dealing with a high-ankle sprain that has him out this weekend against Mercer and threatens to sideline him against No. 6 Auburn the week after.

With Auburn surging and Alabama nursing a slew of injuries, the Iron Bowl has become a more compelling matchup, one that will serve as an elimination game for the College Football Playoff and decide who will face Georgia in the SEC championship game.

Even if Alabama survives, you have to wonder what kind of shape the team will be in coming out the other side.

The fully stocked, dominant Crimson Tide are gone. What we’ll see from here on out is a team held together by backups and bandages.
 
i honestly feel like there is blood in the water.....I do'nt want to be a Debbie downer but i agree 1000% with this article. Bama is struggling with the injuries and the Barn is peaking at just the right time. I watched the Barn / UGA game and sadly we are built similar to Georgia. I am worried "Carryon my wayward Johnson"(in my best Chris Burnman) is gonna gash us to pieces. If we cant get off the field on 3rd down the way we couldnt against Miss State.....this could be the worst Ironbowl in years :shock:
 
Bama matches up better against Auburn then it did against MSU.
Curious to know how. You can't possibly be referring to the skill positions. And if you're referring to the trenches, I think for this game, this year, I might take Auburn's D-front over ours, and the OLs seem to be on par.

Honestly I think this game is going to come down to exactly what the MSU game came down to: Hurts and our WRs making plays. That's the only area where I think we have the potential advantage.
 
We have the advantage at all skill positions on offense. OL is a draw.

Auburn has a better defensive line and, with injuries now better linebackers. Bama has a better secondary.

This is a game where Alabama’s offense has to win the game and the defense will need a few breaks. The running QB aspect of MSU’s game was the straw that broke the camels back Saturday night. The read option stalled our linebackers. Auburn has a much crappier version of a running QB attack. They also don’t have a receiving corps to challenge Bama as much. I feel better about the situation given that fact.

I think Bama outscores Auburn. Not by much but.... maybe a 33-24 kinda game
 
Curious to know how. You can't possibly be referring to the skill positions. And if you're referring to the trenches, I think for this game, this year, I might take Auburn's D-front over ours, and the OLs seem to be on par.

Honestly I think this game is going to come down to exactly what the MSU game came down to: Hurts and our WRs making plays. That's the only area where I think we have the potential advantage.

How??????? its QBs....thats how....duel threat QBs are what gives us trouble..
AU....bama shut down Guies at lsu........so...he is better then AU RB...
And Stdum is not more dangerous thenthe msu QB.....
See next weekend...
 
We have the advantage at all skill positions on offense.
I agree, in a sense. Like if you're comparing them to each other. But relative to the opposing defenses, given all our injuries, I can't say that. For example, if we had all our passing rushing OLBs for this game, I'd be much less worried since this Aub QB, while mobile, isn't elusive.

OL is a draw.
Agreed.

Auburn has a better defensive line and, with injuries now better linebackers.
Agreed.

Bama has a better secondary.
I'd agree if I knew if Fitzpatrick would be 100%.

This is a game where Alabama’s offense has to win the game and the defense will need a few breaks...
I think Bama outscores Auburn. Not by much but.... maybe a 33-24 kinda game
Agreed, if we win. Like I said earlier, I think it will come down to our passing game making plays since their D-front will sell out against our RBs and QB sneaks. If we win we will need to outscore them because I have to assume our D giving up some points.
 
i could see our secondary picking off stiddypoo a few times next saturday...
I expect to see the house brought on a few occasions. PBU's are good with me as well...but want to see him get hit a few times.

FWIW, when Bama has been undefeated going into their game with Auburn they've won 12 of 15. Those three losses were those "miracle year(s)" including one of Bama's season's.

I mentioned the matchup earlier...Nick Fitz is a totally different ball game than JS. Just the change alone frees up a linebacker.
 
Auburn is a team that thrives or pouts on all emotion. The JoJo game played out perfectly for them with the long ball and explosive plays early. This same Auburn team has also played like total crap this year. If you look at their games, they come up with 10, 14, 21 point quarters - it's all explosive plays or turnovers. Even against LSU, they scored 17 in the first quarter. It's all emotion.

Having said that, our injuries are for real, though I wouldn't be surprised to see Miller in the Iron Bowl. And their D-Line is for real. We better get Damien and Bo - and Jalen - going early to open up the passing game. Their O-Line is banged up quite a bit. JoJo should have been able to handle them more but just got behind and then seemed to lose their will.

Nonetheless, Stidham is no Fitzgerald thankfully, but he will be slinging the long ball looking for those big plays on busted coverages or pass interference. We have to keep our cool during the insane 1st and 2nd quarter barrage and just answer with points. It's very simple... Our offense probably needs to score more than 30 if we're going to win.
 
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