🏀 📈 Bracketology 2026 - 3/1 Update: Bama move up the rankings to the four line

As mentioned, last season there was a total of 186 brackets we kept track of from Jan through March Madness. As of today, there are 48 brackets published. In those, the worst seeding for the Tide is at #5, the best is as a #2 seed.

Bracket Matrix	NCAA NET Rankings
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[Bammerboy321]

What am I missing? Why would we want to be at the bottom of the bracket or shy away from Florida? Maybe they are great but if you are going to take the next steps Bama has to up their game. I think Bediako will eventually turn out to be a difference maker. I certainly hope so.

While I agree, March Madness is all about which team can get hot and matchups. Alabama - even with Bediako - is likely not going to take the next step this year. Oats is going to have to do better in the portal next offseason. Especially if he wants the defense to perform better to go with an elite offense.

Florida is a bad matchup for Alabama. Golden has displayed that in four straight games. They are bigger and more physical inside, and Golden is one of the best at capitalizing on matchups. Would honestly rather be in Vandy's bracket. Alabama was very much in that game until Philon went out.

 

[Justneedme81]

I want no part of Florida. I'd gladly sit at the bottom of this projected bracket.

Me too

 

[TerryP]

Top of the page if you want a closer look.

 

[TerryP]

Bama's dropped one in both the NET and average projections.

 

[TerryP]

Last week Bama 19th overall, five seed. They are still considered a five seed at Bracket Matrix, but have moved up to 17th overall. They've moved up two in the NET rankings as well.

(See who is sitting at 20th on BM?)

102 bracket published: 28 have the Tide as a 4 seed. 12 brackets have Bama as a six seed.

 

[RTB X Bot]

 

[Brandon Van de Graaff]

Feels like this is the most stacked season in terms of top teams that could legitimately win the whole thing than we've seen in quite some time. At, least, it feels that way to me. And it has felt like that since the start of the season. Usually, the real contenders will break off into a smaller group by February, but I don't think that has happened much. IMO, it's setting up for some really, really good games in the NCAAT on the 2nd weekend and beyond. And whoever is the last team standing will have earned every bit of it.

 

[TerryP]

Feels like this is the most stacked season in terms of top teams that could legitimately win the whole thing than we've seen in quite some time.

Over the last five years every team that made the FF came from the top right quad. I saved this image to see if it ends up being six.

 

[Brandon Van de Graaff]

Over the last five years every team that made the FF came from the top right quad. I saved this image to see if it ends up being six.

View attachment 34236

And since 2004, the last 21 national champions and 35 of the past 36 were each ranked in the top 12 in their respective season's Week 6 AP poll. This year's teams...

 

[Brandon Van de Graaff]

I may have missed 1 or more, but these are the 8 teams I saw that fit into both... No SEC flavor.

Duke, Arizona, Louisville, Michigan State, Houston, BYU, Purdue, Iowa State, and Michigan.

 

[psychojoe]

There is no doubt we are overmatched versus Florida. As they are playing now, they rival n, Duke and are a bit better than Michigan and Houston. Where will we be seeded in the dance? If we win the last four reg season games we will be a two seed in the SEC tourney. If we win the tourney we should end up as a 2 in the dance.

Our trip to Knoxville this weekend is huge. If we lose we will be a 4 or 5 in the dance unless we win the SEC tourney.

Who besides me thinks the foul on KY at the end of their game with the barn was a really bad call?

It is my favorite time of the year.

 

[TerryP]

There is no doubt we are overmatched versus Florida. As they are playing now, they rival n, Duke and are a bit better than Michigan and Houston. Where will we be seeded in the dance? If we win the last four reg season games we will be a two seed in the SEC tourney. If we win the tourney we should end up as a 2 in the dance.

Our trip to Knoxville this weekend is huge. If we lose we will be a 4 or 5 in the dance unless we win the SEC tourney.

I was sort of chewing on this earlier and it's my belief, winning out, the best case scenario is a three seed. Superstitions make me want to see them land at a four: I suspect it'll be a 5-12 game we're watching.

@50+yeartidefan on the announcing note earlier...I believe TBS has the Final Four and Championship game. Grant Hill is the color guy on their man crew. Spero __ & _ Greenburg. I believe they rotated eight this year.

 

[TerryP]

364 D1 teams this season.

SEC teams' non-conference SOS as of this morning, via KenPom:

Alabama: No. 9
Auburn: No. 23
Florida: No. 33
Arkansas: No. 75
Vanderbilt: No. 127
Kentucky: No. 137
Mississippi State: No. 150
Tennessee: No. 182
Ole Miss: No. 230
LSU: No. 301
Texas: No. 313
Texas A&M: No. 322
Oklahoma: No. 324
Georgia: No. 330
Missouri: No. 346
South Carolina: No. 358

 

[TerryP]

 

[50+yeartidefan]

364 D1 teams this season.

SEC teams' non-conference SOS as of this morning, via KenPom:

Alabama: No. 9
Auburn: No. 23
Florida: No. 33
Arkansas: No. 75
Vanderbilt: No. 127
Kentucky: No. 137
Mississippi State: No. 150
Tennessee: No. 182
Ole Miss: No. 230
LSU: No. 301
Texas: No. 313
Texas A&M: No. 322
Oklahoma: No. 324
Georgia: No. 330
Missouri: No. 346
South Carolina: No. 358

USCe is really playing top opponents.
358/364.
Could add Missouri UGA n Ok close by

 

[TerryP]

USCe is really playing top opponents.
358/364.
Could add Missouri UGA n Ok close by

Right now that's the story. They are projected as an 11 seed which could easily mean play-in to dance.

 

[#80]

J. Lunardi just updated his brackets has Bama 4 seed.

Men's Bracketology: Duke's ascension to No. 1 overall was inevitable

It was only a matter of time until a path opened for the Blue Devils, who ride their win over Michigan to the top.

www.espn.com

 

[TerryP]

J. Lunardi just updated his brackets has Bama 4 seed.

And as a small reminder...

He was 124th out of 128 last season in accuracy.

 

[TerryP]

Over the last five years this guys' brackets have been top 15 for accuracy: 14th last season.
66 of 67 picked correctly with 65 +/- 1 of being seeded correctly: 54 seeded correctly.

 

[TerryP]

A four seed has a 15 percent chance of advancing out of the first round versus a five seeded team. Coincidentally, the same chance/percentage a four seed sees a lower seed than a five in the round of 32.