I agree that predicting the outcome is more difficult than ever, but I have to think that there is more reason to be optimistic than last year.
Reasons:
~Senior quarterback better positioned for success.
~OL another year better and better supported by quality relief.
~Depth at WR, although maybe not the dominating individuals as last year, we can now put 4-5 guys on the field who each can get the job done.
~A defense that you will not "out-athlete", meaning that a complete game will be needed to beat them.
~Another year under Saban has to show somewhere in mental toughness and "finishing".