Those pining for the good old days of the Bowl Championship Series could get a little nostalgia on this weekend, depending on how Conference USA’s West Division shakes out.
Entering the final weekend, Louisiana Tech, Southern Miss and UAB are all 5-2 in league play, and all three teams split their various head-to-heads: Louisiana Tech beat Southern Miss 45-30 on Oct. 19, Southern Miss spanked UAB 37-2 on Nov. 9, and UAB beat Louisiana Tech 20-14 last Saturday. Furthermore, all three clubs’ second losses came to teams from the East, meaning, with wins on Saturday, all three teams would finish 4-1 in divisional play.
So, as Saturday shakes out, here’s how each team can win the division.
For what it’s worth, here’s how the six computers rank the three teams.
Anderson & Hester
1. Louisiana Tech (73)
2. Southern Miss (75)
3. UAB (80)
Billingsley
1. UAB (37)
2. Louisiana Tech (41)
3. Southern Miss (51)
Colley Matrix
1. Louisiana Tech (62)
2. Southern Miss (64)
3. UAB (71)
Massey
1. Southern Miss (83)
2. Louisiana Tech (87)
3. UAB (93)
Sagarin
1. Southern Miss (87)
2. Louisiana Tech (94)
3. UAB (106)
Wolfe
1. Louisiana Tech (59)
2. Southern Miss (72)
3. UAB (74)
Average all six and you get:
1. Louisiana Tech (69.3)
2. Southern Miss (72)
3. UAB (76.8)
Apply the old BCS formula of throwing out each team’s highest and lowest ratings gets you:
1. Louisiana Tech (70.3)
2. Southern Miss (73.5)
3. UAB (79.5)
So, it’s clear the computers like Louisiana Tech at this juncture, but Southern Miss does have the toughest opponent waiting on Saturday in Florida Atlantic (average computer ranking: 44.7; the Owls need a win or a Marshall loss to win the East), so perhaps that will be enough for the Golden Eagles to jump the Bulldogs.
Twisting the knife for Southern Miss fans, CFT can report through a C-USA source that Conference USA began the week using an old Big Ten-style tiebreaker that awarded the divisional tie-breaker to the team that has gone the longest without reaching the conference championship game, but C-USA athletics directors adjusted to the BCS-style tiebreaker instead. Under the old tiebreaker, Southern Miss (2015) would have gone ahead of Louisiana Tech (2016) and UAB (2018).
Entering the final weekend, Louisiana Tech, Southern Miss and UAB are all 5-2 in league play, and all three teams split their various head-to-heads: Louisiana Tech beat Southern Miss 45-30 on Oct. 19, Southern Miss spanked UAB 37-2 on Nov. 9, and UAB beat Louisiana Tech 20-14 last Saturday. Furthermore, all three clubs’ second losses came to teams from the East, meaning, with wins on Saturday, all three teams would finish 4-1 in divisional play.
So, as Saturday shakes out, here’s how each team can win the division.
- Louisiana Tech: Win over UTSA and a UAB loss. If UAB wins, La Tech needs a USM win as well.
- Southern Miss: Win over Florida Atlantic and a Louisiana Tech loss. If La Tech wins, USM needs a UAB win as well.
- UAB: Win over North Texas and a Southern Miss loss. If USM wins, UAB needs a La Tech win as well.
For what it’s worth, here’s how the six computers rank the three teams.
Anderson & Hester
1. Louisiana Tech (73)
2. Southern Miss (75)
3. UAB (80)
Billingsley
1. UAB (37)
2. Louisiana Tech (41)
3. Southern Miss (51)
Colley Matrix
1. Louisiana Tech (62)
2. Southern Miss (64)
3. UAB (71)
Massey
1. Southern Miss (83)
2. Louisiana Tech (87)
3. UAB (93)
Sagarin
1. Southern Miss (87)
2. Louisiana Tech (94)
3. UAB (106)
Wolfe
1. Louisiana Tech (59)
2. Southern Miss (72)
3. UAB (74)
Average all six and you get:
1. Louisiana Tech (69.3)
2. Southern Miss (72)
3. UAB (76.8)
Apply the old BCS formula of throwing out each team’s highest and lowest ratings gets you:
1. Louisiana Tech (70.3)
2. Southern Miss (73.5)
3. UAB (79.5)
So, it’s clear the computers like Louisiana Tech at this juncture, but Southern Miss does have the toughest opponent waiting on Saturday in Florida Atlantic (average computer ranking: 44.7; the Owls need a win or a Marshall loss to win the East), so perhaps that will be enough for the Golden Eagles to jump the Bulldogs.
Twisting the knife for Southern Miss fans, CFT can report through a C-USA source that Conference USA began the week using an old Big Ten-style tiebreaker that awarded the divisional tie-breaker to the team that has gone the longest without reaching the conference championship game, but C-USA athletics directors adjusted to the BCS-style tiebreaker instead. Under the old tiebreaker, Southern Miss (2015) would have gone ahead of Louisiana Tech (2016) and UAB (2018).
BCS-era computers could decide Conference USA West champion
Louisiana Tech and Southern Miss are among three teams vying for the West Division championship in Conference USA.
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