washute said:
I think Gary Anderson and Kyle Whittingham are two of the top defensive schemers in the game and Utah will have some fresh looks for your offense on game day.
Intros aside, I think you are correct about a number of things in your posts above. As a Utah fan, this game scares me for two reasons. Utah has averaged more points per game than Alabama, but a lot of those points have come from defensive scoring (see Wyoming v. Utah). I do not think that Utah’s defense will get a lot of takeaways from your offense.
I think they will be able to plug the holes enough to stop the run, and cover your receivers and TE enough to keep Alabama from running away with the game, but I do not see them causing fumbles. If Utah does get some takeaways it will by interceptions. However, JPW (as mediocre as he is) does not make many mistakes and I do not foresee him throwing more than one INT (if any).
Utah’s offensive if a wild card in my mind. I think you are right that a lot will depend on whether they will be able to get 3-4 yards when they need to have it. Utah has not been able to consistently get those 3-4 yards on 3rd down throughout the game, but when it has been absolutely necessary to convert, they have converted (see Oregon State and TCU final drive).
One final point (for now) I think the biggest difference in this game is between our 2nds and your 2nds. Utah does not have the luxury to rest their 1sts throughout the game like Alabama. I expect Alabama to be able to make some hay with that disparity in the second half. I think for Utah to have a chance, they need to go up by two scores early. I do not think that it is unreasonable to believe that Utah can do that if their offense is precise. This is going to be a very tough game for Utah, but I believe that they will keep it close.
I don't see anything in that opinion I would consider to be outlandish. Some mirrors thoughts expressed nationally, other thoughts mirror ways teams can win playing against this years Tide team.
A few thoughts on what you've shared here.
"I think for Utah to have a chance, they need to go up by two scores early." &AND&
"I think Gary Anderson and Kyle Whittingham are two of the top defensive schemers in the game and Utah will have some fresh looks for your offense on game day."
Those two statements go hand in hand in my opinion. I don't discount either one.
4 teams have been able to get up on Alabama early. Two came as a result of special teams mistakes (turnovers) two came as a result of scoring drives one of which was a huge defensive breakdown leading to a 68 yard run resulting in a 3-0 lead. The one constant of the scoring drives was their offensive lines were able to challenge on the line of scrimmage versus our defense. Enough of a challenge to where the defense was momentarily "on their heels."
On the flip side, everyone of those scoring drives were answered. Answered on the following series.
So, when I see the mention of going up by two scores I don't have anything to refute the possibility of it happening other than, "no one has been able to do that this year." UF had all the capability of any team in the NCAA of doing such a thing. But couldn't.
Can Utah? Sure. But it'll be a first and therein I doubt it happens.
Defenses that have had success against our offense haven't done it with "scheme" when it comes to stopping our running attack. No one has, but those that contained it for a period of time did so with their ability to line up head to head and control the line of scrimmage.
A defensive coaches scheme has come into play when defending the Tide on passing downs. Stunts have had their success at times. But, it hasn't stopped the passing game from having success when its had to as well.
X's and O's versus someone and Joe's...whatever the expression is...nice cliche', some truth to it but it never has defined an entire game.
"However, JPW (as mediocre as he is) does not make many mistakes and I do not foresee him throwing more than one INT (if any)"
I would caution you there. If you look at statistics and rankings around the NCAA it would be easy to assume he's mediocre based on those numbers.
Yet, here's a situation where the numbers simply don't tell the story.
Take completion percentage where he's running just under 60%. I tracked that figure for the first half of the season until I was convinced he wasn't going to make the same mistakes he did last year. (stopped the UT game where he closed out that game 11 for 11, right at 75-80% completed passes) On average, in the first 6 games, you could attribute 4 incompletions to 3rd down conversions where our receivers were covered and he threw the ball away.
His yards aren't that high this year. They haven't had to be. His TD's aren't that high. Again, they haven't had to be.
When the game, as in a series, has been put in JP's hands he's played "lights out." Georgia, UT, Clemson, to name a few, are games where he's completed 75+ % of his passes. When the game was on the line, in overtime, versus LSU JP won that game. Hardly mediocre play in those situations.
I'm getting the feeling that it is going to be a goal of Utah to try to make JP beat you. I can't say I blame you for that; makes perfect sense. The problem is...unless you can pressure him each and every down by flat out blitz after blitz you won't be able to put this all on him. IF you do decide to attack him in just that way...where's the run defense?
One final point (for now) I think the biggest difference in this game is between our 2nds and your 2nds. Utah does not have the luxury to rest their 1sts throughout the game like Alabama.
I am in whole-hearted agreement with you on the depth issue. Just taking one position, and I'll use the NT position in this case, our #2 guy Josh Chapman is a very good player. When Cody was out, we saw very little drop-off in defensive production. BUT, the thing is, we've got a couple of more guys we can put in after those two...and we will.
I don't understand your comments about your defensive lineman filling the gaps. That's going to be a responsibility of your linebackers...
