📡 Alabama is a seven-point favorite to LSU, yet LSU is ranked ahead of it in the AP poll?

[RTB X Bot]

 

[im4uainva]

What!? Home field advantage? I'll gladly take a 1 point victory, although I am not too sure my nerves will stand the stress of the game. I used to live for that kind of excitement, now...I prefer games where Bama scores in their first possession, and never looks back. As far as rankings go...I'll take Number One after the Playoffs.

Roll Tide!

 

[JoseyWalesTheOutlaw]

Notre Dame was #1 vs The King #2 in 2012 yet Bama was around a 10 favorite with the books

 

[jdpas29]

With Tua's status uncertain and Alabama's relative defensive difficulties, LSU should be about a 7-10 point favorite. I'm not saying I think they will win yet, but I could see why they would.

The interesting part about this game to me will not be so much wondering about Alabama's offense dealing with QB issues and such, but rather watching LSU try to run the ball against Alabama. It has been the case for nearly the entire tenure of Coach Saban at Alabama that it was terribly difficult to run against Alabama. This year is a bit different. If LSU can run well, I think this game swing more in their favor... maybe 10-14 points. If they struggle to run and ask Burrow to throw the ball 42 times, BAma wins. I think the matchup of BAma's secondary with a pass heavy LSU offense works in BAma's favor. --- I look for LSU to become Screen University saturday. I hope the corners are ready.

 

[bamafan9201]

With Tua's status uncertain and Alabama's relative defensive difficulties, LSU should be about a 7-10 point favorite. I'm not saying I think they will win yet, but I could see why they would.

The interesting part about this game to me will not be so much wondering about Alabama's offense dealing with QB issues and such, but rather watching LSU try to run the ball against Alabama. It has been the case for nearly the entire tenure of Coach Saban at Alabama that it was terribly difficult to run against Alabama. This year is a bit different. If LSU can run well, I think this game swing more in their favor... maybe 10-14 points. If they struggle to run and ask Burrow to throw the ball 42 times, BAma wins. I think the matchup of BAma's secondary with a pass heavy LSU offense works in BAma's favor. --- I look for LSU to become Screen University saturday. I hope the corners are ready.

I’m guessing Vegas knows more than we do and they think the Tua injury is just smoke and mirrors at this point.

 

[50+yeartidefan]

Lsu jumped bama based on who they played and beat. 2 big wins at home ( but both Florida and AU certainly are flawed but good teams) One on the road now appears to be a very mediocre Texas team , overrated tremendously.
Bama at top based on brand and performance
Just how good is lsu? And now away from home?

 

[BamaFan334]

Let me buy that half point.

 

[TerryP]

With Tua's status uncertain and Alabama's relative defensive difficulties, LSU should be about a 7-10 point favorite. I'm not saying I think they will win yet, but I could see why they would.

I’m guessing Vegas knows more than we do and they think the Tua injury is just smoke and mirrors at this point.

I don't understand.

Why should LSU be favored in the game when the metrics used to gauge and set spreads all point to the same line we're seeing.

 

[TerryP]

Notre Dame was #1 vs The King #2 in 2012 yet Bama was around a 10 favorite with the books

That reminded me if this jewel.

 

[50+yeartidefan]

That reminded me if this jewel.

Also reminded me of a ND assistant coach comment while teams were warming up in pregame..... about Bama...."damn they're big"
Lol

 

[TerryP]

Also reminded me of a ND assistant coach comment while teams were warming up in pregame..... about Bama...."damn they're big"
Lol

I never read anything about that.

 

[jdpas29]

I don't understand.

Why should LSU be favored in the game when the metrics used to gauge and set spreads all point to the same line we're seeing.

Hanging 42 on floorda was no small task. Do you think Alabama's defense is playing at the level of the gators? Our secondary maybe... the front 7... definitely not. That is why I said that we match up better if they struggle to run the ball saturday.

 

[TerryP]

Hanging 42 on floorda was no small task. Do you think Alabama's defense is playing at the level of the gators? Our secondary maybe... the front 7... definitely not. That is why I said that we match up better if they struggle to run the ball saturday.

Firstly, I'm lost on seeing how this relates to "LSU should be favored."

Secondly, I'm lost on how you're seeing Florida's defense being better than Bama's. You mention the 42 scored against them and I see little difference in points allowed if we look at it purely from a numbers point of view. When we delve deeper into that number we see half of the points scored on Bama have come in the fourth quarter. Whereas, Florida has been scored on from the minute the game has started and it continued throughout.

They have 10 more sacks on the season; nine coming against FCS opponents. If we include Miami, 19 of the 29 in those three games. Hell, Lewis has more sacks this season than their starting line. They are not even in the same league when it comes to non-blitz pressure.

I'm open to being convinced here. How do you see this?

 

[50+yeartidefan]

Also reminded me of a ND assistant coach comment while teams were warming up in pregame..... about Bama...."damn they're big"
Lol

We obviously read and retain different stuff.....
But thats ok... maybe its true...maybe not.... but damn they were big....

 

[Tidestalker]

Remember - Vegas odds are more about public perception than reality. Same with the rankings, really...

 

[BamaFan334]

Firstly, I'm lost on seeing how this relates to "LSU should be favored."

Secondly, I'm lost on how you're seeing Florida's defense being better than Bama's. You mention the 42 scored against them and I see little difference in points allowed if we look at it purely from a numbers point of view. When we delve deeper into that number we see half of the points scored on Bama have come in the fourth quarter. Whereas, Florida has been scored on from the minute the game has started and it continued throughout.

They have 10 more sacks on the season; nine coming against FCS opponents. If we include Miami, 19 of the 29 in those three games. Hell, Lewis has more sacks this season than their starting line. They are not even in the same league when it comes to non-blitz pressure.

I'm open to being convinced here. How do you see this?

I'm sorry, but I just get the feel when I watch Florida they are tougher than we are as a defense. It may be slanted or flawed for whatever reason, but I don't worry as much when I watch Florida as I do our defense. I hold my breathe on just about every play with us. Maybe that's because I care for our team and don't for theirs, but Florida in my mind has a saltier defense when you look at their front seven. I have said LSU does as well in my mind. I looked at the stats and we do edge Florida on defense, but I also feel they have played a tougher schedule than us as well with Georgia, Auburn, LSU, and Miami (they suck, but have high end athletes).

 

[planomateo]

Vanderbilt hung 38 points on LSU, only 7 of those were in the 4th quarter before anyone says garbage time.

 

[planomateo]

also feel they have played a tougher schedule than us as well with Georgia, Auburn, LSU, and Miami

2 of those were home games, Georgia a neutral game, and @ LSU.

 

[jdpas29]

Florida has faced tougher competition than bAma has up to this point and has had a couple of losses. They were competitive in both with the offense essentially failing to produce consistently costing them the game. LSU's late run to win the game was the only time the florida defense looked overwhelmed all season. We gave up nearly 30 points to tamu and ole miss, had trouble stopping the run against Soco, QB at ole siss, tenn with soco and ole siss putting up in the neighborhood of 400 yards of offense against us. On the bright side, Bama's defense has made progress during the season and may be getting to a new level since the tenn game. just watching them play it does appear that there is better cohesion.

 

[NickelDoubleDog]

Florida has faced tougher competition than bAma has up to this point and has had a couple of losses. They were competitive in both with the offense essentially failing to produce consistently costing them the game. LSU's late run to win the game was the only time the florida defense looked overwhelmed all season. We gave up nearly 30 points to tamu and ole miss, had trouble stopping the run against Soco, QB at ole siss, tenn with soco and ole siss putting up in the neighborhood of 400 yards of offense against us. On the bright side, Bama's defense has made progress during the season and may be getting to a new level since the tenn game. just watching them play it does appear that there is better cohesion.

All those point totals and yards you reference vs. SCar, OM, and A&M were primarily done after Alabama had 21 point or larger leads. Hell, 2/3 of OM points were once the score hit 45-17.