| FTBL Realistic expectations

[RollTideinGA]

A phrase that doesnt fit Bama fans vocabulary. But honestly what are the realistic expectations for this year? Alabama was slammed with the hardest penalties ever to a major Div 1A school outside of SMU’s death penalty. 5 years probation, 2 year bowl ban, loss of 21 scholarships, and damage to the reputation. I know it’s a sore spot for many. And a lot of people are of the opinion its over, no more excuses.

From 2002-2007 Alabama played under a dark cloud and playing short of quality players. And what has made it worse is the revolving coach door. Sure the probation is over, and in Feb 2007 it officially ended. Do coaching changes push the schedule back?

Look at it this way, each coach recruits for their offense. Fran stocked up on players for an option style offense. Price…never mind :roll: , Shula recruited for more of a pro style offense. And now we have Saban who is recruiting athletes and defensive players, with his second offensive coordinator in two years. His recruiting class this year will be the first of many.

In the years since the probation the Tide has pulled a 43-33 record and went 2-2 in bowl games. They beat the Vols 3 times, but have been 0-for against LSU and Auburn. Sure there have been special moments upsetting Florida in 2005, and hanging tough with Oklahoma. But I have seen things I thought I would never see like loosing to Northern Illinois and La-Monroe in Tuscaloosa. Not to mention the whole Miss State thing. Ughhh!

After 6-7 and 7-6 seasons knowing that we are not deep at O-Line, D-Line, and LB my expectations are not high for 2008. We may not have the best talent at all positions, but we do have some great players that give me hope. The team is also very young also (60 Fr, 26 So, 31 Jr, & 18 Sr) when looking at the Spring roster and adding the '08 class. I know we are spoiled by our past and 10-win seasons in 2002 and 2005 during the probation. What do you think the Tide will do, and how realistic is it to just say Probation is over? I don’t think we are fully clear of the damage that was done.

 

[Birmingham]

Do I believe we are back? Yes
Do I believe that us being 'back' means we will go 13 - 0 and have a NC? No
Do I believe we are on a 90 mph speedway to a NC? Yes

Being 'back' doesn't mean that other programs (Georgia, Florida, LSU...) can't hang with your high powered program. I think everybody is aware of the coaching situation in the SEC, and know that there are programs that are more than 'back', they've arrived.



In short I'll say...

YES - we're back
NO - we haven't arrived.

 

[ghice]

I can't believe I'm going to agree with Finebaum, but I'd say 8-4 this year with a win against the barn, breaking the streak. Next year I'd look for 9~10 win season, and by 2010 we should be completely have probation out of the system (Especially they way CNS recruits).

It will be kind of funny hearing the barn talk about the past and their "Golden Years" :lol:

Yet we live in the past :roll:

 

[Wiseace615]

I wouldn't say that we are completely clear of the damage that was done. However, I personally belive that we are progressing steadily in the right direction.

I know a lot has been said about the recruiting class, and I also know that highly ranked recruits don't mean a thing if they can't perform at the next level. Still, I think think the recruiting class shows the interest level in the program, as well as the belief of the younger kids that Alabama is headed in the right direction.

I believe that the change in offensive coordinator is definitely a move in the positive direction. I was and still am a fan of Major Applwhite, and I hope that he does well in his career. There is just a confidence you can see in McElwain's mannerism and the way that he carries himself that Applewhite does not have yet. I know the spring game is not going to show you much, but what I took away from the offense in the spring game I liked. He seems to be developing an offense that utilizes the talent he has in the best possible way. I've seen several comments on the amount of passing we did during the A-Day game when compared to the amount of rushes. But, Terry Grant's touchdown counted as a 75 yard pass, when in reality it was caught maybe five yards from the line of scrimmage. Look at the way the New England Patriots played this past season. Their key runners were hurt, so they used their short passing game to get the ball into the hands of their talented players and that made up for the lack of a running game. I think that the focus on offense this year will be to have a balanced attack not in terms of runs vs. passes, but in terms of spreading the ball around and utilizing the most talented player.

I know that I've gone a little long and perhaps gotten off topic in my response, so I'll try to wrap up. Realistically, I don't see us winning over 8 games this season, possibly nine. Still, in my mind that would be an excellent season, and an improvement over last year. Of course, I would still be happy if we only win seven if you can still see the progress being made relative to the mentality of the players. That is the greatest step forward that I saw this spring. The fact that the players who were on the team during spring practice seem to be invested in the program and willing to take responsibility for themselves and their team mates. That is something that I personally have not seen in T-Town in some time. JMHO

-Clayton

 

[ericd]

I'm not getting my hopes up too much. I think 8 or 9 wins would be about right.

**Crosses fingers**

 

[Guest]

I agree with most of what you say, however I think that the OL and DL are going to shock some people. They are bigger, stronger, and faster. This year will be the kind of difference we saw between 2000 and 2002. In 2000 we had a deep and experienced OL that stank...in 2001 we had a young and inexperienced OL that was actually better than 2000. In 2002 we had an incredible OL that exceeded what everyone thought possible. I think the 2006 --> 2008 OL is a similar progression. We are going to dominate in the trenches.

The DL will be much improved. Probably not AS much as the OL in terms of productivity, but the DL last season was terrible. This year they will be deeper, stronger, and faster - probably moreso than the OL...but the productivity may not be as measurable because they were SO bad in 2007.

As much as I like Kines, if he had been our DC last season we would have been in trouble. We schemed our way out of a terrible talent void on defense.

A phrase that doesnt fit Bama fans vocabulary. But honestly what are the realistic expectations for this year? Alabama was slammed with the hardest penalties ever to a major Div 1A school outside of SMU’s death penalty. 5 years probation, 2 year bowl ban, loss of 21 scholarships, and damage to the reputation. I know it’s a sore spot for many. And a lot of people are of the opinion its over, no more excuses.

From 2002-2007 Alabama played under a dark cloud and playing short of quality players. And what has made it worse is the revolving coach door. Sure the probation is over, and in Feb 2007 it officially ended. Do coaching changes push the schedule back?

Look at it this way, each coach recruits for their offense. Fran stocked up on players for an option style offense. Price…never mind :roll: , Shula recruited for more of a pro style offense. And now we have Saban who is recruiting athletes and defensive players, with his second offensive coordinator in two years. His recruiting class this year will be the first of many.

In the years since the probation the Tide has pulled a 43-33 record and went 2-2 in bowl games. They beat the Vols 3 times, but have been 0-for against LSU and Auburn. Sure there have been special moments upsetting Florida in 2005, and hanging tough with Oklahoma. But I have seen things I thought I would never see like loosing to Northern Illinois and La-Monroe in Tuscaloosa. Not to mention the whole Miss State thing. Ughhh!

After 6-7 and 7-6 seasons knowing that we are not deep at O-Line, D-Line, and LB my expectations are not high for 2008. We may not have the best talent at all positions, but we do have some great players that give me hope. The team is also very young also (60 Fr, 26 So, 31 Jr, & 18 Sr) when looking at the Spring roster and adding the '08 class. I know we are spoiled by our past and 10-win seasons in 2002 and 2005 during the probation. What do you think the Tide will do, and how realistic is it to just say Probation is over? I don’t think we are fully clear of the damage that was done.

 

[firestorm]

I agree with all the things written here as well. However, I've begun to see some leadership and character in specific areas, and it's evident the incoming talent which arrives this summer. What I think IMHO is next season we could make the foundation to be under a clear turning point. We've got a younger roster but I think the west division will be close at the top of the competition (LSU and Auburn), and 'Bama could be in contention all the year, and that's something that will build the mentality aspect of our team for years to come.

RTR,

 

[It Takes Eleven]

Although improved, right OT still concerns me. JPW was giving up alot of ground, sometimes quickly, at A-Day.

RTR,

Tim

 

[jocephus8179]

I can't believe I'm going to agree with Finebaum, but I'd say 8-4 this year with a win against the barn, breaking the streak. Next year I'd look for 9~10 win season, and by 2010 we should be completely have probation out of the system (Especially they way CNS recruits).

It will be kind of funny hearing the barn talk about the past and their "Golden Years" :lol:

Yet we live in the past :roll:

That's what ticks me off. Have yall heard all these Barn fans calling on jox? They have always accused us of living in the past. But for once, we can look to the future. And who's always living in the past now, especially the past 6 years? Yep, the people that always liked to put us down for living in our past. Every barn fan I hear call into jox or talks trash to me in person always has to say, We've owned yall 6 years in a row. So freakin what. When they can own us 9 years in a row, then they can talk some trash. Until then and until they win at least one WHOLE NC, and win over 20 SEC Championships, and have over 50 Bowl appearences and win over 30 of them, then we can talk some trash that's worth talking. When someone like a barn fan tells me that we just live in the past, I tell them, at least we have a past that's worth living in and being very, very proud of. Anyway. They're the one's obviously living in the past now. What's so great about praising 6 years?

 

[Guest]

8-4 to me seems realistic, anything better than that is pure gravy. It would be nice to end at least one of the "streaks" against us.

 

[JoshB]

yea i think we're def. back. this year i look for a 9-3 season with a cpl big wins and we'll at least contend for the west.

but in the next year or two ('09-'10) its gonna be special.

 

[JoshB]

I agree with most of what you say, however I think that the OL and DL are going to shock some people. They are bigger, stronger, and faster. This year will be the kind of difference we saw between 2000 and 2002. In 2000 we had a deep and experienced OL that stank...in 2001 we had a young and inexperienced OL that was actually better than 2000. In 2002 we had an incredible OL that exceeded what everyone thought possible. I think the 2006 --> 2008 OL is a similar progression. We are going to dominate in the trenches.

The DL will be much improved. Probably not AS much as the OL in terms of productivity, but the DL last season was terrible. This year they will be deeper, stronger, and faster - probably moreso than the OL...but the productivity may not be as measurable because they were SO bad in 2007.

As much as I like Kines, if he had been our DC last season we would have been in trouble. We schemed our way out of a terrible talent void on defense.

i will agree with u on ur points that our OL and DL will be much better, but i wont go as far as to say that our DL was horrible last year. just didnt have much depth. anyway, if Cody can come in play immediately (which i think he will, junior college transfer coming in much like Cornelius Griffin did back in the day) then that middle is going to be anchored quite nicely. on the ends, Bobby Greenwood is the vet and should be better this year and i feel that Luther Davis is gonna eventually become the other DE. with Chapman, Motley, Washington, etc. we actually have depth now, not as much as we would like but there is some there now.

 

[Guest]

There were at least 5 or 6 teams in the SEC that none of our defensive linemen would have started for. Several teams 2 deep are better than our starting front. While I don't like calling any of our players "terrible," when you are slower, smaller, and weaker than everyone else, the shoe fits.

I agree with most of what you say, however I think that the OL and DL are going to shock some people. They are bigger, stronger, and faster. This year will be the kind of difference we saw between 2000 and 2002. In 2000 we had a deep and experienced OL that stank...in 2001 we had a young and inexperienced OL that was actually better than 2000. In 2002 we had an incredible OL that exceeded what everyone thought possible. I think the 2006 --> 2008 OL is a similar progression. We are going to dominate in the trenches.

The DL will be much improved. Probably not AS much as the OL in terms of productivity, but the DL last season was terrible. This year they will be deeper, stronger, and faster - probably moreso than the OL...but the productivity may not be as measurable because they were SO bad in 2007.

As much as I like Kines, if he had been our DC last season we would have been in trouble. We schemed our way out of a terrible talent void on defense.

i will agree with u on your points that our OL and DL will be much better, but i wont go as far as to say that our DL was horrible last year. just didnt have much depth. anyway, if Cody can come in play immediately (which i think he will, junior college transfer coming in much like Cornelius Griffin did back in the day) then that middle is going to be anchored quite nicely. on the ends, Bobby Greenwood is the vet and should be better this year and i feel that Luther Davis is gonna eventually become the other DE. with Chapman, Motley, Washington, etc. we actually have depth now, not as much as we would like but there is some there now.

 

[Guest]

The SEC is so tough because top-to-bottom everyone is so close. How many games were decided by a field goal or less, or came down to the last drive? Bama is close, but we are not alone.

This is where CNS can make the difference. The "4th Quarter Program"; not just emphasizing it but TEACHING Mental and Physical toughness; "Finishing"; and truly gifted young athletes blend with our vets: these are what I think will earn us some breaks this year that we did not get last year. This is worth one game in my opinion. (+1)

That said, our schedule is tougher this year and I'm I am worried that we may still not be mature enough to overcome the gut-checks on the road like mature teams do. The more difficult schedule will cost us one game. (-1)

We will not have a shocking loss to a team we should beat this year because a second year Saban team is too good to let that happen. (+1)

This is a net gain of 1. We should have 8 wins this season including one over Auburn. But if the ball bounces our way, another win in easily within reach.

 

[Guest]

That said, our schedule is tougher this year and I'm I am worried that we may still not be mature enough to overcome the gut-checks on the road like mature teams do. The more difficult schedule will cost us one game. (-1)

This is negative for this year, but a positive for the future. It will make them even stronger mentally. This will be a good learning experience either way.

 

[bamatommy]

The SEC is so tough because top-to-bottom everyone is so close. How many games were decided by a field goal or less, or came down to the last drive? Bama is close, but we are not alone.

This is where CNS can make the difference. The "4th Quarter Program"; not just emphasizing it but TEACHING Mental and Physical toughness; "Finishing"; and truly gifted young athletes blend with our vets: these are what I think will earn us some breaks this year that we did not get last year. This is worth one game in my opinion. (+1)

That said, our schedule is tougher this year and I'm I am worried that we may still not be mature enough to overcome the gut-checks on the road like mature teams do. The more difficult schedule will cost us one game. (-1)

We will not have a shocking loss to a team we should beat this year because a second year Saban team is too good to let that happen. (+1)

This is a net gain of 1. We should have 8 wins this season including one over Auburn. But if the ball bounces our way, another win in easily within reach.

Interesting analysis. I never thought of it that way, but it makes a lot of sense.