In some ways this is the same song but a different verse. The way I feel about this game is the way I normally feel about Arkansas. This year I knew Arkie would be a blowout - even called the score...but this game scares me.
I made my 38-17 prediction based upon match-ups and position break downs, up against numbers with the competition played - and the competition they played...for example, when I look at rushing yardage and passing yards given up by Ole Miss, I look at who they played and then look at how those teams did against their other opponents. Then I look at overall defensive stats of those opponents and compare to the productivity that Ole Miss had. In the end, I find Alabama to be 3 TD's better than Ole Miss, but if we play poorly that could change. By the same token, if Ole Miss plays poorly, we could lay 50 on them.
I think we will shut down their running game with relative ease. The passing game concerns me, but I think our nickel will be effective at controlling the short passing game. I don't think that they can throw it deep on us with consistency, but I do think they will burn us once...I just hope it is late and not early. I think Nutt will try a deep ball very early and our safeties had better maintain position. The game could go south if we get burned early.
Assuming that we do not get burned early and we play like we should, I think we win comfortably. We will run with relative ease, and when they stack the box Wilson will eat them alive. The spread has trouble running against speed and Florida was not able to run against them consistently. The same for the misdirection of Wake...and turnovers kept the rebels in the UF game. Both of those teams were able to move the ball effectively through the air, but the power running was not there to get the money.
The bottom line is, we will force Ole Miss to throw. How we contain their passing game will determine the outcome.
A sobering stat for Ole Miss fans - they have not controlled time of possession in any game this year - including Samford. Alabama will own the ball. Mississippi has a fast defense, but nobody has run the ball straight at them. We will, and we will do it successfully. The closest thing to a power running game they have faced was Memphis - who had 188 yards on the ground. That does not bode well for the Rebels.
Their safeties are their #1 and #2 tacklers on the team. Both of them are undersized. In the open field I would put my money on Ingram and Coffee.
Across the board, their secondary is undersized. Alexander, Jones, and Walker are 6" to 7" taller than any Ole Miss corner or safety who will see the field Saturday, and 20-40 pounds heavier. That is a physical mismatch if there ever was one.
We will score on their defense, and control the ball. We just have to control the big plays and not make mental errors...if we do those things, we can embarrass them.
