| FTBL Petrino: By the numbers: It is deceiving until....

[TerryP]

you really start looking at the success he had at Louisville in his four years coaching there.

I know, the first thing people point out is his over all record. To start, let's take that into account.

From 2003-2006 Petrino's record was:

9-4
11-1
9-3
12-1

41-9 looks good on anyone's record, no doubt. But, when you start looking deeper into the story the numbers at face value simply don't tell the story.

In his four years, when you look at the competition Louisville face you'll find that their combined records were sub .500. Not by much, but never-the-less a combined record of 298-308.

His first season was in 2003 where he lead the Cardinals to a 9-4 season. Out of those 13 teams, 8 of them had records of .500 or less. 5 of the teams had .500+ records with Louisville losing 4 of those games. Their win coming against a 7-6 Houston team.

In 2004 the team finished with an 11-1 record. Out of those 12 games, 8 teams had records of .500 or less. 4 wins against teams .500+ including a 9-3 Miami team, an 8-4 Memphis team, a 7-5 Cincy team and their biggest win versus an 11-1 Boise State team.

2005 follows the same tone as 2004 except they had a record of 9-4. Out of those 12 teams, 9 teams had records of .500 or less with the remaining 3 over .500. Their win was against a 7-5 Rutgers team and two losses to a 11-2 Va Tech and 11-1 West Virginia squad.

2006, his best season. Louisville finished that year at 12-1 with 3 of their opponents winning 10 games or more. The lost to a 11-2 Rutgers team with 2 wins against Wake Forest (11-3) and West Virginia (11-2)

4 of their opponents won less than half of their games and the remaining six featured 2 teams with 8-5 records, 1 team with a 6-6 record and 3 teams with 7-6 records.

So, why did I bother going through all of this? To point out the number of "quality wins" he led the team to during his Louisville tenure.

West Virginia and Wake in 2006 make 2.

Beating the Boise State team, 11-1, in 2004 makes 3.

3.

This is just one of the reason I look at Petrino and the game this weekend with little concern.

One could surmise that you could look at Petrino overall and have little concern considering "This isn't the Big East."

 

[BAMAFSTBACK]

I can agree with this.

 

[Guest]

Not me, just can't do it. :wink:

I tell ya' every year I get more nervous about Alabama football. I don't know what it is. I never really enjoy a game and settle in until we're up by 17-21.

Arkansas always gives us fits. I'd say it was a Houston Nutt thing but the same thing happened with Danny Ford (i.e. "the trap"). Everyone says this is a struggling team with a new coach/system. Not buying it til I see it.

 

[Perdido Tide]

Im not sure you can dput a lot of emphasis on those records since he didnt lose many big games. Obviously they didnt play many but it is hard to discredit him as a coach by saying he only beat weaker teams when he didnt play many big time teams. Who knows, maybe he would have lost all of them.

Truth is, if anything he is still sort of an unknown, not less of a coach because of those numbers.

 

[NTT]

Not me, just can't do it. :wink:

I tell ya' every year I get more nervous about Alabama football. I don't know what it is. I never really enjoy a game and settle in until we're up by 17-21.

Arkansas always gives us fits. I'd say it was a Houston Nutt thing but the same thing happened with Danny Ford (i.e. "the trap"). Everyone says this is a struggling team with a new coach/system. Not buying it til I see it.

I was like that last year and vs. Clemson this year. These last 2 games once we were up by 2 scores i felt it was in the bag.

 

[Guest]

It is not Petrino that concerns me. It is Arkansas itself. When the old SWC broke up and Arky joined the SEC, they declared us as one of their big rivals. They will come at us hammer and tong, and there are still a good many Nutt recruits who understand what it means to leave it all on the field. That being said, I don't care what offense Casey Dick is running, he does not scare me, especially a wide open passing game such as what Petrino favors. I think that the Hogs will play very hard, but I predict that we'll win by two touchdowns.

 

[AFF]

Not me, just can't do it. :wink:

I tell ya' every year I get more nervous about Alabama football. I don't know what it is. I never really enjoy a game and settle in until we're up by 17-21.

Arkansas always gives us fits. I'd say it was a Houston Nutt thing but the same thing happened with Danny Ford (i.e. "the trap"). Everyone says this is a struggling team with a new coach/system. Not buying it til I see it.

I hear ya Delta. I'd relax a little, though. Even Lou Holtz said Arkansas would be horrible this year. So far, they don't look like they will be able to compete after their first two showings.

DATE OPPONENT W-L (CONF) RESULT
8/30 Western Illinois 1-0 (0-0) W 28-24
9/06 @ Louisiana-Monroe 2-0 (0-0) W 28-27

I know we can't take anyone lightly. But, if there's an SEC game we can be mediocre in and still win - this is the one. Last year, if McFadden had a big game Arkansas could be dangerous. This year....I don't think so.

I'm now spreading monkey dust into the air to remove any jinx I may have created with this post......

sprinkly monkey dust: phfffft *._*.-.^*.\.*-._* phffft! - booyah!

Done.