| FTBL Now v/s Then

[Guest]

First let me preempt the strike that I know is coming...this post is NOT a bash on Shula moment. This is is a basic statistical comparison of this year's team versus last year's team for the purpose of quantifying improvement from one season to the next. The reason for the improvement is irrelevant for this purpose, however you can make of it what you will.

The comparison is the entirety of 2006 (13 game season) versus this year through 8 games, with the average needed to equal, and projected based on ytd numbers and a 13 game season.

Offensive Stats
Rushing
LY 1600
YTD 1360

Average needed to equal: 48ypg
Projected: 2210
Increase of 610 yards or 38%

Passing
LY 2767
TY 1949

Average needed to equal: 163.6ypg
Projected: 3167
Increase of 400 yards or 14%

Touchdowns
LY 34
TY 29

Average needed to equal: Less than 1 per game
Projected: 47
Increase of 13 or 38%

Field Goals
LY 21/30
TY 15/22

Total Points
LY 298
TY 252

Average needed to equal: 9.2
Projected 409 *Bama has not scored over 400 points in one season since 1973*
Increase of 157 or 53%

Team Stat
Points allowed
LY 250
TY 166

Average to equal: 16.8ppg
Projected: 269
increase of 1.5ppg

Defensive Stats
Rushing yards allowed
LY 1620
TY 1051

Average to Equal: 113.8
Projected: 1707
Increase of 6.7ypg

Passing yards allowed
LY 2250
TY 1789

Average to equal: 92.2
Projected: 2907
Increase of ~ 50ypg

It is interesting that while we have slid some on defense (and given our documented lack of depth and losses to graduation it was expected), we have taken a huge leap forward on offense in such a short time.

One area that has shown a huge improvement is red zone scoring. We had a few problems early in the season, but it has been fixed. We did not keep red zone stats last year but it would have made for an interesting comparison. This season we are at 86% in the red zone, with 62% being touchdowns. Last season it seemed like there was an invisible wall in front of the end zone.

Even though our defensive stats have slid, we have already recorded more sacks (14) than we had in all of 2006 (13).

Last season we had better time of possession by about 2 minutes, but this year we are averaging 77.5 plays per game, compared to 65 last year. That says that we were doing a whole lot of clock milking. The same tool that kept us in games where we were out manned also served to keep Duke, FIU, and La.Mo in games where we should have put them away early. Fewer plays equated to fewer opportunities for explosives and neutralized our depth advantage against lower level programs since they had more time to rest between plays.

I wonder what our defense would have been like in 2005 if Saban & Steele would have been our coaches? That defense was loaded with talent and saved our backsides. In the modern era, a team that only scores 263 points in 12 games is normally a team with a losing record. Offenses are too high powered today for that kind of output to win games, but we won 10 in 2005 with an offense that scored less than 20 points on 6 occasions.

Again, don't blast me with the "don't bash Shula" comments. Shula's record speaks for itself and Howdy-Doodie could have been our coach for all I care, I am comparing teams. If you want to make it about coaching staffs, that is fine, but it is not my purpose. We are paying Saban $32M over 8 years and have every right to look objectively at this year verses previous years to quantify improvement.

Thinking about it, I am going to go off on Shula for a moment...not so much him as those who take every opportunity to defend him. It irks me that any reference to previous seasons has to be prefaced by "I am not bashing Shula" lest the author be flamed.

To be honest, I don't get the Shula apologists. I appreciate what he did as a player (I idolized him back then), but if he had not taken the job in 2003 we would have hired someone else and they would likely have done just as good - or better. Sly is shutting some folks up now. He is one win away from having MSU bowl eligible without thugs or a team full of paid hit-men out of Juco.

I wonder where the Shula defenders were when there were players calling him "Sheila" to his face, and eating "ice cream cones" was the view of discipline. Spreading a three player suspension over 3 games because you did not have the confidence in your 2nd teamers is lame. Even lamer is firing the best S&C coach in America because he disagrees with you on making the S&C program optional (and star treatment - Pollard would have had Brodie up to 225# by his senior year, and he would not have been as injury prone). Lamer still is letting your dad blast the program that gave you an opportunity to prove yourself as a head football coach, because you failed and got fired after being insubordinate to your boss.

Sure, Mike is a nice guy, but he made his own bed and does not need the "Shula Police" on internet message boards.

Thats all I have to say about that.

 

[reger60]

Wow. For a post that's not about Shula, you sure do spend a lot of time talking about Shula. :roll:

Did you ever come to a conclusion? I couldn't locate one.

 

[BAMAFSTBACK]

word

 

[Guest]

Wow. For a post that's not about Shula, you sure do spend a lot of time talking about Shula. :roll:

Did you ever come to a conclusion? I couldn't locate one.

I didn't mention Shula until I realized that I was having to apologize for bringing up the fact that we had a football team last year. The point of the post is a comparison of this year and last year. It was the idea of apologizing for it that got my dander up, and the last part is directed at anyone who feels compelled to defend Shula; chances are they have no clue what was actually going on while he was here, or the reality of why he got fired.

 

[reger60]

The point of the post is a comparison of this year and last year.

Okay. I figured out on my own that you were comparing this season to last season. What I asked you for was a "conclusion." What is the point of comparing this year statistics with last year's statistics? Surely, you didn't do all of your research simply to prove that you were capable of doing research?

 

[Guest]

The point of the post is a comparison of this year and last year.

Okay. I figured out on my own that you were comparing this season to last season. What I asked you for was a "conclusion." What is the point of comparing this year statistics with last year's statistics? Surely, you didn't do all of your research simply to prove that you were capable of doing research?

So I am the only person who finds statistical comparisons for their own sake, interesting? A conclusion could be stated "We have improved a LOT on offense this season," however with the glaring discrepancy between statistical data, is their any need to state a conclusion? It is interesting to look at.

 

[rtauburnsucks]

I like that. I knew we had imporved over time, just not sure how much.

 

[reger60]

I like that. I knew we had imporved over time, just not sure how much.

Now THAT is a conclusion.

 

[srbbamaman]

Hard to agree with all of that about the offense. We still play 2 or maybe even 3 of the best defenses in the SEC and maybe even the country. So our offensive production could go down a bit after those games on average. Also on the time of possession wasn't the rule changed back this year where the clock did not start after a change of possession thus making the game last longer? Just my thoughts. I do like where the team is heading and we seem to be getting better as the year goes on, which was not the case the last couple of years. The verdict is still out on this year.

 

[Guest]

Hard to agree with all of that about the offense. We still play 2 or maybe even 3 of the best defenses in the SEC and maybe even the country. So our offensive production could go down a bit after those games on average. Also on the time of possession wasn't the rule changed back this year where the clock did not start after a change of possession thus making the game last longer? Just my thoughts. I do like where the team is heading and we seem to be getting better as the year goes on, which was not the case the last couple of years. The verdict is still out on this year.

The rule about the clock starting was just last season and we actually scored MORE last year than we did in 2005. In 2005 we only scored 263 points on the season, yet we won 10 games. The time of possession should have swung the other way if your suggestion was the case. The reality is, the last four years we were notorious for snapping the ball with 1 second left on the play clock...remember all those delay of game penalties?


I don't know where you get 3 best defenses from. LSU and the barn are good but MSU is not good. They are ranked 39 in total defense, and capable of playing a good game, but not consistently. We have played 4 teams this season with higher rated defenses.

LSU dropped 45 on MSU.
USC 38
UT 33
WVU 38 (31 in the first quarter)

Between MSU averaging giving up 29ppg in SEC play, and La. Monroe giving up 54 to TAMU and 49 to Clemson, we should be able to average out pretty close to what we are trending right now - even if LSU and Agbarn hold us to 250 & 20. MSU & La Mo will be 400+ and 40+ imo.