Jordan Davis, DT, Georgia
The Chargers again struggled against the run in 2021, an issue that has plagued them for years. Just go back to their 2018 divisional-round playoff game against the Patriots, when they were dominated up front. They allowed 4.8 yards per carry this season, which ranked 28th in the NFL. With Linval Joseph hitting free agency, there is a massive hole in the middle of their defensive line.
Who better to fill that than the 6-foot-6, 340-pound Davis? He'd make the entire defense better because he eats up blocks and allows linebackers to roam free. He also can play on three downs; he's not just a plugger. He showed on his sack in the national title game that he has some pass-rush ability, which is scary for a man of his size. Davis won't be a fit for every team, but the teams that run a 3-4 defense will eye him in this range.
Kenny Pickett, QB, Pitt
The Saints won four of five games to end the season and almost snuck into the playoffs, but their offense was subpar after Jameis Winston tore his ACL in late October. If Winston goes elsewhere in free agency, Sean Payton is going to want a new quarterback to coach up. Taysom Hill, who turns 32 before the start of the 2022 season, hasn't shown enough to be considered their QB of the present nor future.
That's why I see Pickett, who's coming off an efficient 42-touchdown, seven-interception season, as the perfect fit for New Orleans. He took a huge leap in 2021, showing off pinpoint accuracy to every area of the field. He started 49 games in college, so he can play right away for a team that wants to compete for the playoffs. The biggest question I've heard from people in the NFL is one that you might laugh at: hand size. Pickett has small hands -- we'll find out their exact size at the Senior Bowl soon -- and that matters to the teams doing the drafting. If he can play his home games in a dome in New Orleans, that's a plus.
Chris Olave, WR, Ohio State
Let's finish out the Eagles' picks with another wide receiver, which would make back-to-back-to-back drafts that Philly went wideout in Round 1. This is still an issue, though. DeVonta Smith had a good rookie season and looks to be the clear No. 1, but 2020 first-rounder Jalen Reagor underwhelmed and might never be more than a decent third option. Going back to the 2019 draft, the Eagles took J.J. Arcega-Whiteside in Round 2, but he has just 16 catches over three seasons. Jalen Hurts has to get some more help.
Olave was a touchdown machine at Ohio State -- he had 35 in four seasons -- and he's one of the best deep threats in this class. At 6-foot-1, he can play inside or outside. He's a player who looks better and better when you watch all of his snaps in a game, because even if he didn't catch 10 passes, he was always open.
Matt Corral, QB, Ole Miss
Like the Saints, the Steelers could immediately contend if they can figure out their quarterback position this offseason. Ben Roethlisberger appears likely to retire. I don't see backups Mason Rudolph or Dwayne Haskins as NFL starters. They do have a strong core on both sides of the ball, though. If they acquire a veteran signal-caller via free agency or in a trade, this could be a spot to target a linemen to help a below-average O-line, but let's assume for now that they go into the draft without adding one.
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Will Matt Corral be a top 20 draft pick?
Field Yates and Mel Kiper Jr. discuss Ole Miss' Matt Corral and his potential of being a quarterback in the NFL.
Corral fits the mentality of what Mike Tomlin wants from his team. He's tough. He took a beating in multiple games in 2021, even running 30 times for 195 yards in a win over Tennessee. Oh, and he's a stellar passer, too, with touch, accuracy and arm strength. At 6-foot, he's not the biggest quarterback, but he threw 20 touchdown passes and just five picks this season. Corral sprained his ankle in the Rebels' bowl game but should be fine to work out at the combine. Because he hasn't yet graduated from school, he's the only one of the top QBs who won't be at the Senior Bowl, but he'll get his chance to show his skill set in front of scouts later.
Jameson Williams, WR, Alabama
The Patriots had a solid 2021 draft, with quarterback Mac Jones and defensive tackle Christian Barmore turning into early starters and Day 3 pick Rhamondre Stevenson showing value in a running back rotation. What stuck out to me as I watched the Patriots, though, was their lack of playmakers in the passing game. Their top two receivers were former undrafted free agents (Jacobi Meyers and Kendrick Bourne), and their tight ends didn't beat defenders after the catch (when they got open). N'Keal Henry hasn't developed like they had hoped. If they can get a deep threat for Jones here, they should be thrilled.
Williams, an Ohio State transfer with blazing speed, had a fantastic season for the Crimson Tide, catching 79 passes for 1,572 yards and 15 touchdowns. He would likely be in the top-10 range if he didn't tear his ACL in the national title game, which means he might not be ready for training camp. Still, I don't think he's going to fall too far, because he's a true No. 1 wideout when he's healthy. This is good value for New England.
Andrew Booth Jr., CB, Clemson
This is another tough pick to figure out, with general manager Mike Mayock out and the Raiders now searching for someone to run their football operations. The Las Vegas roster has some issues, particularly along the right side of its offensive line and in the secondary, so I went with the top cornerback left on my board. Fifth-round pick Nate Hobbs was a nice find in last year's draft, but this defense could use Booth, a 6-foot press-coverage corner who allowed only one completion of more than 20 yards in 2021. He was extremely consistent over the past two seasons, locking down receivers. The Raiders ranked 27th in QBR allowed (51.4) this season; taking Booth would address a weakness.
George Karlaftis, DE, Purdue
After a 10-2 start, the Cardinals lost five of their final six games and crashed out in the playoffs, a disappointing finish for a team that once looked like a Super Bowl contender. And I think you can point to J.J. Watt's shoulder injury in late October as a big reason the defense took a step back down the stretch. Watt is still signed for another season, but his injury history means that Arizona needs to think about a replacement. That's Karlaftis, a powerful 275-pound end who might be better in a 3-4 defense. He had only 4.5 sacks in 2021, but his pressure numbers were elite, even if he didn't always get home to the quarterback. He's really good against the run, too.
Travon Walker, DE, Georgia
Dallas had a disappointing playoff exit, but it still has a lot of young talent, led by do-it-all rookie linebacker Micah Parsons. The organization, however, has looming decisions on several free agents, including Randy Gregory, Dalton Schultz, Michael Gallup, Connor Williams, Leighton Vander Esch and Jayron Kearse. That means we're going to know in March who the Cowboys have prioritized as guys to bring back and which positions will actually be needs by the time the draft rolls around in late April. Every team covets edge rushers, though.
Walker, whom McShay recently called "one of the most underrated prospects in the class," stands out every time I watch the loaded Georgia defense. He can blow up tackles at the point of attack, and he has the physical traits to chase down ball carriers in the run game. At 6-foot-5 and 275 pounds, he has some scheme versatility at the next level.
Picks 25-32 will be set after each round of the playoffs. The order of these picks is now based on projections from ESPN's Football Power Index.
Trevor Penning, OT, Northern Iowa
There's no way the Bengals would take back their choice of wideout Ja'Marr Chase over offensive tackle Penei Sewell in last year's draft, but you saw this season why so many of us thought they would take Sewell. Joe Burrow was sacked 55 times -- third most in the league -- and the offense averaged 4.0 yards per rush, which ranked 26th. It ranked 30th in ESPN's pass block win rate metric. This is a below-average offensive line. Luckily for the Bengals, this is a deep tackle class at the top.
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The 6-foot-7 Penning towered over defenders at the FCS level, and he was rarely challenged. He makes things look easy. Yes, it's a big leap to the NFL, but I think he has the traits to be an early starter. If Cincinnati wants to keep 2019 first-rounder Jonah Williams on the left side, Penning could easily slot in at right tackle, where free-agent-to-be Riley Reiff played for most of 2021.
Jahan Dotson, WR, Penn State
Miami has used significant assets to build its offense around quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, but not every move has worked out, particularly along the offensive line. They've used three top-50 picks on the O-line in the past two drafts, and none of the three -- Austin Jackson, Liam Eichenberg and Robert Hunt -- is a surefire above-average starter. With Trevor Penning off the board in the previous pick, though, I don't have another lineman with a Round 1 grade. So let's address another spot to help Tagovailoa with this pick, which comes from the 49ers' trade up in last year's draft.
Dotson is a speedster who had 91 catches for 1,182 yards and 12 scores in 2021. Jaylen Waddle caught 104 passes as a rookie, but the best way to help Tagovailoa is to get him another pass-catcher who can make plays after the catch. Dotson is explosive with the ball in his hands and has the versatility to line up all over the field.
Trent McDuffie, CB, Washington
Buffalo doesn't have many holes on its roster, but Tre'Davious White's season-ending knee injury in November put the focus on its cornerback depth. This late in the first round, teams are hoping for rookie starters, but they'll also take high-upside prospects who could grow into starters in time. McDuffie can cover wideouts outside or from in the slot, so the versatility is a plus. He was very good in man coverage for the Huskies. I also thought about a guard here, and the Bills' running backs were disappointing again in 2021, even though Devin Singletary had a couple of good games to end the season. This is a little too high for a back on my board, but we could see risers after the combine, so keep an eye out.
Sam Howell, QB, North Carolina
I'm not sold on Jared Goff being Detroit's guy past 2022, so why not take a quarterback flier here with the pick it got from the trade with the Rams? By taking Howell in Round 1, the Lions would get his fifth-year option, which means they could hand over the reins in 2023. Yes, they have a lot of needs, but if they think they can get their future starting signal-caller, they should pounce.
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0:38
Sam Howell pulls off a trick play for North Carolina TD
Sam Howell fools South Carolina and passes 37 yards to Garrett Walston for a TD, the 2-point conversion attempt succeeds.
Howell is a tricky evaluation, and he could definitely drop to Round 2. He looked like a potential top-10 pick after his sophomore season in 2020. At the beginning of the 2021 season, though, he really struggled, and he put a lot of bad tape out there while throwing to a completely new set of pass-catchers. He settled back in and improved down the stretch, finishing with 24 touchdown passes and nine picks, plus 11 rushing scores. He throws a beautiful deep ball and has tremendous touch on passes.
Cameron Thomas, DE, San Diego State
The Chiefs fixed their offensive line last offseason, but they still have issues on the other side of the ball. They ranked 30th in the NFL in yards per play allowed (5.9) and 31st in rushing yards allowed per carry (4.8) this season. They also had just 31 sacks, which ranked 29th. This is a defensive line that could use an infusion of young talent.
I like Thomas a lot because of his versatility -- he lined up at both tackle and end for the Aztecs and created havoc at both spots. He had 11.5 sacks and a whopping 27 total tackles for loss in 2021. He's powerful in the run game and has some bend as a pass-rusher. He'd be a menace for offensive tackles if he lined up next to Chris Jones.
DeMarvin Leal, DL, Texas A&M
Like the Cowboys, the Bucs have several free agents hitting the open market this offseason, including center Ryan Jensen, wide receiver Chris Godwin, cornerback Carlton Davis and defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul. So while time will tell which players they bring back, this pick is about a like-for-like replacement for Ndamukong Suh, who turned 35 earlier this month and has been playing on one-year contracts.
The 290-pound Leal could play defensive end in a 3-4 scheme or 3-technique tackle in a 4-3. He has a powerful lower half and strong hands. He had 8.5 sacks for the Aggies in 2021, showing improvement on his ability to take down quarterbacks.
Kyler Gordon, CB, Washington
I really liked Caleb Farley in the 2021 class, but a torn ACL ended his season after just two games, and that was after a back injury dropped him to the Titans in Round 1. That injury history is a little scary, which is why the Titans could go with back-to-back first-round corners.
Like his college teammate Trent McDuffie, Gordon has some scheme versatility and the ability to play in the slot as well as outside. He improved a lot in 2021, picking off two passes and breaking up seven throws. He can also tackle, and I think he'll test well at the combine.
Trey McBride, TE, Colorado State
Is Aaron Rodgers staying in Green Bay or not? That's the ominous cloud that will hang over the team's offseason. Either way, I don't see it letting superstar wideout Davante Adams leave in free agency, so let's move to the other top need on offense. Robert Tonyan snagged 11 touchdowns in 2020, but he tore his ACL in October and is a free agent in the offseason. The Packers could bring him back on a short-term deal, or they could find a long-term solution with McBride, the draft's best tight end. He caught 90 passes for 1,121 yards in 2021, and he's also a good blocker.
