Ok... I will admit it. I have this nervous feeling in the pit of my stomach when I think about the game with Tennessee.
There are two ways to look at Tennessee. The first way is the nervous way. The nervous way follows the logic that Tennessee is a better team than their record. They were only a couple of points from besting Auburn, and they pretty much held their own against Georgia. Florida is a Jeckyl and Hyde team that could lose to Ole Miss one week, and beat the San Francisco 49'ers the next. Even though they beat UT soundly, the score was not indicative as to how close the game was statistically. UT actually outgained Florida, and a combination of turnovers and special teams plays made up the final margin.
UT lost to Auburn before they imploded, and while Auburn's offense was held in check, Auburn beat UT with their defense - which was good early in the season.
UT has a stingy defense, ranking second in the conference. They have one of the best safeties in the country in Eric Berry.
Looking at the game from this point, makes my stomach churn.
The other way of looking at the UT game is like this...
UT is not a very good team.
They lost on the road to UCLA, a team that is not as good as Clemson. UCLA is a 3-4 team themselves, with a 59-0 loss to BYU, and a loss to Arizona (themselves losers to Stanford and New Mexico). The same UCLA defense that was torched by BYU has given up more points than they did to UT in 4 games.
Against Auburn, Tennessee had less than 200 yards of total offense - only 64 passing, and 9 first downs. While they have improved in passing with a new QB, they have not improved THAT much.
In the win over N. Ill, UT scored just 13 points, and equaled their Auburn performance with 9 first downs. UNI held them to 69 yards rushing.
Against Florida, UT had just 258 yards of total offense (under 100 rushing) and scored just 6 points.
Georgia had over 450 yards of offense against UT, 148 rushing/310 passing. The UGA defense held UT to 1 yard rushing...one...uno...and 209 yards total offense. Alabama had 129/205 against the UGA D.
The MSU score is misleading. 34-3 sounds like a whipping, but the score was 13-3 in the 4th quarter. Two interceptions returned for TD's and a drive in the short field gave UT a 21 point 4th quarter to make the final margin. The UT offense had just 275 total yards against MSU, and while MSU was held to 189, you are talking about an offense that had just 116 against Auburn, and 247 against Vandy.
Alabama will play fundamentally sound football - something that the Vols have not done this season. Alabama's offense has balance and the ability to hurt you in different ways. UT has had defensive success when teams could not establish the run or pass effectively. Alabama can do both.
UT has been inconsistent if not abysmal at running the ball. They have been held under 100 yards rushing three times this season, and have only broken 150 twice - 177 against UCLA, and 266 against UAB. UCLA gave up 200 to BYU, 207 to Fresno, 323 to Oregon, and 250 to Stanford. They are not a good rushing defense.
UAB gave up 240 to Tulsa, 196 to Florida Atlantic, and 192 to Memphis. Nobody could argue that UAB has a SEC caliber run defense.
I already did the trickle down column for the week, but here is what I see happening.
UT will come out fired up, but will not be able to sustain anything on offense.
UT's defense will hold for a bit, but Alabama will move the ball and steadily accumulate yards and points.
UT will score a couple of times late in the game.
The final score will be about 35-14.
Throw in a couple of special teams plays or turnovers by the vols and it could be a worse final score than 2007.
Corso and other pundits who are predicting an upset have not looked at just how bad UT has been on offense this season, and are putting too much weight on Cody being out. Even without Cody, Alabama's defense is much improved over 2007, and UT only had 107 yards rushing in 2007. The 258 passing yards that UT had in 2007 were put up by Ainge, who is out of eligibility. The Vols have only broken 200 yards passing this season against UAB and UGA. UGA's one major weakness is in the secondary. While Alabama has given up yards, our passing efficiency defense is 3rd in the SEC, and we have given up just 9 TD's in 7 games - in spite of having had the ball thrown against us 40 more times than any other team in the SEC. With us jumping out in front and stuffing the run, teams have thrown the ball A LOT, but other than yards, there has been little to show for it.
Here is the reality of how good our defense has been. When you factor TD's per attempt, we only give up 1 TD for every 30 passes thrown. When you add that to a rushing defense only giving up 66 yards per game, you will win some ball games. UT is averaging 60 plays per game, including 77 against UCLA and 74 against UAB - the two teams they ran the ball against. Against UGA, UT had just 45 offensive plays. Our defense is comparable to UGA (better in the secondary). Given that we give up 1 TD per 30 attempts, and we have given up just 1 rushing TD on the season, UT will have to show more against us than they have shown all season - even to score 14 that I am predicting.
IF Alabama establishes the run and is able to use the play-action game effectively, it will be good night Gracie by half time.
but my stomach is still twitchy...
