| FTBL Bama vs Cincy analysis
- Thread starter bamaledge
- Start date
Justneedme81
Member
similar to arkansas defense... theyre good. explosive on offense when they are consistent. their tendencies is that when they get into 2nd and long, 3rd and long situations, they struggle to convert. Thats it.
BamaFan334
Member
I think they play us hard for a half before our depth and talent start to make the difference. Have they consistently been hit for four quarters against better competition to withstand, all while being productive and winning? I don't think so. I'm not saying it won't be testy to start, but I don't think they have the horses in the end.
Rolltide24
Member
I read where one of their DBs has never surrendered a TD in his 3 years there. That’s when he was the closest defender. They haven’t played the best passing attacks this year, but over 3 seasons, that’s pretty damn impressive. I also say, a non-power 5 playing in this game will not be the only first…
Is there D good compared to their schedule or ours?
rocknthefreeworld
Member
Their defense has allowed 7 fewer TD than Bama and they allow 0.3 yards per game less offense. Their offense has scored 2 more TD than Bama and averages 65 yards less per game.
Now, we have to look at their opponents. ELO Strength of Schedule has Bama at 14 and Cincinnati at 89. They played more teams with 2-3 wins than teams with 9 or more wins. Their average opponent was earound 4-8 to 6-6.
Now, we have to look at their opponents. ELO Strength of Schedule has Bama at 14 and Cincinnati at 89. They played more teams with 2-3 wins than teams with 9 or more wins. Their average opponent was earound 4-8 to 6-6.
College Football Playoff, Bowl Game First Thought Predictions, Analysis For All 44
Bowl game and College Football Playoff first predictions and quick initial analysis on all the matchups
collegefootballnews.com
Knee-Jerk Instant Analysis: Don’t automatically assume the worst here. Of course it’s Alabama, and of course it looked amazing against Georgia, and of course Cincinnati is that cute story with the one good win as it made its way into the College Football Playoff because there weren’t any other options.
Yeah, whatever. Watch out.
Remember, this is still the Alabama team that needed to go the length of the field to score more than three points against Auburn. It’s the team that got pushed to the edge by Florida, LSU, and Arkansas. It’s about to take a few big punches from a Cincinnati team that’s about to play with its hair on fire. The time off will help Bama get healthier and stronger, but it’ll take a while to start breathing easily.
No Research Bowl Prediction: Alabama 34, Cincinnati 20
Early Bowl Line Guess: Alabama -12.5
Actual Line: Alabama -13.5
It may be that close to start but I don’t think they have the hosses to play 4 qtrs with us. Bama by 3 scores.College Football Playoff, Bowl Game First Thought Predictions, Analysis For All 44
Bowl game and College Football Playoff first predictions and quick initial analysis on all the matchups
Knee-Jerk Instant Analysis: Don’t automatically assume the worst here. Of course it’s Alabama, and of course it looked amazing against Georgia, and of course Cincinnati is that cute story with the one good win as it made its way into the College Football Playoff because there weren’t any other options.
Yeah, whatever. Watch out.
Remember, this is still the Alabama team that needed to go the length of the field to score more than three points against Auburn. It’s the team that got pushed to the edge by Florida, LSU, and Arkansas. It’s about to take a few big punches from a Cincinnati team that’s about to play with its hair on fire. The time off will help Bama get healthier and stronger, but it’ll take a while to start breathing easily.
No Research Bowl Prediction: Alabama 34, Cincinnati 20
Early Bowl Line Guess: Alabama -12.5
Actual Line: Alabama -13.5
bamascw
Member
I know all of the reasons not to be over confident but I have seen them play several times this season, and I have yet to be impressed other than a few instances here or there. The transfer a running back they have, Ford, has done well he has 1200 yards this season but their second leading rusher is the quarterback with under 400 yards. Best receiver has under 900 yards of the second best receiver under 500, I just don’t see an offensive explosion with them. Of course the mobile quarterback has always given our defense trouble so we need to make sure we play sound defense and everyone stays home. I will say that they are defense does play sound football, they keep their position and they swarmed to the ball, but athletically I just don’t see them keeping up with our players, I don’t care how fundamentally sound you are at some point talent overwhelms you.
And I know it’s been mentioned but the majority of their games were played against teams with four wins or less, with one and two star athletes at best. I know we have had our struggles this season but most of our struggles were against teams with at least three and four star athletes, I really think over the length of the season the talent you play week after week after week makes you what you are.
I don’t expect them to roll over and curl up but I also do not expect this game to be close, unless we just turn the ball over five times or for some reason Bryce plays like me behind center.
And I know it’s been mentioned but the majority of their games were played against teams with four wins or less, with one and two star athletes at best. I know we have had our struggles this season but most of our struggles were against teams with at least three and four star athletes, I really think over the length of the season the talent you play week after week after week makes you what you are.
I don’t expect them to roll over and curl up but I also do not expect this game to be close, unless we just turn the ball over five times or for some reason Bryce plays like me behind center.
TerryP
Staff
In all of this talk about their corners I've seen several refer to Arkansas as a comparison. I'm not in that corner.
The one thing about Arkansas is we've seen them go back and forth with zone and man coverages; not uncommon, right? Cincy, in their 3-3-5, uses a boundary corner with Gardner. He's considered their best coverage back but up until now he's always on the short side of the field. Ideally you'd want him on JW.
That leads me to believe we'll see JW in motion a lot. It also leads me to believe the area Bama attacks will be their safeties through motion.
TerryP
Staff
A couple of game notes from Athlon:
That seems like a solid point. Conversely, Alabama averages more points per drive. Logically, their number is largely derived from starting field position which is, again, a solid point.
There's a constant theme in all of these game previews (bold.)
athlonsports.com
2. The most efficient offense in the playoff
Facing the defenses Cincinnati will or potentially will face in the College Football Playoff means the Bearcats must not let too many drives go by without putting points on the scoreboard. And fortunately for the Bearcats, they have one of the most efficient offenses in college football.
Coming into conference championship weekend, Cincinnati was tied for the fewest yards per point scored this season, with 11.0 yards for every point scored (Houston, whom Cincinnati beat in the AAC Championship Game, was tied for the lead prior to their game). Cincinnati knows how to capitalize on its opportunities, and the offense being this efficient is a confidence boost against some of the nation's top defenses. The Bearcats have scored a touchdown on 68.9 percent of red zone chances, which is 24th in the nation and second only to Alabama among CFP teams.
That seems like a solid point. Conversely, Alabama averages more points per drive. Logically, their number is largely derived from starting field position which is, again, a solid point.
There's a constant theme in all of these game previews (bold.)
1. This isn't your ordinary Group of 5 defense
The numbers show that Cincinnati has a top-10 defense, and that is always a plus for an underdog. And while the bulk of Cincinnati's defensive success has come against weaker competition than any other playoff team has faced this season, the Bearcats have been built to compete with higher-powered offenses.
Cincinnati Football: 5 Reasons Why the Bearcats Will Win the College Football Playoff
Here are five reasons why the Cincinnati Bearcats will make the most of being the first-ever Group of 5 team in the College Football Playoff by winning the national title.
athlonsports.com
BAMA will score early and often on them. Their coach will be concerned about a new job more than winning IMO.
bamascw
Member
You have to wonder if Chicago isn’t going to make a run for Ryan Day, Which opens up Ohio State Fickell
A couple of game notes from Athlon:
2. The most efficient offense in the playoffFacing the defenses Cincinnati will or potentially will face in the College Football Playoff means the Bearcats must not let too many drives go by without putting points on the scoreboard. And fortunately for the Bearcats, they have one of the most efficient offenses in college football.Coming into conference championship weekend, Cincinnati was tied for the fewest yards per point scored this season, with 11.0 yards for every point scored (Houston, whom Cincinnati beat in the AAC Championship Game, was tied for the lead prior to their game). Cincinnati knows how to capitalize on its opportunities, and the offense being this efficient is a confidence boost against some of the nation's top defenses. The Bearcats have scored a touchdown on 68.9 percent of red zone chances, which is 24th in the nation and second only to Alabama among CFP teams.
That seems like a solid point. Conversely, Alabama averages more points per drive. Logically, their number is largely derived from starting field position which is, again, a solid point.
There's a constant theme in all of these game previews (bold.)
1. This isn't your ordinary Group of 5 defenseThe numbers show that Cincinnati has a top-10 defense, and that is always a plus for an underdog. And while the bulk of Cincinnati's defensive success has come against weaker competition than any other playoff team has faced this season, the Bearcats have been built to compete with higher-powered offenses.
Cincinnati Football: 5 Reasons Why the Bearcats Will Win the College Football Playoff
Here are five reasons why the Cincinnati Bearcats will make the most of being the first-ever Group of 5 team in the College Football Playoff by winning the national title.
Not directed at you @TerryP but directed at the “Top 10 defense” and weaker competition line.
rocknthefreeworld
Member
Just so we are all on the same page as far as SOS, Cincinnati played the following: Miami-Ohio (6-6 MAC), Murray State (6-5 FCS), Indiana (2-10 Big East), Notre Dame (11-1 Conceited), Temple (3-9 AAC), UCF (8-4 AAC), Navy (3-8 AAC), Tulane (2-10 AAC), Tulsa (6-6 AAC), USF (2-10 AAC), SMU (8-4 AAC), ECU (7-5 AAC), Houston (11-2 AAC). Out of 130 teams the NCAA tracks stats for, most of those are in the bottom 50% for total offense or total defense (usually both). Not pretending that this is a walk in the park as they are the most talented and well coached of the G5 teams obviously and they have a chip on their shoulder to carry. But just pointing out that their stats are going to be really, really hard to judge against anything. It feels a lot like Oklahoma making the playoffs recently, they steamroll through an easy schedule with only one or two challenges then hit the real teams and wilt. But they can beat you if you don't come in with the right mindset.
Yeah, there are a number of senior heavy teams who will be much weaker next year. I think Georgia takes a few steps back next year. Cincy better use this year to go join the Big 12.
