| GAME THREAD Alabama Football Wins 2018 National Championship in Overtime Thriller against Georgia, 26-23

A couple of thoughts leading into tonights game that are in no particular order--random thoughts, if you will:

  • You're going to see a lot of talk about the UGA linebacking corps: it's deserved. I'd caution that you take the analysis in context. It's a fast group built to pursue sideline to sideline. It's not a group that is built to meet offensive lineman getting to the second level. I see this as a Bama advantage in the power running game between the tackles. A quick glance at the interior linebacks for UGA will show their MIKE has zero sacks on the year and only 2.5 tackles for a loss.
  • I see a "heavy leg" factor coming into play for UGA along their defensive line. They have depth, but don't have that significant player that disrupts like Bama's Payne.
  • Speaking of the defensive line I look to see some of the same approach we saw against Clemson with Ray and Hand still playing on the line but from a stand-up position. It will allow them to get that inside arm outside of the UGA tackles--more importantly it'll provide help setting the edge against UGA.
  • Setting the edge: that's where I see Bama missing Jennings the most.
  • I believe we can count on Lewis having a solid game. The offensive tackles really had no answer for him last week and I don't think UGA will either. It's the other side that brings pause.
  • How well will Miller be able to set the edge against the running game? I don't see UGA having success running the ball up the middle when facing Evans and Wilson. The way Wilson defended the middle on passing down as well as how quickly he hit the gaps in the running game tells me Chaney and company won't try to run straight at the interior group. As mentioned earlier this week I expect the approach to be a "multi-headed monster" with Miller, Mosley, and McMillon filling in for Anfernee. Again, it's all about setting that edge.
  • While UGA did change their approach against Auburn in the SECCG some things remained the same. They still ran the ball on their normal downs--over 60% of the time drawing close to 70%. It didn't change that much on second downs. Even on some of their passing downs they were handing the ball off. The difference, as mentioned, is in their first meeting it was predominately inside zone and in the CG they were hitting the perimeter. It was their only choice. They couldn't block at the point of attack. They won't be able to against Bama.
  • Alabama, quite frankly, is a much better team when it comes to the play of the outside linebackers--even with the loss of Jennings.
  • There will be no surprises when Bama sees UGA attacking the perimeter. That's made game prep a little easier on the Bama staff. (And trust me on this one, Jim Chaney is NO offensive savant.) Here's where it falls on the quarterback(s.)
  • Don't doubt Fromm. He's been very efficient this season on explosive passing plays. What's interesting to me is the majority of his completions have gone to his "blind side." Levi has been targeted more than Anthony and yet he comes into this game with a lower percentage of completions allowed (@37% to @45%) and has more PBU's (9 vs 3.) It'll read oddly to you when you consider Fitz has fewer PBU's, he's allowed more completions, but fewer explosive plays. And yes, in all categories Brown ranks lower than the other three.
  • Don't sleep on Buggs. He's had more QB pressures than Ledbetter, Carter, or Bellamy for UGA. And, he's behind Rashaan in these categories.
  • Two words of note on UGA's defense. Gap integrity. It's an undisciplined group.
  • One word on those who keep saying "Kirby knows Saban's defense better than anyone." Farce. Yes, it's technically true, but it's farcical to claim an advantage considering Saban has been watching Kirby call defenses over the same period of time.
  • I look for some confusion on defensive sets called from UGA--let's call it a two chief approach. Tucker has been calling the sets, Kirby the adjustments. I can easily see a few wasted timeouts on the UGA side--wasted, as in needed later.
  • IF UGA is able to, somewhat, control the Bama running game I still see this in favor of the Tide. In order to do so they'll have to be floating their defensive backs up in run coverage. I don't see UGA having the right personnel to be able to do that and then defend the passing game (yes, even with Jalen for some of you.)
  • Mentioned earlier was the speed of the UGA linebacking corps. On the other hand, if Bama employs the option based schemes they did against Clemson we'll see UGA's front stymied: literally standing still for a moment.
  • (Does anyone think Clemson's defense would have given up 48 to Oklahoma? I digress...)
  • For UGA to be successful against Bama on offense they will have to throw on the ball on the regular downs. It goes against their MO for the entire year. Would you, as a coach, change what "got you there?"
  • It's Chaney. I look for UGA to try to utilize the screen game. That's his MO.
  • On that note I look for Bama to play a lot of press coverage--especially on second down. As mentioned in the discussion about OU, Baker, and "tight windows." It was a very similar approach they took with Bryant last week.
  • I'm looking for play action on first downs with UGA--deep shots. That'll lead to second down passing attempts (see above.)
  • I do look for Bama to be in base a lot based on the tendency UGA has shown to use two WR sets.
  • Without getting too technical here Bama has been working on their 3-4 over scheme a bit his past week. The benefit here is it puts the SAM a little closer to the line and also puts them in pass defense against the TE and RB's coming out. I'm not expecting that the majority of the time.

Game prediction:
Bama wins straight up.
Bama covers.
I'm seeing a 24-17 game (with 17 as a cap.)

From Vegas:

3.png

<img alt="" src="https://ih0.redbubble.net/image.567420689.0744/pp,650x642-pad,750x1000,f8f8f8.u2.jpg" style="width: 75px; height: 100px;" />
[*]IF you're really fretting about this game I'd encourage you to climb up on Georgia's ego and then jump to the IQ's demonstrated by some of the media you'll be hearing today.
</s>
 
bamaledge said:
I’m as nervous as a prostitute in church, as a lizard in a chicken coop. I’m as nervous as a, we’ll, y’all get the idea. I’m gonna start the Valium early.
ROLL TIDE!
Click to expand...
TerryP said:
<img alt="" src="https://ih0.redbubble.net/image.567420689.0744/pp,650x642-pad,750x1000,f8f8f8.u2.jpg" style="width: 75px; height: 100px;" />
[*]IF you're really fretting about this game I'd encourage you to climb up on Georgia's ego and then jump to the IQ's demonstrated by some of the media you'll be hearing today.
</s>
Click to expand...
:poke2:
 
TerryP said:
A couple of thoughts leading into tonights game that are in no particular order--random thoughts, if you will:

  • You're going to see a lot of talk about the UGA linebacking corps: it's deserved. I'd caution that you take the analysis in context. It's a fast group built to pursue sideline to sideline. It's not a group that is built to meet offensive lineman getting to the second level. I see this as a Bama advantage in the power running game between the tackles. A quick glance at the interior linebacks for UGA will show their MIKE has zero sacks on the year and only 2.5 tackles for a loss.
  • I see a "heavy leg" factor coming into play for UGA along their defensive line. They have depth, but don't have that significant player that disrupts like Bama's Payne.
  • Speaking of the defensive line I look to see some of the same approach we saw against Clemson with Ray and Hand still playing on the line but from a stand-up position. It will allow them to get that inside arm outside of the UGA tackles--more importantly it'll provide help setting the edge against UGA.
  • Setting the edge: that's where I see Bama missing Jennings the most.
  • I believe we can count on Lewis having a solid game. The offensive tackles really had no answer for him last week and I don't think UGA will either. It's the other side that brings pause.
  • How well will Miller be able to set the edge against the running game? I don't see UGA having success running the ball up the middle when facing Evans and Wilson. The way Wilson defended the middle on passing down as well as how quickly he hit the gaps in the running game tells me Chaney and company won't try to run straight at the interior group. As mentioned earlier this week I expect the approach to be a "multi-headed monster" with Miller, Mosley, and McMillon filling in for Anfernee. Again, it's all about setting that edge.
  • While UGA did change their approach against Auburn in the SECCG some things remained the same. They still ran the ball on their normal downs--over 60% of the time drawing close to 70%. It didn't change that much on second downs. Even on some of their passing downs they were handing the ball off. The difference, as mentioned, is in their first meeting it was predominately inside zone and in the CG they were hitting the perimeter. It was their only choice. They couldn't block at the point of attack. They won't be able to against Bama.
  • Alabama, quite frankly, is a much better team when it comes to the play of the outside linebackers--even with the loss of Jennings.
  • There will be no surprises when Bama sees UGA attacking the perimeter. That's made game prep a little easier on the Bama staff. (And trust me on this one, Jim Chaney is NO offensive savant.) Here's where it falls on the quarterback(s.)
  • Don't doubt Fromm. He's been very efficient this season on explosive passing plays. What's interesting to me is the majority of his completions have gone to his "blind side." Levi has been targeted more than Anthony and yet he comes into this game with a lower percentage of completions allowed (@37% to @45%) and has more PBU's (9 vs 3.) It'll read oddly to you when you consider Fitz has fewer PBU's, he's allowed more completions, but fewer explosive plays. And yes, in all categories Brown ranks lower than the other three.
  • Don't sleep on Buggs. He's had more QB pressures than Ledbetter, Carter, or Bellamy for UGA. And, he's behind Rashaan in these categories.
  • Two words of note on UGA's defense. Gap integrity. It's an undisciplined group.
  • One word on those who keep saying "Kirby knows Saban's defense better than anyone." Farce. Yes, it's technically true, but it's farcical to claim an advantage considering Saban has been watching Kirby call defenses over the same period of time.
  • I look for some confusion on defensive sets called from UGA--let's call it a two chief approach. Tucker has been calling the sets, Kirby the adjustments. I can easily see a few wasted timeouts on the UGA side--wasted, as in needed later.
  • IF UGA is able to, somewhat, control the Bama running game I still see this in favor of the Tide. In order to do so they'll have to be floating their defensive backs up in run coverage. I don't see UGA having the right personnel to be able to do that and then defend the passing game (yes, even with Jalen for some of you.)
  • Mentioned earlier was the speed of the UGA linebacking corps. On the other hand, if Bama employs the option based schemes they did against Clemson we'll see UGA's front stymied: literally standing still for a moment.
  • (Does anyone think Clemson's defense would have given up 48 to Oklahoma? I digress...)
  • For UGA to be successful against Bama on offense they will have to throw on the ball on the regular downs. It goes against their MO for the entire year. Would you, as a coach, change what "got you there?"
  • It's Chaney. I look for UGA to try to utilize the screen game. That's his MO.
  • On that note I look for Bama to play a lot of press coverage--especially on second down. As mentioned in the discussion about OU, Baker, and "tight windows." It was a very similar approach they took with Bryant last week.
  • I'm looking for play action on first downs with UGA--deep shots. That'll lead to second down passing attempts (see above.)
  • I do look for Bama to be in base a lot based on the tendency UGA has shown to use two WR sets.
  • Without getting too technical here Bama has been working on their 3-4 over scheme a bit his past week. The benefit here is it puts the SAM a little closer to the line and also puts them in pass defense against the TE and RB's coming out. I'm not expecting that the majority of the time.

Game prediction:
Bama wins straight up.
Bama covers.
I'm seeing a 24-17 game (with 17 as a cap.)

From Vegas:

View attachment 8082

<img alt="" src="https://ih0.redbubble.net/image.567420689.0744/pp,650x642-pad,750x1000,f8f8f8.u2.jpg" style="width: 75px; height: 100px;" />
[*]IF you're really fretting about this game I'd encourage you to climb up on Georgia's ego and then jump to the IQ's demonstrated by some of the media you'll be hearing today.
</s>
Click to expand...
Thanks for the heads up on what to watch and why. I enjoy your comments and appreciate the time you spend on this.
 
I haven't wanted to rush through a weekend this bad, well ever. I am so sick and tired of hearing the radio stations, bandwagon bullshit, and belittling remarks about us from these Bulldog fans. I haven't talked to my family all week, and I hope their bubble gets bursted tonight. Half these radio personalities and call ins couldn't name seven people on Georgia's roster, yet getting Dawg tattoos, calling us imbred rednecks, simply can't understand us flying in, yadda yadda. I hope our boys take it to their asses tonight.
 
From Rivals.com

Bama vs. Georgia in the trenches:

Success Rate
Success rates examine your efficiency and consistency in staying on schedule and putting yourself in position to move the chains.

quote:
Opportunity Rate
This is the percentage of carries in which the offensive line "does its job" and produces at least five yards of rushing for the runner. (Generally speaking, the first five yards are considered the line's responsibility, the next five are split evenly between the runner and the line, and anything over 10 yards is all on the runner.) See Highlight Yards and Adj. Line Yards for more information.

quote:
Adj. Line Yards
Statistic that attempts to, even to a small extent, separate the ability of a running back from the ability of the offensive line. Adjusted Line Yards begin as a measure of average rushing yards per play by running backs only, adjusted in the following way:

0-4 yards: 100% strength
5-10 yards: 50% strength
11+ yards: not included
runs for a loss: 120% strength

Each play is also adjusted based on game situation as well as quality of opponents faced. Adjusted Line Yards can be listed as total or broken down by direction to attempt to isolate ability of specific linemen.


So, with all that said, here is what those numbers look like for what would generally be considered our 5 best defensive opponents : FSU, LSU, Mississippi State, Auburn, Clemson and now Georgia. And, on the flip side, our 5 best offensive opponents : Ole Miss, LSU, Mississippi State, Auburn, Clemson.

There should also be one caveat here, which is that LSU overloaded the box with an extra man and dared us to throw the ball. So, while we didn't block particularly well that game, there was also a very clear (and acknowledge by LSU) numbers advantage that contributed to a performance that sticks out like a sore thumb compared to the others.


Alabama Offense vs Opponent Defenses

Rushing Success Rate
Alabama : 11th

Florida State : 44th (173 yards, 4.1 YPA)
LSU : 52nd (116 yards, 3.2 YP)
Mississippi State : 38th (202 yards, 5.3 YPA)
Auburn : 12th (211 yards, 5.6 YPA)
Clemson : 18th (141 yards, 3.4 YPA)
Georgia : 29th


Ad. Line Yards
Alabama : 6th

Florida State : 9th (173 yards, 4.1 YPA)
LSU : 50th (116 yards, 3.2 YP)
Mississippi State : 3rd (202 yards, 5.3 YPA)
Auburn : 16th (211 yards, 5.6 YPA)
Clemson : 19th (141 yards, 3.4 YPA)
Georgia : 29th


Opportunity Rate
Alabama : 2nd

Florida State : 47th (173 yards, 4.1 YPA)
LSU : 52nd (116 yards, 3.2 YP)
Mississippi State : 70th (202 yards, 5.3 YPA)
Auburn : 27th (211 yards, 5.6 YPA)
Clemson : 8th (141 yards, 3.4 YPA)
Georgia : 40th




Alabama Defense vs Opponent Offenses

Rushing Success Rate
Alabama: 1st

Ole Miss : 33rd (88 yards, 3.4 YPA)
LSU : 8th (151 yards, 3.6 YPA)
Mississippi State : 16th (172 yards, 3.5 YPA)
Auburn : 34th (168 yards, 3.4 YPA)
Clemson : 13th (64 yards, 1.9 YPA)
Georgia : 20th


Ad. Line Yards
Alabama : 2nd

Ole Miss : 35th (88 yards, 3.4 YPA)
LSU : 4th (151 yards, 3.6 YPA)
Mississippi State : 19th (172 yards, 3.5 YPA)
Auburn : 25th (168 yards, 3.4 YPA)
Clemson : 3rd (64 yards, 1.9 YPA)
Georgia : 12th


Opportunity Rate
Alabama : 3rd

Ole Miss : 29th (88 yards, 3.4 YPA)
LSU : 7th (151 yards, 3.6 YPA)
Mississippi State : 6th (172 yards, 3.5 YPA)
Auburn : 64th (168 yards, 3.4 YPA)
Clemson : 26th (64 yards, 1.9 YPA)
Georgia : 9th
 
Dont know how i feel right now.....
UGA wins it will be .....
...they are the new dynasty (yea, right, one win ...same we heard bout Clemson last year)....
......Bamas dynasty is over....2 losses back to back for NC...
.....pupil over master..... smart is new saban...
.....feel confident.....but unsure....
Beers cold though.... warm fire in tv room....ribs smoked....
Lets do it..roll tide
 

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