| FTBL Ala Aub stats and comparison and keys to the game

[cjaytch]

SCORING OFFENSE G TD FG XPT 2XP DXP Saf Points Avg/G
2. Alabama 11 43 16 39 1 0 1 349 31.7
10. Auburn 11 25 11 23 0 0 1 208 18.9
Alabama has a clear advantage in terms of offensive production. Auburn has a good D but will need their offense to play their best game of the season to keep that Defense fresh. Otherwise this game could end up looking alot like the Alabama vs Tennessee game.

SCORING DEFENSE G TD FG XPT 2XP DXP Saf Points Avg/G
2. Alabama 11 17 7 15 0 0 0 138 12.5
3. Auburn 11 22 10 16 0 0 1 180 16.4

TOTAL OFFENSE G Rush Pass Plays Yards Avg/P TD Avg/G
6. Alabama 11 2184 1854 713 4038 5.7 35 367.1
8. Auburn 11 1593 1872 757 3465 4.6 19 315.0

TOTAL DEFENSE G Rush Pass Plays Yards Avg/P TD Avg/G
1. Alabama 11 826 1986 676 2812 4.2 15 255.6
6. Auburn 11 1433 1968 709 3401 4.8 21 309.2

RUSHING OFFENSE G Att Yards Avg. TD Yards/G
2. Alabama 11 452 2184 4.8 27 198.5
6. Auburn 11 439 1593 3.6 12 144.8

RUSHING DEFENSE G Att Yards Avg. TD Yards/G
1. Alabama 11 295 826 2.8 3 75.1
8. Auburn 11 358 1433 4.0 4 130.3


Alabama has an advantage on both sides of the ball in the rushing game, especially on Defense. Auburn must establish a run early to have a chance.

PASS OFFENSE G Comp Att Int Pct. Yards Avg. TD Avg/G
9. Auburn 11 175 318 13 55.0 1872 5.9 7 170.2
10. Alabama 11 155 261 6 59.4 1854 7.1 8 168.5

PASS DEFENSE G Comp Att Int Pct. Yards Avg. TD Avg/G
6. Auburn 11 189 351 11 53.8 1968 5.6 17 178.9
7. Alabama 11 196 381 15 51.4 1986 5.2 12 180.5

PASS EFFICIENCY G Comp Att Int Pct. Yards TD Effic.
4. Alabama 11 155 261 6 59.4 1854 8 124.6
9. Auburn 11 175 318 13 55.0 1872 7 103.6

And here is the game breaker. JPW has thrown 5 ints on the season. Auburns 2 QB's have thrown 13. The Alabama D has picked 15, returning 4 for TD's. If Auburn cant establish a running game, look for the Tiger QB's to be forced to try to win through the air. That hasn't worked well for them up to this point.

PASS DEFENSE EFFIC. G Comp Att Int Pct. Yards TD Effic.
2. Alabama 11 196 381 15 51.4 1986 12 97.7
7. Auburn 11 189 351 11 53.8 1968 17 110.7

KICKOFF RETURNS G No. Yards TD Avg.
1. Auburn 11 32 834 2 26.1
11. Alabama 11 30 572 0 19.1

PUNT RETURN AVG G No. Yards TD Avg.
3. Auburn 11 19 254 1 13.4
4. Alabama 11 44 588 3 13.4

INTERCEPTIONS G No. Yards TD Avg.
4. Alabama 11 15 305 4 20.3
8. Auburn 11 11 176 1 16.0
See above comments on Pass efficiency.

PUNTING G No. Yards Avg/P Ret. Avg. TB Net/P
2. Auburn 11 69 2829 41.0 177 2.6 3 37.6
10. Alabama 11 48 1963 40.9 196 4.1 4 35.1


SACKS BY G No. Yards
6. Alabama 11 21 157
9. Auburn 11 20 112

SACKS AGAINST G No. Yards
4. Alabama 11 15 111
7. Auburn 11 19 139

FIRST DOWNS G Rush Pass Pen Total Avg/G
4. Alabama 11 104 91 14 209 19.0
8. Auburn 11 98 78 14 190 17.3

OPPONENT 1ST DOWNS G Rush Pass Pen Total Avg/G
1. Alabama 11 44 91 13 148 13.5
7. Auburn 11 72 95 16 183 16.6

3RD-DOWN CONVERSIONS G Conv. Att. Pct.
2. Alabama 11 61 143 42.7
8. Auburn 11 61 169 36.1

OPP 3RD-DN CONVERT G Conv. Att. Pct.
1. Alabama 11 39 158 24.7
2. Auburn 11 43 156 27.6

4TH-DOWN CONVERSIONS G Conv. Att. Pct.
1. Alabama 11 6 6 100.0
10. Auburn 11 5 12 41.7

OPP 4TH-DN CONVERT G Conv. Att. Pct.
3. Auburn 11 6 14 42.9
7. Alabama 11 10 20 50.0

PENALTIES G No. Yards Avg/G
1. Alabama 11 47 418 38.0
9. Auburn 11 70 523 47.5

OPPONENT PENALTIES G No. Yards Avg/G
6. Auburn 11 58 496 45.1
11. Alabama 11 67 485 44.1
12. Georgia 11 56 473 43.0

TIME OF POSSESSION G Poss. Time Avg/G
1. Alabama 11 354:55 32:15
3. Auburn 11 338:03 30:43

Gained Lost
TURNOVER MARGIN G Fumb Int Total Fumb Int Total Margin Per/G
3. Alabama 11 6 15 21 9 6 15 +6 0.55
9. Auburn 11 7 11 18 10 13 23 -5 -0.45

This is why Alabama is 11-0 and Auburn is 5-6.

Red Zone Touchdowns Field Goals Lost possession
RED ZONE OFFENSE G Scores-Chances Pct. TDs Rush-Pass Made-Att Fumb Int. Downs Other
6. Alabama 11 38-46 82.6 26 22-4 12-16 2 1 0 1
12. Auburn 11 20-35 57.1 13 8-5 7-12 3 2 4 1

Red Zone Touchdowns Field Goals Lost possession
RED ZONE DEFENSE G Scores-Chances Pct. TDs Rush-Pass Made-Att Fumb Int. Downs Other
2. Auburn 11 20-29 69.0 14 2-12 6-10 0 3 2 0
8. Alabama 11 13-16 81.2 7 2-5 6-8 0 0 1 0

The Crimson Tide and the Tigers are comparable on Defense. In fact, looking over these stats, the only thing that truly separates these teams is QB play and turnovers. If Bama keeps doing what it has done all season: Physical Line play, mistake free QB play, and shutting down the other teams run, Bama should win this game. What I expect is for Auburn to play Bama TOUGH but the Tiger D to get tired as the game wears on and their offense cant sustain drives.

The Coaching Factor:
I expect Tommy T to reach deep into his bag of tricks, back to the old riverboat gambler days. He has nothing to lose at this point. I expect a fake in the kicking game a la' Ole Miss. However, Im sure that Nick Saban is aware he is 2-4 vs Tommy T. I believe Saban will have his players prepared.

 

[imported_RollTideRandy]

These stats make Auburn's defense look very overrated in my opinion. Not because of points or yards allowed, but because they have only returned 19 punts and forced 18 turnovers. Thats really low, meaning most drives against them are either ending in a score or a turnover on downs (missed FG or going for it on forth). Compare that to Bama with has force 44 punts and 21 turnovers this season. Since Auburn is only allowing 19 points a game, you have to think a lot of drives against them are ending on 4th down. This indicates to me that it's easy to move on them between the 20's but they tightened in the red zone. The key to victory then becomes running the ball in the red zone and making all of our field goal attempts.

 

[UAgrad93]

I'll add this too Randy. Their rushing average per game is blown out of porportion due to the fact they had over 300 yards against UT-Martin. They have no running game to speak of. The defense is overrated as well.

 

[Guest]

Dang, kickoff returns - the top in the SEC. Great. :roll: Our players must be extremely disciplined and not give them anything on this. I'm sure Saban has noticed they're tops in one of our weakest areas.

 

[TerryP]

Dang, kickoff returns - the top in the SEC. Great. :roll: Our players must be extremely disciplined and not give them anything on this. I'm sure Saban has noticed they're tops in one of our weakest areas.

Point to offer...

Trindan Holliday has more explosive capability than any kick returner in the SEC. Most won't like me saying that, but hands down, he's faster than Javy.

On the returns we had against LSU...one he returned for 31 yards after we kicked "from the back of our endzone" when JPW decided to show his ass.

Then, he had 21 and 11.

Even with the boost from JP, he averaged @ 20 yards per return.

The next best return guy we've faced this year was Eric Berry with UT. Remember the talk of how he was going to hurt us? He was getting about 15 yards a return before they realized "that won't work" and switched to a kid named Rogan, then to Creer. Average? By the time the final gun sounded they were right at 17 yards per return.

We had some trouble early on...but that group has been getting better and better and better as the season has progressed.

We could move to punt returns...I don't see the need...but quietly, as in without a lot of notice from the fan base, Fitz is having a hell of a year this year.

In other words...not a lot of worry about their return game.

 

[TerryP]

Much like LSU did, Auburn will get their yards against us. I don't see it being enough to win, but don't fool yourself that they won't be able to move the ball against us.

 

[Argo]

Much like LSU did, Auburn will get their yards against us. I don't see it being enough to win, but don't fool yourself that they won't be able to move the ball against Bama.

The question is, will they get them via handoff or by Burns making a play with his legs when the receivers are covered.

I don't think we've faced a true running threat at QB this year and that can be somewhat of a challenge. Not a challenge that I'm worried about, but enough of a challenge that UF may get a few ideas from watching the game film.

 

[TerryP]

Much like LSU did, Auburn will get their yards against us. I don't see it being enough to win, but don't fool yourself that they won't be able to move the ball against Bama.

The question is, will they get them via handoff or by Burns making a play with his legs when the receivers are covered.

I don't think we've faced a true running threat at QB this year and that can be somewhat of a challenge. Not a challenge that I'm worried about, but enough of a challenge that UF may get a few ideas from watching the game film.

Arkansas State's QB was the best we've faced so far and he didn't get much, if anything.

 

[UAgrad93]

I think CNS and staff have something in store for when Burns tries to bolt out of the pocket. I expect to see a spy or robber that has the lone assignment of mirroring his every move when he drops back to pass.