Swamptick said:
Man I really would be suprised if we made it to 9-3. Remember guys, CNS is a great coach but 9-3 is more than you should expect.
This is a first year coach and the players are having to learn an entirely new offense and a VERY complicated defense. 8-4 is much more realistic. I am a Bama fan through and through but I think most of us a being unreasonable. It is the only thing about being a Bama fan that worries me...what if we go 7-5? Will everyone want to get rid of Coach Saban? I won't. I think it is VERY possible that we go 7-5.
We play in the toughest league and have alot of rivals that hate us. The SEC is full of GOOD teams.
I beg to differ with you on that statement.
A month or so ago I was looking over history, Saban's and other SEC coaches. Those others included coaches like Spurrier, Richt, Miles, Fulmer, Tubbs, etc. I compared those against Saban in terms of 1st years results.
Here's the thing. Not only does Saban have a better winning percentage in the first year of taking a program over than any other coach in the SEC,
EVERY program he has taken over has improved by at least 3 wins in the first season he was at the helm.
If history repeats itself, which it tends to do, that would put us at 9 wins during the regular season.
I could break this down in further detail and look at the schedule in terms of the teams we face. But, take a few minutes and look for yourself. Look at LSU, as example. They won't have their O installed completely by game one. By the end of the season, I doubt it. UGA still answering questions...AU retooling, but in some critical areas.
The offensive system being installed for the Tide isn't that complicated...far less so than the one xCMS took three years to implement.
The defense will be a little harder, but that difficulty will be on the LB's more so than any other position. The DL will be changing technique, but most going back to something very similar to what they ran in HS. (technique wise, not scheme wise). DB and S's will be similar also. Biggest change will be the physical nature of the coverage on the DB's...but, in a similar scheme they did pretty well adjusting to teams like Tx. Tech.
9-3 is realistic. I'm almost tempted to go as far as stating our toughest game next season won't be against an SEC team.