Trickle Down Economics and Pigskin Prognostication Week 12: Alabama at Auburn
November 24, 2009
A Look Back
Bama didn’t hit the 63 point mark against UTC like I predicted, but it wasn’t for lack of ability. The first half went almost exactly as predicted. Ingram didn’t quite hit the 100 yard mark in the first quarter, but he did cross it with 12 minutes left in the second. Bama didn’t just shut it down against the Mocs, they completely turned it off, and I don’t care if you are playing the East Popcorn State Institute for Blind Nuns, holding a team to less than 100 yards of offense is impressive. Even against FCS teams, that is rarely done.
The Game
Not much has to be said about the Iron Bowl – or with the venue moved to Auburn, the “Barnyard Brawl,” if you will. Brother against brother, neighbor against neighbor, pick your cliché, this is the week that gives bragging rights for the next 365 days…unless you are the typical auburnite who, embarrassed by the 36-0 pasting from last season, is still trying to pretend that Saban is not at Alabama. The typical Auburnite is still living off of the Shula streak. Attention Auburn fans…the streak ended. You are living in the past.
The old saying is “throw out the record books,” however that really does not apply to the Iron Bowl. Historically, the better team has won. There have been a few upsets – but very few. Most of them have been between teams that were relatively evenly matched, and often there were extenuating circumstances surrounding the upset.
The contrast that exists between Alabama and Auburn Internet message boards is striking. While Alabama fans discuss the game and the challenge, while looking ahead somewhat, Auburn fan’s posts wreak of hatred and even EVIL. Some Auburn fans on the Scout site have been discussion methods that they feel should be implemented to give them the best chance of winning the game, including: spearing Arenas on punt returns before the ball arrives, with the intention of injuring him (living with the 15 yard penalty and using a reserve player so the resulting ejection will not hurt), intentionally late-hitting McElroy to hurt him, chop blocking Terrence Cody in an effort to blow out his knee, and spearing Julio Jones. They Auburn fan base is an ugly amalgamation of low class, low rent trash, and proud graduates who don’t say much. To be honest, I can’t see how a decent person can hold allegiance to Auburn, given the significant amount of evil surrounding their program. I don’t mean the redneck faction, all SEC schools have a mullet wearing, trailer dwelling sector. What I mean is the blatant evil, like those espousing injury of Alabama players. I mean the history of boosters passing bribes in an effort to damage other programs. I mean the meddling and unadulterated EVIL that exists on the plains.
I grew up in the pre-internet era. I grew up loving Alabama and wishing Auburn well 10 games per season, plus their bowl game. Alabama was my state school, and Auburn was a school in my state. While I wanted to beat Auburn (along with everyone else on our schedule), Tennessee was the real rival. They were the fierce foe. Even if Auburn won, I could wish them well in the post-season. The action of their fans in recent years has made that kind of appreciation and respect impossible. I imagine that years of playing second fiddle to Alabama has distilled their competitive juices into a festering pool of congealed hatred. When Alabama was under the NCAA gun, Auburn fans openly called for the death penalty – not out of any sense of justice, but out of a malignant hatred that has taken control of their fan base, and turned a significant portion of them into lunatics and hate-mongering malfeasants, on a misguided jihad against Alabama. They look like fools, and act far worse…and their hatred blinds them to their own darkness.
I used to respect them.
No more.
Now I pity them, but I don’t take pity on them…and neither should Alabama.
Recruiting
All season I have listened to the Auburn nation talk about how little talent there is on their team. We have heard how Tuberville went duck hunting and didn’t recruit his last few years. Lets take a look at the recruiting comparison between Alabama and Auburn. As always, the comparative methodology is: star rating per Scout, rank per Scout, rank per Rivals, composite rank.
2005 UA (2.83) 16/18/17.0 – AU (3.05) 21/13/17
2006 UA (3.30) 18/11/14.5 – AU (3.40) 9/10/1.5
2007 UA (3.08) 22/10/16.0 – AU (3.30) 6/7/6.5
2008 UA (3.66) 01/01/01.0 – AU (2.93) 18/20/18
2009 UA (3.67) 02/01/01.5 – AU (3.07) 16/19/17.5
According to Auburn outlets, Chizik immediately improved the Auburn recruiting, however under comparative analysis, that is not evidenced. Auburn’s ranking in 2009 was within the average of their previous 4 classes, and their current 2010 commitment list falls into that range as well.
Trickle Down Category
Auburn has always done well taking recruits that Alabama didn’t heavily pursue. Often, these were great players who wanted to stay in-state, but Alabama didn’t have a spot for them. Still, Auburn is a marquis program, so “trickle down” does not really apply.
The Coaches
This year the Iron Bowl is a day early, being played on the Friday following Thanksgiving. Auburn comes into the Iron Bowl following an off week, while Alabama had a game against UTC that was over by halftime. Both teams should be well rested, however the shortened week does give Auburn a slight advantage. While Auburn had a few extra days to prepare for Alabama, you can be reasonably certain that the Crimson Tide coaches were looking at Auburn film last week. Auburns last game was a disheartening loss to rival Georgia – one in which they held a lead in the third quarter, only to see their defense collapse.
Auburn fired one of the winningest coaches in the history of their program, and hired a coach who had been 5-19 over the previous 2 seasons at Iowa State…and make no mistake, Tuberville was fired. Auburn fans who say otherwise are delusional liars. You don’t pay a five million dollar buyout to a coach who voluntarily resigns.
Iowa state fans were happy to see Chizik leave. His teams were poorly coached – period. While Chizik has done a decent job at Auburn thus far, there are serious question marks. Many are questioning whether or not the hire of former Duke head coach Ted Roof as defensive coordinator was a good one. While at Duke, Roof’s team gave up over 40 points 16 times in 4 seasons, and over 50 points on 4 occasions. Roof is not regarded as a defensive mastermind.
Alabama head coach Nick Saban is widely regarded as one of the best coaches in America. His teams play with an intensity that is difficult to match, and they are well prepared. From top to bottom, his staff is driven and top notch. While Chizik may eventually be a good coach, there is absolutely no way to compare these two coaches and their respective staff members, and keep a straight face.
Alabama Offense v/s Auburn Defense
For all of the criticism of Alabama’s offense this season, the 2009 offensive unit is out-rushing the 2008 unit by 40 yards per game (.8 per attempt), out passing the 2008 unit by 20 yards per game (.3 per catch), and out scoring the 2008 unit by 2.2ppg.
Meanwhile, the Auburn defense is giving up 31 more yards per game on the ground, 10 more yards through the air, and 9 more points per game.
In the Trenches
The Alabama offensive line has continued to improve throughout the season. Left guard Mike Johnson is having the kind of season expected of an All-SEC level player, and RG Barret Jones is playing like a veteran. Center William Vlachos is living up to the potential that many saw in him during the preseason, and tackles Drew Davis and James Carpenter are both playing solidly. Alabama has rushed for almost 300 more yards (2482), than 11 games last season (2184). In fact, Alabama is just 101 yards away from breaking last season’s total rushing yardage. Through 11 games last year, the Alabama OL had surrendered 15 sacks on 261 pass attempts – an average of 1 sack per 17.4 attempts. This season , the OL has given up 11 sacks on 284 attempts – an average of 1 sack per 25.81 attempts, or 1 per game.
The Auburn DL does not bring back memories of the Auburn lines of old. Senior defensive end Antonio Coleman is their best lineman and 6th leading tackler. At 6′1/261, Coleman is a very good player and leads the teams in tackles for loss with 13.5, and sacks with 7.5. Opposite Coleman is Michael Goggans, at 6′3/264. Goggans is not as athletic as Coleman, and ranks 13th on the team in tackles. The tackle spots are manned by Mike Blanc and Jack Ricks, both of whom are on the small side for defensive tackles. Blanc and Ricks are active, combining for 71 stops, however against run oriented teams with physical lines, their production drops significantly.
While both Goggans and Coleman are SEC caliber, Auburn lacks depth at end. Against athletic offensive lineman, they will and do get tired out by late in the game, and opposing offenses are able more productive late. UGA had just 7 points at halftime, but was able to score 24 second half points against the tired tiger defense.
Alabama RB v/s Auburn LB
Ben Tate gave an interview this past week where he stated that he was unquestionably the best back in the SEC. If Tate were at Alabama, he would be unquestionably no better than the 3rd best back on the roster. While Auburn fans are want to detract from Ingram’s accomplishments, his productivity this season has been better than even that of the back he is often compared to – Emmit Smith. Backing up Ingram is freshman phenom Trent Richardson – a break-out game waiting to happen. Both backs have the ability to abuse would-be tacklers, and to score from anywhere on the field. Auburn has had problems tacking this season, and the tigers have given up big runs to multiple players. UK had two players rush for over 100 yards against Auburn, and both had explosive runs. Arkansas’ Michael Smith dropped 145 on the Tigers, including a 33 yard burst. Noel Divine from WVU had a 71 yard run in a losing effort against the wareagletigerplainsmen of Pat Dye field in the jungle at Jordan Hare. The trend is obvious. Good runners get good yards against the Auburn defense – and Alabama has very, very good runners.
The Auburn linebackers are an active group. Josh Bynes is the leading tackler on the team, with 84 stops, while Craig Stevens is just one behind at 83. JC Transfer Eltoro Freeman has come on with 30, however his status is questionable going into the Iron Bowl. Freeman has not practiced since suffereing a concussion against UGA, and is nursing an ankle sprain. Freeman was part of the 2007 Mississippi Gulf Coast Community College team that won the national championship, playing alongside Alabama noseguard Terrence Cody. As with the DL positions, depth and experience is precariously thin in the Auburn LB corp. The starting LB’s are in the 220-240 range, however the backups are all under 220. Going against a group of Alabama runners that are extremely physical does not bode well for the Tigers, and if Freeman cannot go, his likely replacement is a 215 pound sophomore.
Alabama Receivers v/s Auburn Secondary
Alabama’s receiving corp is as talented as any in the nation. The biggest issue has simply been execution. When McElroy is on target, multiple Alabama receivers have proven that they can gain significant yards after catch. The Alabama receivers have also shown the ability to get separation and play the ball. After struggling for a number of weeks, the Alabama passing game appears to be back on track.
Auburn’s secondary is a mixed bag. Walt McFadden is a very good corner with 4 picks, and Neiko Thorpe is the team’s 3rd leading tackler. At times the Auburn secondary has appeared solid, while at others they have been absolutely roasted. Better offensive teams have not needed to resort to a pure passing attack, as Auburn’s inability to stop the run has allowed passing oriented teams such as Arkansas, to gain chunks of yardage without throwing. If there is a strong spot on the AU defense, it is their pass defense, however Auburn is ranked just 9th in the SEC in pass defense.
Alabama Quarterback
Greg McElroy can pick a defense apart when given protection. Auburn ranks 7th in the SEC in sacks, however they do have a fast defensive front. It is key for Greg to play safe early. In the first half he may be pressured a bit, however as the game goes the Auburn defense will wear down. At that point McElroy will have plenty of chances for big plays. He can’t try to force something early.
Alabama offense Final
Auburn’s defense is worse than last year.
Alabama’s offense is better than last year.
Does that mean Alabama will score more than 36? Auburn has some talent at select defensive spots, but not a lot of quality depth, so don’t discount the possibility.
Auburn Offense v/s Alabama Defense
Last year, Auburn fans were adamant that the new “spread eagle” offense (brought in by first year offensive coordinator Tony Franklin) would rule the SEC. Six games into the season, Franklin was fired by Tommy Tuberville, and Auburn abandoned the spread. Now Auburn has a new variation on an old theme, in first year offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn. The former high school coach is seen by many as an innovator, and the success of the Auburn offense in 2009 is hard to argue with if all you look at is the surface, but true to the Trickle Down Tradition, we will dig deeper. What we find is that rather than identify opponent’s weaknesses and attacking them, Auburn’s offense is predicated on running high number of plays and hoping to break a big one. To this end, Auburn uses a great deal of misdirection, forcing defenses to play fundamentally sound. When defenses over pursue, or fail to play proper assignment football, Auburn’s offense is able to take advantage of it. In this way, Auburn’s offense is not unlike Georgia Tech’s. Where Auburn is different, is that Tech is more power oriented, while Auburn is more “smoke and mirrors.”
All that said, I have long held that a significant piece of Auburn’s offensive plan is based on what Utah did against Alabama in the Sugar Bowl. The Utes came out and ran a very up-tempo offense – not just a no huddle, but a pedal to the metal “hit them before they can make adjustments” approach. It is my opinion that this has been Auburn’s plan from day one…craft an offense to beat a Nick Saban defense. The flaw in this logic is that in attacking Alabama like that, Utah was breaking from their normative approach. While they often went no-huddle, they had never abandoned the run and game-planned around running 80 plays per game. Auburn has – and Saban has film. There are also significant differences between the physically and emotionally wounded Crimson Tide team Utah faced, and what Auburn faces this Friday.
In the Trenches
Auburn is currently ranked 11th nationally in rushing offense (one spot behind Alabama), with 219.55 yards per outing, and the OL has allowed just 15 sacks on 304 passing attempts – a respectable average of one sack per 20 attempts.
The Auburn OL is flanked by tackles McCain and Ziemba. A junior, Ziemba is their best offensive lineman. McCain, a senior, is slightly smaller than his counterpart, and not nearly the caliber. Isom is a bit undersized at guard, and Mike Berry has developed into a solid player on the front. Junior center Ryan Pugh is talented, but will have his hands full with Terrence Cody.
Alabama’s defensive front is arguably the best in college football. Against the run, Alabama is currently ranked #2 in the country, averaging just 70.55 yards per game given up on the ground. Alabama’s defense is predicated on controlling the point of attack with its down lineman, allowing the linebackers to make plays. If Auburn’s OL is unable to move beyond the Alabama front, and the linebackers are free to pursue and play assignment football, it will be a long day for the Tigers.
Auburn RB v/s Alabama LB
Ben Tate is a very good running back, however it might have been wise of him to have refrained from making his “best back in the SEC” comments, a week before playing against a defense that has not allowed an opposing running back to break 100 yards since Darren McFadden was at Arkansas. In fact, Auburn’s own Brad Lester was the last 100 yard rusher allowed, when he gained exactly 100 on November 24th, 2007.
Tate is a deceptively strong runner, with good speed. He is currently 3rd in the SEC in rushing, behind Mark Ingram and Anthony Dixon. Tate is not the punishing runner of Ingram, and his average per game is 18 yards less, while he has 20 more attempts than Ingram on the season.
Auburn’s freshman running back Onterio McCalebb has 524 yards on the season and a slightly better per carry than Tate. He is a change of pace runner – at 165 pounds, he is more of a scat-back than the much larger Tate.
Alabama’s linebacking corp is one of the best in America, and likely was THE best, before losing Hightower. Tate will likely gain some yards early, but once the Alabama defense settles in, he will find running difficult. Auburn is likely to use misdirection with McCalebb on the corners – much like MSU did on their first few drives, and they will probably have some success with it. Like against MSU, Alabama will make adjustments and force Auburn out of their comfort zone.
Auburn WR v/s Alabama secondary
I had to chuckle when reading an Auburn fan’s comment that the Alabama secondary is not very good. Alabama is currently ranked #1 in the nation in passing efficiency defense, and #5 is passing defense. The Crimson Tide has intercepted 18 passes on the season, tied with Florida for tops in the SEC. Comments like that of the Auburn fan are based on the fact that Alabama’s secondary plays a lot of man coverage, and as a result they give up a big play now and then. On the whole, the unit is so talented that big plays have become an increasingly rare occurrence. The best quarterbacks in the SEC have had their worst days against the Alabama secondary. Arkansas gunslinger Ryan Mallet was 24 of 37 against Auburn, for 274 yards, 2 TD’s and 1 interception. Against Alabama, Mallet was 12 of 35, for 160 yards, 1 TD/ 1 INT.
Against better teams, Auburn has had some problems with passing. While their passing offense is ranked 3rd in the conference (one spot and 15 yards ahead of Alabama), the Tigers have not fared well against good passing defenses. Against UK, the Tigers were just 11 of 25, for 95 yards, and LSU held Auburn to 11 of 20 for 81 yards.
The Auburn receiving corp is is lead by Darvin Adams 44 catches for 717 tards. Adams is a tall target at 6′3, and has good speed. The dropp-off behind Adams is considerable. Fannin has 35 receptions for 383 yards, while Terrell Zachery has caught 23 passes for 468. Of Auburn’s 22 passing touchdowns, those three receivers account for 17. Tight ends have 4 of the remaining 5, and Kodi Burns had the 5th.
Auburn Quarterbacks
Chris Todd is “the man” in the Auburn offense. Todd averages around 200 yards per game, and has an efficiency rating of 147.12. Todd is throwing around 60% completions, but he can be rattled. Alabama will bring blitzes from everywhere. An off week will help him with preparations. Mike Tyson once said “everybody has a plan until they get hit.”
Auburn on offense Final
There is no doubt that Auburn has show significant improvement in 2009. The AU offense ranks 3rd in both scoring and total offense, a complete opposite of the train wreck from last season. Still, the AU offense has sputtered against good teams. LSU held Auburn to just 10 points, and Kentucky held the Tigers to 14. The 23 and 24 points scored in losing efforts to Arkansas and UGA sound like a fair amount, however both totals rank among the least given up by those teams in conference play.
The Alabama defense will be the BEST that Auburn has played. I have no doubt about Auburn’s plan. For the tigers, this is a one game season with nothing to lose. The Tigers will attempt to use misdirection and trick plays to catch the Alabama defense out of position, and they may be successful once or twice. It would not surprise me if Auburn jumps out to a lead – much as they did against UGA. Ultimately, Alabama’s defense is dogged and relentless, and it is doubtful that Auburn will have any consistent success.
Special Teams
Alabama MUST improve kickoff coverage. Against great return teams, it could cause a loss. As bad as Alabama is, Auburn is not much better. Alabama is significantly better at kickoff returns, so even with Alabama’s deficiencies, the Crimson Tide is better in this arena.
In punt returns, there is no comparison. While the yardage surrendered is similar, Alabama’s punting is better, and returns are much better.
While Auburn’s Byrum is a solid kicker, Leigh Tiffin is among the nation’s best.
Keys and Intangibles
Auburn ranks 10th in the conference in run defense, 12th in scoring defense, and 10th in time of possession. That does not bode well when playing a team who’s identity lies in its goal of imposing its will on its opponent each and every plan, in order to make them quit. Alabama leads the league in time of possession at almost 33:00 per game. Auburn averages 28:26. With Auburn’s high tempo offense, and Alabama’s defense, that margin could grow this week. The problem with running a high tempo no-huddle offense, is that you have the ability to go 3 & out much faster.
Auburn fans are already whining about officiating and favoritism, but that is just delusional conjecture. The reality is, they have an undisciplined team that ranks 12th in the league in opponent’s penalties, and 11th in committing them. Based upon their team’s undisciplined play, they should expect there to be a discrepancy in penalties called this game. No conspiracy is needed.
Auburn allows over 61% conversion on 4th down, while Alabama converts 66.7% – Alabama allows under 40%, while Auburn converts 30.8%.
Auburn is 8th in turnover margin – Alabama is 1st.
While Alabama has struggled at times in the red zone, Auburn is 12th in the league in red zone defense.
Auburn is second in the league in red zone offense, however Alabama has the #1 red zone defense.
The Bottom Line
There is little question about Alabama’s ability to move the ball against Auburn. Everyone has moved the ball against Auburn. The tiger’s yield a lot of rushing yards, and are only fair at defending the pass. Defensively, the tigers are tailor made for Alabama to abuse.
The question becomes “what of the Auburn offense?” At times impressive, at times confusing, that AU offense has been described as both brilliant and highschool-ish.
Just like MSU, Auburn will have some success early, sending the home crowd into a frenzy – but Alabama will adjust. A couple of turnovers and this could get uglier – but it will be ugly enough.
Alabama 42
Auburn 13
Recruiting: Chizik Has a Plan.
February 18, 2009
By Terry Pellman
If there were any doubts among you that the rivalry between Alabama and Auburn is a action – reaction scenario those suspicions can be laid to rest.
After meeting with a group of reporters this week newly hired Gene Chizik has announced he “has a plan for retaking the state of Alabama” in terms of recruiting.
I realize, this begs the question if Auburn ever had the state of Alabama in the first place, but we’ll leave that question for a later date.
Over the past two National Signing days the Auburn program has found itself virtually locked out of the recruits that both the Auburn and Alabama staff had interest in signing. Overall, both schools have heavily recruited over 30 players in common with Alabama coming out on the winning end in all but a scarce few.
In the 2009 class, Alabama secured signatures from 8 of the top 10 players in state and 10 of the top 15 which included all of the top 5. That followed the success Bama had in 2008 as well where the Tide signed 11 of the top 15 including the top 5 in the state.
Conversely, Auburn found itself shut out of the top 10 in 2009 and only able to secure 2 of the top 15. In 2008 they set the precedent for ‘09 by finding themselves left out of the top 10 and signing 1 of the top 15.
To summarize, that’s 21 of the top 30 players in the state of Alabama headed to Tuscaloosa versus 3 of the top 30 headed to the “Plains of Auburn.”
It’s an interesting approach Chizik has decided to use. In fact, if we take the latest very successful team Auburn has fielded, the undefeated 2004 Tigers, it’s a stark contrast to what has been their recipe for success.
“You’ve got to have a starting point and a home base, and this state will be it,” Chizik said. “After that, we’ll move outside the state.”
Curtis Luper, Auburn’s new recruiting coordinator, said he’s approaching this in state battle with thoughts of his days in the Army where he served as an Air-Traffic Controller.
“One of the basic elements of the military is that you protect your border,” said Luper, a former air traffic controller. “So we got to protect our border. We’re going to start right here in this state.”
Luper, Auburn’s running backs coach/recruiting coordinator, said he has divided the state into seven quadrants, each of which will be assigned its own coach. Factor in Gene Chizik, and the Tigers will have eight different coaches in players homes across the state.
Compare that to the past staff under the leadership of Tommy Tuberville who had half of that number assigned to the state of Alabama.
Luper said he will assign two coaches to the South, two to the North, one each in greater Birmingham, Huntsville and Montgomery and one in the Lee County region, which includes Columbus and LaGrange, Ga.
This move definitely represents a different way of thinking than what has been the mantra on the Plains.
In a matter of a couple of weeks we’ve seen their program move from “recruiting rankings don’t mean anything, we don’t pay attention to them” to a stance now that includes “”We need the No. 1 recruiting class in the country… That’s what I want. That’s my goal” according to Luper.
It seems possible he’s considering his days in the Army as an Air-Traffic Controller even more prominently that one might suspect considering the amount of travel time this is will force on the Auburn staff.
There will be five coaches working Georgia and four on the beat in Florida; most will have multiple assignments.
In what can be described as a more concentrated effort in one state can equally be described as spreading a staff very thinly around the Southeast.
By drawing a comparison to their last successful season, 2004, what bears the most attention is it was a roster than was mostly filled with out of state talent from Georgia, Florida, and the other surrounding states.
For every Carnell Williams you found from the state of Alabama, you found a Jason Campbell from Mississippi and a Ronnie Brown from Georgia.
In fact, looking over their entire scholarshipped roster, 2 of every 3 players came from out of state.
The Stark Contrast:
The efforts of the Alabama staff for their 2010 class are quite the opposite.
The staff, as evidenced by the number of offers in state and out of state, are being very selective in which in state players receive offers and are pursuing more prospects from out of state. They are in a position where they are seeking to “plug-holes” in their line-up with some of the Southeast’s elite.
Will Changes Pay Dividends?
With their senior seasons still left to be played, how the states’ players find themselves in terms of talent is somewhat left to be seen. But, there has been enough displays of their talents to get a good feel on how they’ll produce in their senior seasons.
Among the top prospects like B.J. Chitty, C.J. Moseley, Solomon Patton, Craig Sanders and Jarrick Williams the trend looks to be continuing. Alabama is the team to beat.
Rest assured, this new approach for Auburn will pay dividends for some of the in-state kids who wish to remain in state.
Auburn or Troy?
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