Trickle Down Economics and Pigskin Prognostication BCS Title Game Edition
January 6, 2010
The Game
This is THE game. For both Alabama and Texas, everything prior to this week has been a warm-up. Forget about rivalry games or close calls – this is a one week season and the winner takes all. There is no second place – only a loser.
The 2010 BCS Title Game has all the thrills and intrigue you could possibly want. In one corner is Nick Saban…the Nicktator. A man who makes assistant coaches and NFL linemen into silly putty, either molding them into something useful, or causing them to fall apart. Saban is a championship coach with a championship resume, heading up a great coaching staff. On the other sideline is Mack Brown, another championship coach, heading up a coaching staff with former Saban progenies.
It just does not get any bigger than this. Texas and Alabama – two of the most storied programs in all of football, playing for the ultimate crown.
I want to preface this article by saying that bowl games are a different animal than regular season games. Comparing team tendencies and trends, along with statistics, is much more difficult. A month off is enough time for a coaching staff to make changes to schemes and defenses get extra prep time. It is a one game season, and in some ways it is more like the first game of the season, than the last game played.
Recruiting
The University of Texas is located in one of the most fertile recruiting grounds in the country. As both a storied program with great tradition, and the flagship program in the state, Texas is a recruiting powerhouse.
Alabama has recruited very well under Nick Saban, and there is just something about the Crimson uniform that elevates the level of play of those who wear it. Love him or hate him, Bill Curry was aware of this, and has often comment on how a good player will elevate his level of play to greatness when playing for Alabama.
As usual, the recruiting comparison formula is: star rating by Scout, Scout rank, Rivals rank, and composite.
2005 UA (2.83) 16/18/17.0 – UT (3.79) 13/20/16.5
2006 UA (3.30) 18/11/14.5 – UT (3.72) 03/05/04
2007 UA (3.08) 22/10/16.0 – UT (3.94) 03/05/04
2008 UA (3.66) 01/01/01.0 – UT (3.70) 16/14/15
2009 UA (3.67) 02/01/01.5 – UT (3.75) 07/05/06
In each of the past five recruiting classes, Texas has signed a higher star rating average. The lowest star average from Texas is higher than the highest from Alabama over the same period. Like Florida, that is slightly deceiving. Alabama signed more players during the 2008 and 2009 classes; for example, in 2009 Texas signed 20, while Alabama signed 27. Alabama’s top 20 players were ranked higher than Texas on a per-player average.
Where the real difference exists, is in the 2006 and 2007 classes. In 2007, Texas’ 3.94 rating was on 25 signees, with 20 players rated four stars or higher. As with all things, raw numbers are not all-powerful. Florida signed 23 players in that bracket in 2007, and anyone who watched the SEC title game saw that raw numbers don’t equate to domination. Both teams are well stocked with top level talent, and differences of .5 or less are nominal.
Trickle Down Category
Neither team really falls into the Trickle Down talent category. Alabama has a few players that were lightly recruited – such as Javier Arenas, but by and large these teams are loaded with major recruits.
Alabama Offense v/s Texas Defense
Alabama’s offense has been a riddle wrapped inside of an enigma in 2009. At times the Alabama offense seemed unstoppable, while at other times it has sputtered. Against defensive powerhouse Florida, Alabama ran and passed almost at will, rolling up 500 yards of offense. As lop-sided as the final score was, it was not indicative of the dominance of the Alabama offense. With an offense featuring Heisman Trophy winning RB Mark Ingram, it is natural to assume that Bama is a pure power running team, however that assumption is a mistake. While Alabama does run a physical, power offense, it is very diverse. The Bama offense contains elements of the spread, and frequently lines up in the pistol formation. On the season, the Crimson Tide offense has rushed for just 300 more yards than it has passed for.
The Texas defense is very, very good. Texas ranks first in the nation against the run, allowing just 62.15 yards per game. The Texas passing defense is good, but having faced offenses from the spread-happy Big 12, its ranking has taken a hit.
In the Trenches
The Alabama offensive line has been a pleasant surprise through the 2009 season. While lacking the “road-grader” Andre Smith, James Carpenter has filled in nicely. While Carpenter has been beaten a few times off the edge, he has generally been a solid pass blocker, and outstanding run blocker. Mike Johnson is as good as it gets at guard, and Center William Vlachos has been a physical presence in the middle. Redshirt frosh Barrett Jones has played well as the season progressed. Drew Davis has had a solid season while quietly anchoring the right side of the line.
Sometimes when you hear comments from mainstream media, you wonder if they actually watch football. A sports writer commented last week that Alabama’s offensive line was “not athletic.” Alabama’s success in the trenches this season has been a result of the athleticism of the OL. The Bama OL is not a massive unit,averaging around 300 pounds per man. What they are, is athletic. The Bama linemen are nimble enough to pull and get out in space to lead on sweeps, or scrape across DL to pick up linebackers.
The Texas DL is headed up by a pair of very good defensive ends in 6′4/255 SR Sergio Kindle, and 6′3/260 JR Sam Acho. Kindle is a hybrid LB/DE, and was a Butkus finalist this season. In fact, Kindle was so effective at DE that he was a finalist for the Hendricks award as well – the first time a player has been nominated for both awards in the same season. A first team All-American, Kindle will be a challenge for Carpenter. Kindle is not the best “pure” LB or DE Alabama has faced this season, but he is a special player. Acho is very good, but does not get the same press as his teammate. He has a nose for the football, and always seems to be around the play.
The Texas DT’s are more blue collar. Lamar Houston and Ben Alexander look to start in the middle of the Texas DL. Both tackles are in the 300 pound range, with Houston being the more athletic.
Texas has speed off the ends and size in the middle. The Texas line is similar to Florida. The question for me is what approach Alabama will take in blocking them. On running plays, I expect to see zone blocking, with Davis and Carpenter using the momentum of the DE to create a crease off tackle. If this is not effective, Alabama will probably shift to the unbalanced lines that were so effective against the Gators.
Alabama RB v/s Texas LB
Much of the commentary from rival camps following Mark Ingram winning the Heisman has been negative. Texas fans will quickly rattle off a litany of RB’s that the horns have shut down, who (in their minds) are better than Ingram. This Thursday they will find out what makes the sophomore RB so effective. A powerful runner with a low center of gravity, Ingram is not short on speed. The young RB possesses a rare combination of vision, leaping ability, speed, and strength. His detractors have commented that (backup RB) Trent Richardson may be better than Ingram, but that argument speaks more to the depth and quality of the Alabama RB corp, than to weakness on Ingram’s part. Richardson could end up with a Heisman of his own before all is said and done.
While the Texas DL is fantastic, the back seven (while still good) are a notch down.
The Texas linebacking corp consists of Keenan Robinson (will), Rodd Muckelroy (mike), and Emmanuel Acho at strong side LB. Robinson is a first year started with good size at 6′3/232 and is comparable to Alabama’s Sam LB Cory Reamer with less experience.
Muckelroy is a very good linebacker, with 52 tackles and 44 assists on the season. Muckelroy has similar size to Robinson, and has recorded 11 tackles for loss.
Acho has fewer tackles on the season than Muckelroy, but has still be very productive. His 9 sacks on the season are the biggest concern.
Alabama Receivers v/s Texas Secondary
This is a matchup to watch. Texas’ game plan is predictable. The Long Horns will focus on stopping the run, and tying to get pressure on McElroy with their front 4. The Alabama offensive unit can expect a combination of stunts and run-blitzes. The result will be that the Texas secondary will be required to play on an island for most of the game. The Texas defensive unit has 24 interceptions on the year, but seven of those were against UTEP and Nebraska, who went a combined 14 of 43 for 83 yards, with 7 picks and 0 TD’s. The longhorns also feasted on Oklahoma State’s propensity for throwing to the wrong colored jersey, registering 4 picks against the Cowboys.
More talented offenses with vertical passing games have had more success against Texas. Lacking a legitimate running threat, Kansas managed 25/39 for 256 with 1 int. Texas Tech, OU, and TAMU all managed to complete a high number of passes against Texas.
The Texas secondary from the corners to the safeties are undersized. While Texas proponents have commented that the Alabama safeties are more build for run stopping than covering speedy receivers, the opposite could be said about the Texas secondary. Julio Jones will be a serious challenge for Texas defenders, and Colin Peek will be difficult for the horn secondary to handle.
If the Alabama runners get on the second level and are in one on one situations with members of the Texas secondary, “sure tackling” may not be enough.
Alabama Quarterback
Undefeated. He is not always perfect…but his record is.
McElroy does not get the press of a Tebow or McCoy, but the first year starter has come a long way. Against Florida, McElroy was fantastic, scanning the field and finding the open receivers – making perfect throws, and executing key runs. Against the best defense Alabama faced all season, McElroy was at his best. As long as the Junior signal caller doesn’t revert back to his mid-season slump, Bama is in good hands.
Alabama on Offense Final
Alabama will do what they do on offense. The Crimson Tide is a ball control offense with big play capability. Ingram led the nation in rushes of 30 yards or more, and the receiving corp of Maze, Jones, and Hanks are more than capable of going deep.
Texas has a talented defense, but no more so than Florida, and position by position, Ole Miss may actually have a better starting 11. That said, Alabama struggled at times against Ole Miss, South Carolina, Tennessee, and others. The month off makes it difficult to predict.
While Alabama has faced defenses like Texas brings before, Texas has not faced an offense with the balance that Bama brings to the table. Only Oklahoma and Texas Tech rank higher than Alabama in total offense among teams on Texas’ schedule, however Alabama has a higher average per play than OU, and Tech’s offense is hardly balanced. For Texas’ defense, 3rd and long is key. Texas and Alabama are 2-3 in conversion percentage defense. For Alabama’s, the best way to control the Texas offense is to keep them on the sideline.
Texas Offense v/s Alabama Defense
Texas is a spread passing offense, heavy on skill players. Jordan Shipley is quite probably the best receiver Alabama has faced since since going against A.J. Green at Georgia last season. The Texas rushing attack has accounted for 1985 of their 5621 total yards in the 2009 season, with the bulk coming against run defenses ranked in the bottom half of the FBS. Against the highest rated rush defenses Texas has faced in OU and Nebraska, the horns ran for 142 and 18 yards. There is not a good comparison to make where Texas has played a defense similar to Alabama. Schematically Nebraska is very different.
In the Trenches
From Right to Left, Hix, Huey, and Hall make up the Tackle, Guard, and Center. Hix and Huey are massive 320 pound bodies, while Hall is a big center at 295. The line is finished out by Tanner and All-Madden name candidate Adam Ulatoski. Ulatoski is the ‘horns’ best OL, earning second team AA honors from The Sporting News.
Texas is the polar opposite of Alabama offensively. Whereas Alabama runs to set up the play-action passing game, Texas uses a ball control passing game to set up the run. It wouldn’t completely surprise me to see the longhorns take the Utah approach and abandon the running game before trying. The leading rusher on the team has just 513 yards, and the #2 guy is quarterback Colt McCoy. For Texas to attempt a run against an Alabama defense allowing 77 yards per game may amount to nothing more than a wasted down. The Texas OL has struggled at times this season, and their forte’ is pass protection…that said…
The Longhorns have given up 30 sacks on the season, twice as many as Alabama in just 160 more pass attempts.
The match-up in the middle with Terrence Cody is always interesting to watch, but this week it is even more interesting. If Texas abandons the run, Marcel Dareus will see the field early and often. Dareus may not be Suh, but he is fast, physical, and talented, with the ability to make pass blockers look foolish. Regardless of personnel, Alabama is likely to use some variation of a four man front for most of the game in order to pressure McCoy. Alternately, McCoy will see blitzes that they probably don’t have names for.
Texas RB v/s Alabama LB
The leading rusher for Texas has a total of 102 attempts on the season. Colt McCoy has 128 listed rushing attempts, however 29 sacks are included in that count.
Leading rusher Tre’ Newton is a redshirt freshman from McElroy’s own Southlake Carroll high school. At 6′0/200, Newton has average size and above average speed, and was a member of the Southlake Carroll track team. Newton comes from a family of athletes, with both his father and uncle being former NFL players.
Alabama’s Rolando McClain is simply the best LB in college football. With young players having grown up over the course of the season, and Cory Reamer playing very well, the Crimson Tide linebacking corp will be the best Texas has faced.
Texas Receivers v/s Alabama Secondary
If I were ranking the “things to watch” in this game, it would be difficult to list 1-2-3. As it is, 1a would be how the Texas OL handles the pass rush. 1B would be how the Texas secondary holds up against the bigger skill players from Alabama. 1C would have to be how well the Alabama secondary covers the Texas receivers, and specifically Jordan Shipley. Shipley is not simply the leading receiver for Texas, he is the leading receiver by a Texas mile. With 106 receptions totally 1363 yards, Shipley has more than double the receptions of the second leading receiver – and almost 3 times the yardage. Shipley is not exactly a burner – he is just a great athlete, with sure hands and the ability to make clutch receptions. The tandem of McCoy and Shipley is just one of those dynamic duo’s that come along in the college game. At 6′/190 Shipley is not exactly big, but he has been durable. He will have to be against an Alabama secondary that punishes receivers.
Texas Quarterback
Colt McCoy is the winningest QB in the history of Texas, and that is saying something. McCoy is not big and he doesn’t possess blazing speed. His arm is not the strongest on the planet, and he has been known to get rattled – but he is a winner. The list of awards and recognition that McCoy has received is almost endless, with more being added every week. Alabama will test his ability to read defenses, and the 1D to watch will be the chess match between McCoy calling the Texas offense, and McClain calling Alabama’s defense.
Texas on offense Final
Alabama has seen defenses like Texas will bring, but the Alabama defense will be something new for the longhorn offense. With Alabama switching fronts, alignments, and blitzing from all over, McCoy will have to make reads faster than he ever has. Texas will have some offensive success early, but in my opinion the issue is not how well Texas protects the quarterback – it is how well the Texas offense holds up against the physical play of the Alabama defense. Alabama plays clean, but the physical beating the Tide defense applies is something that cannot be simulated in practice. Opposing sidelines often resemble MASH units by the third quarter. While Texas fans are right to say that Alabama’s defense is built to stop the run, they over look the success the Tide has had against passing teams, and discount the effect that getting pounded every snap can have on finesse offenses. Opponents drop a lot of passes against Alabama for a reason, and it’s not because they were eating buttered popcorn on the sideline.
Texas will be hit in the mouth by Alabama’s defense. The question is: how will they respond?
Special Teams
Both Alabama and Texas feature potent return teams. Texas is 3rd in the nation in kickoff return yardage, and has scored three touchdowns on the season. Alabama’s cover teams have been a weakness at times, however they have improved as the season progressed, and played well against Florida.
Alabama is 10th in the nation in kickoff returns, but has yet to run one all the way back. The Texas cover team, like Alabama, has been a trouble spot at times, allowing 22 yards per return average, and a TD return to Kansas.
Jordan Shipley is a very good punt returner, however he takes a back seat to Alabama’s Javier Arenas – one of the all time best in the NCAA. Alabama is the better punt cover team as well. Texas ranks 86th nationally in PR coverage, allowing 10.82 yards per return. Texas gave up a TD to Wyoming on a blocked punt.
Alabama’s Leigh Tiffin sits atop the NCAA rankings in Field Goals, with 29 on the season out of 33 attempts. Texas’ Hunter Lawrence is 22 of 25 on the season with his biggest one the game and conference winning 46 yarder against Nebraska.
Intangibles
There are so many question marks in a bowl game of this magnitude. How will the teams handle the time off? How is the mental focus in a game like this? What adjustments and wrinkles will the respective coaching staffs have put in over the break?
Saban and Brown are both outstanding coaches and any player who cannot be focused in this game shouldn’t be playing.
If the time off will hurt either team, it would seem more likely to be problematic for Texas. Whereas Alabama relies on a physical running game and play-action passing game, Texas’ passing attack is more timing based.
Alabama is 5th in turnover margin, while Texas is 8th.
The Bottom Line
This is a hard game to pick for a lot of reasons. The layoff and the matchups and surrounding variables are enough to counter any legitimate statistical analysis and comparison between past performances. The two teams are very evenly matched at most positions on both sides of the ball. Both teams play fundamentally sound, if schematically different styles of football.
If there is a considerable advantage for either team, it is Alabama’s approach to physical football. The Tide dishes out punishment in an effort to make the other team quit, and not always by their own choice.
It is tempting to pick a very close game. Everything is pointing to a 17-14 kind of game – and either team could win.
I have to pick one, and I am going to say that Alabama’s physical style of play makes the margin bigger than the talent and statistics would normally lead me to predict.
The Tide Rolls to its 13th National Championship.
Alabama 34
Texas 13
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