Trickle Down Economics and Pigskin Prognostication: SEC Championship Edition
December 4, 2009
A Look Back
Two in a row. Smoke and mirrors worked in the first quarter – like we expected it to. AU came out with nothing to lose, and played fast and loose. Double reverse passes and onside kicks and they had a lead…then Alabama outscored them 28-7 the rest of the way to win the second of many Saban won Iron Bowl’s to come. Get used to it Auburn. You have Chizik.
On to Florida.
The Game
Tebow Tebow Tebow Tim, Timothy Tim Tim Tebow Timothy. Timothy Tebow Tim Tebow Tim, Timothy Tim Tim Tim Tebow. Tim, Tim Timothy Tebow Tebow Tebow Timothy. Tim Tebow. Tebow Tebow Tebow Tim, Timothy Tim Tim Tebow Timothy. Timothy Tebow Tim Tebow Tim, Timothy Tim Tim Tim Tebow. Tim, Tim Timothy Tebow Tebow Tebow Timothy. Tim Tebow.
There. Get used to it, if you are not already. I really do like Tebow…aside from being a fantastic college QB (probably the best college QB of all time), Tebow is a fantastic human being. When it comes to Christian witness, that young man appears to be the genuine article. Sure, he gets excited playing football, and he is a competitor, but who can blame him? Nobody works harder than he does.
All that said…
My wife commented to me during sportscenter last week, “does anyone else play for Florida other than Tim Tebow?” The very name of Tebow may circumcise children in the Philippines, and give children suffering from physical afflictions hope, but it has become such an oft spoken love-fest as to also bring nausea to college football fans the world over. It isn’t his fault…but please…for the love of Heisman, enough is enough.
Last year Tebow brought Florida back from the brink to defeat Alabama in the SEC title game. The drive was marked by key third down conversions and some of the best precision passing I have ever seen. It even perplexed Coach Saban. After the game, Saban made comments to the affect that there was nothing else Alabama could have done – Tebow just took the game. The passes were indefensible. Alabama was nine minutes from glory, only to have it snatched away. It was a pain that lingered. In the off-season, Saban had meetings with other defensive guru’s around the NCAA – most notably, Oklahoma coach Bob Stoops, who’s Sooner defense held Florida to its lowest point output of the season. While the subject of Saban’s meetings are not public knowledge, it isn’t a stretch to think that the hot topic dicussed was…how to stop Tim Tebow.
Recruiting
Florida is a hotbed of football talent, and the Gators are deep and talented. The past 5 recruiting classes between Alabama and Florida break down as follows (Scout rating, rank by scout/rivals/composite):
2005 UA (2.83) 16/18/17.0 – UF (3.78) 11/15/13
2006 UA (3.30) 18/11/14.5 – UF (3.85) 2/2/2
2007 UA (3.08) 22/10/16.0 – UF (4.22) 1/1/1
2008 UA (3.66) 01/01/01.0 – UF (3.68) 12/3/7.5
2009 UA (3.67) 02/01/01.5 – UF (3.81) 21/11/16
In each of the past five periods, Florida has signed a higher average rating per-player. In two of those periods, Alabama signed a higher ranked class based on number of players signed. The highest rated class brought in by Saban was the 2009 class, and on an average per player it falls short of Florida’s lowest rated class. Still, the average per player of the past four classes for Alabama is comparable – if not higher. For instance, in 2009 Alabama signed 3 players rated 5 stars, and 12 rated 4 stars, compared to 4 and 7 for Florida. Alabama’s per-player average was pulled down, as Alabama also signed 12 players rated 3 stars – while Florida signed a total number of 16. Rating just Alabama’s top 16 signees raises the per-player average to 4.125 – a difference of .315 over Florida’s class. Examining the 2008 class reveals the same: Florda signed 22, at an average of 3.68, while Alabama signed 32, with the top 22 averaging 4.14, a difference of +.46 over Florida.
Trickle Down Category
This category is pretty much out the window this week. Florida has a stockpile of talent, as does Alabama. The few deviations from the rule, are players like Alabama’s Javier Arenas, who was lightly recruited.
The Coaches
With a career record of 122-50-1, Nick Saban is widely respected as one of the best coaches in the game. A defensive guru, Saban’s teams take on his demeanor of being dogged and relentless.
With a career record of 95-17, Urban Meyer built a reputation of being an offensive innovator, motivator, and organizer.
These two coaches are evenly matched. The only real concern, is how big of a distraction the Notre Dame vacancy is for a coach named for a pope. Meyer has always been focused, and becoming the head man for the golden domers will likely not affect this game. The offer from his dream job looming is the only possible distraction going into the SEC Championship game.
Alabama Offense v/s Florida Defense
Florida enters this game with one of the top defensive units in the nation. The highest point total allowed by Florida this season was 20, given up to Arkansas on October 17th. MSU scored 17 against the Gators, while Georgia scored 17.
Alabama counters with an offense averaging 31.7 points per game. The Alabama offense has been sporadic at times, often breaking down in the red zone. Many of the red zone problems have been the self-inflicted kind – penalties (though Alabama is not a highly penalized team), dropped passes, and a few questionable play calls. When Alabama has been forced to rely on the leg of Leigh Tiffin for points, the Groza finalist has been very good.
In the Trenches
The Alabama offensive line has played much better than was expected entering the 2009 season. In spite of having to replace 3 award-laden starters, the Crimson Tide offensive output actually increased this season. Even with the poor game against Auburn, the Tide rushing attack ranks 13th nationally, at 213 yards per game. The Bama OL has given up just 14 sacks on the season.
The Florida defensive front is one of the best in all of college football, but the big news this week was the suspension of Carlos Dunlap, following his arrest for DUI. Dunlap was the 8th leading tackler on the team, and #1 among linemen. Dunlap was tied with his bookend Cunningham in sacks, with a team-leading 7 on the season. While his absence is sure to be felt, Florida is deep on the DL. The most significant drop off will be in terms of size. While Dunlap is a physical freak at 6′7/290, reserve DE Justin Trattou, is a more svelt 6′3/265. Trattou has just 13 total tackles on the season. A significant part of what is lost with Dunlap, is his affect on the passing game. Remarkably, Dunlap is second on the team in pass breakups on the season with 6. He is extremely tall, with a large wingspan. While his speed and strength are somewhat replaceable, his ability to interfere with passing lanes is not.
The tackles are less active in the Florida defense. Hunter and Howard are both in the 300 pound range, with Howard being the more active tackler, with 19 tackles to Hunter’s 15. Howard has 1.5 sacks on the season, to go with one qb hurry, while Hunter has neither. Over the season, Florida has played multiple players at the DT spot.
Alabama RB v/s Florida LB
Mark Ingram went MIA against Auburn, however Trent Richardson and Roy Upchurch came up big when it counted. Auburn schemed to take Ingram out of the game, and there have been some reports that Auburn had stolen Alabama’s play signals, enabling the linebackers and safeties to adjust to the play when Ingram was in the game. For Alabama to win this game, Ingran will need to return to the Heisman form that has garnered him so much attention this season.
The Florida linebackers are very good. Will linebacker Ryan Stamper (6′2/235-RSsr) leads the team in tackles, with 71 on the season, along with 2 interceptions and 2.5 sacks. Middle linebacker and amateur ophthalmologist Brandon Spikes is 4th on the team, with 53 tackles, 3 sacks, and 2 interceptions. Junior Sam LB Brandon Hicks is the least active of the 3 with 20 tackles, however the junior does have 3 sacks on the season. Hicks and Stamper are similar in build – fast, rangy linebackers, while spikes is a more physical run-stopper.
Alabama Receivers v/s Florida Secondary
The Alabama receiving corp is much improved over this time last season. Last year the only real threat was Julio Jones. Maze had not yet come into his own, and no one else had stepped up. This year, Maze has emerged as a threat on both the deep ball, and has shown considerable elusivness, while Darius Hanks has proven to be extremely reliable when the ball is thrown his way. Hanks is not just a possession receiver – he possesses the speed to run away from defenders as well. Julio, after being quiet for most of the season, has come on strong, with 340 yards and 3 touchdowns over the past four games, including a 102 yard performance against LSU. During that time, Jones has been the leading receiver in each game.
Florida is ranked #1 in the nation in pass defense, giving up just 143 yards per game. Through 12 games, the gators have allowed just 6 passing touchdowns – 2 fewer than Alabama, however the gators are allowing a slightly higher completion percentage than the Crimson Tide. Junior corner Joe Haden, and Safety Amahd Black, are second and third on the team in tackles. Haden is the ball hawk of the Florida D, with 7 breakups and 4 interceptions on the season, while Black has 1 pick and 3 breakups. Sophomore corner Janoris Jenkins lacks the experience of his teammates, and has not been as productive, however the youngster does have 2 interceptions on the season – one against Troy, and the second against UK. Safety Major Wright has decent size and good speed, and has 2 picks on the season.
Alabama Quarterback
Will the real Greg McElroy please stand up? In the fourth quarter against Auburn, McElroy showed the kind of patience and cool head that had Alabama fans excited early in the season. When allowed to sit in the pocket and progress through his reads, McElroy can be deadly to opposing defenses. Auburn sold out to stop the run, and after the coaches quit being stubborn and put the game in McElroy’s hands, he delivered the win. If Florida takes the same approach, McElroy’s ability to perform may hinge on the ability of the OL to protect him. With Dunlap out, Florida will be forced to blitz more often. If Alabama can pick up the blitz, there will be the opportunity for McElroy to have a big game.
Alabama O v/s Florida D Final
No ifs ands or buts, UF has a great defense. Alabama’s offensive performance may hinge as much on Alabama’s defensive and special teams success, as their own ability to move the ball. The Tide will need a shortened field in order to put up points – Florida is just too good on defense to drive on with any consistency. If the OL can protect McElroy on 3rd down conversion attempts, and spend most of the day ahead of the chains, the Bama offense may surprise some people with its point output against the vaunted Florida defense. If UF is able to get pressure on McElroy without blitzing and Alabama finds itself in a lot of 3rd and long situations, it could be a long day.
Florida Offense v/s Alabama Defense
Slobber-knocker might be the best word for this matchup. The Florida OL is good, if not great, and the Alabama defense is vicious. The Florida skill players are physical, and they have a battering ram at QB named Tim Tebow (if you didn’t already know).
In the Trenches
Alabama’s DL has played very well this season. While Cody has not gotten the constant attention that his first season brought, he has already matched his total for tackles made in 2008. In 2008, Cody finished the season with 4.5 tackles for loss, and half of a sack, while this season the man-mountain has 5 tackles for loss, a pass breakup, a pass defended, and 2 quarterback hurries.
The Bama DL is deeper this season in terms of rotation and performance. Marcel Dareus has emerged as a force on the DL, with the ability to play anywhere across the front, and the strength and speed to make opposing offensive linemen look foolish, and he leads the team with 6.5 sacks on the season. Deaderick and Washington have both played solidly, in their roles, with 3 sacks between them.
The Florida offensive line is massive, however they have not played as well this season as a year ago. The massive Pouncey twins still man the RG and Center spot, and Marcus Gilbert is a big RT at 320#. The left side of the line is manned by monsterous Carl Johnson (6′5/342), and the smallish Xavier Nixon (6′5/285).
Cody will be important in this game. His ability to clog the middle and force Tebow to run to the edge will limit the effectiveness of the Florida offense. With 796 yards on the season, Tebow is Florida’s leading rusher. He makes his mark at the second level, where his decided size advantage enables him to run over cornerbacks. If forced to slow down at the line, he can be stopped. The matchup of the game may well be the Florida OL against the Alabama DL.
Florida RB v/s Alabama LB
Alabama has one of the best LB corp in college football. McClain is an All-American, and Reamer has stepped up his game since Hightower went down. From his Jack position, Eryk Anders is the 4th leading tackler on the team, and is tied for second with 5 sacks. Freshman Nico Johnson has shown why he was so highly sought after, having posted 25 tackles in an ever increasing role.
Florida’s RB corp consists of Tim Tebow. There may be one or two others. Technically the starting RB is Jeffrey Demps, a 5′8/183# scatback who has 729 yards on the season. Chris Rainey has 541 yards on the season. Still, with over 17 carries per game, Tebow has more attempts than Demps and Rainey COMBINED, in spite of having missed a game with a concussion. I have my doubts he will finish the game this week if forced to run that often.
Florida Receivers v/s Alabama Secondary
Rashad Johnson was a big loss from the 2008 defense, and while Mark Barron may not yet be the caliber of player Rashad was, he has more interceptions this season than Rashad had in all of 2008, and just one fewer in the break-ups column. Javier Arenas has garnered national attention for his play in the secondary, and Johnson, Woodall, and Jackson have all improved statistically this season.
The Florida receiving corp is talented, but lacks the big play threat from 2008. While it has been mentioned repeatedly that Percy Harvin did not play in the 2008 championship game, what isn’t mentioned is the productivity lost with Murphy, who lead all Florida receivers against Alabama last year, with 86 yards. Lacking a home run threat, this season the tight-end has been more prominent in the UF passing game, and Aaron Hernandez is a good one. Hernandez has almost doubled his yardage from 2008, and averages almost 13 yards per catch. He must be accounted for if Alabama is going to shut down the Florida offense.
Florida Quarterback
John Brantly has 410 yards passing and 7 touchdowns on the season, with an incredible 194.88 rating.
The fullback who plays QB has 2166 yards and 17 TD’s on the season.
A significant difference in 2009, when compared to 2008, has been the amount of pressure on Tebow. In 2008, Tebow was sacked just 15 times. Thus far in 2009, the Gator QB has gone down 25 times. Combined with the sack of Brantly, the Gator OL has allowed 26 QB sacks, an average of over 2 per game. 22 of Florida’s sacks have come against conference teams.
Alabama can’t let Tebow beat them. To win the game, the Crimson Tide must contain Tebow in the pocket, and collapse it in on him. On designed run plays, the defense must force him outside where he can’t run downhill.
Florida Offense v/s Alabama Defense Final
The UF offense is not as potent as it was in 2008, in large part because of the absence of Murphy and Harvin. Without a downfield threat, Florida has been forced to throw to the tight-end more often, and Tebow has pulled the ball down and made QB draws out of designed passing plays.
In 2008, Florida was averaging 46 points per game going into the SECCG. This season they are averaging 36.5.
Special Teams
Florida and Alabama are #1 and #2 in kickoff returns, and Alabama is #2 in punt return average, while Florida is 10th. Kick coverage is vital this week for Alabama. Florida is too good for Alabama to give up a cheap score on a kick return
Conversely, Florida is 8th in the nation in punt return defense, so Javy may find the going a bit difficult this week.
If the game comes down to field goal kicking, Alabama has a decided edge, as Florida’s kicker is just .704 on the season.
Keys and Intangibles
Almost.
That was the word that best described Alabama’s 2008 season. It was a season of “almost.” The players went into the off-season with one single goal – finish. Florida knocked the 12-0 Crimson Tide out of the National Title game last season, and revenge is on the mind of the crimson clad warriors. Saban reportedly took the loss to Florida very hard, and has put in more time preparing for this game than normal. The gameplan has been months in the making and involved countless hours of film study and consultation with other coaches.
Florida has never gone undefeated to a national title and it is Tebow’s last year in a gator uniform.
Alabama leads the SEC in time of possession, turnover margin, and opponent first downs. Florida leads the league in first downs, is 3rd in turnover margin and time of possession.
Possible key stat: Alabama is #1 in the SEC in red zone defense, while Florida is 10th in red zone offense.
The Bottom Line
This will be a barn burner, and an argument could be made for either team to win. It is hard to see how this game could be an offensive battle. Florida’s offense, while good, plays to the strength of Alabama’s defense. Florida’s defense is very good, but will be missing their all-world defensive end, and that could be more distraction than loss.
This should be a close game, and it could go either way.
I am calling it:
Alabama 28
Florida 17
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