Trickle Down Economics and Pigskin Prognostication: LSU at Alabama
November 6, 2009
A Look Back
Last week we trashed bye. The previous week we got by trash. Enough said.
The Game
For the past two seasons, the buildup to the LSU game has been almost unbearable, as the conflated conflict between Nick Saban and the LSU nation has gotten more attention than the game. LSU are still suffering from jilted lover syndrome – exacerbated by the fact that they have a hatted idiot coaching their team. A listen to 870 AM radio after LSU eeks out a win (or loses), and you realize that no matter how much they defend him, LSU fans hate Mr. Hat. Last week I listened as caller after caller did their best to not say the name “Saban” when talking about how poor of a coach Mr. Hat was compared to ‘other coaches.’ It was kind of sad really.
For himself, Mr. Hat appears to share the fascination with Saban. At functions he has repeatedly referenced Alabama and Saban in an unflattering manner. Perhaps Mr. Hat is jealous of the attention given to his predecessor.
This season the game is, for all intents and purposes, a one game play-in for the SEC title game. If Alabama loses, LSU will control its own destiny and likely go to Atlanta. Alabama wins – they lock up at least a share of the West. Alabama has just two conference games after LSU, and a head to head win over LSU puts Alabama in the SECCG. The stakes are high for both teams.
Recruiting
Much like has happened at Alabama, Saban’s recruiting helped make LSU into a national power. Mr. Hat has continued to recruit well, in spite of his intelligence being questioned by his own fan base. The humor in such critique is that regular callers into the Paul Finebaum Radio Network appear mensa-esque beside the beer battered hat-bashers on 870 AM’s post-game call-in show. Four years gone they still look longingly to the north and east.
This is how LSU and UA compare in recruiting since 2006; Scout average star rating/Scout Rank/Rivals Rank/composite:
2006 UA (3.30) 18/11/14.5 – LSU (3.44) 7/7/7
2007 UA (3.08) 22/10/16.0 – LSU (3.88) 5/4/4.5
2008 UA (3.66) 01/01/01.0 – LSU (3.50) 7/11/9.5
2009 UA (3.67) 02/01/01.5 – LSU (3.79) 3/02/2.5
The rankings indicate that LSU should have a more “talented” junior and senior class, while Alabama is deeper in the freshman and sophomore classes. For the first time this season, Alabama faces a team with a higher level of recruiting success over the past four seasons.
Trickle Down Category
With two teams having consistently recruited in the top 10, this game is not a trickle down contest in the sense of a superstar who was hidden – yet in some ways it may be. Quarterback Greg McElroy and Alabama CB/Return man Javier Arenas were not highly recruited. Terrence Cody was virtually unnoticed coming out of high school, and few teams pursued him out of JUCO. It there is a “Trickle Down” factor in this game, it is in Alabama’s court for a change.
Notable Intangibles
Yes, LSU fans hate Saban. We get that already. Effigy burning and billboards are pointless and disturbing. Get over it before 2010. For Alabama fans, LSU is just another conference game.
Saban coached teams are marked by aggressive, disciplined defensive play, while the mad hatter’s teams are generally more oriented toward offense. Tracking Mr. Hat’s coaching record, you find that in the past 9 seasons, his teams have given up over 40 points on 13 occasions – including 4 times in the past two seasons at LSU.
This season, LSU has struggled offensively, ranking as the worst offensive in the SEC. They have lived by defense, which is uncharacteristic for Hatter teams. LSU is currently ranked 15th nationally in total defense. LSU has played two teams ranked in the top 50 in offense. In SEC play, LSU has surrendered over 10 points 3 times in 5 games, including just 13 to Florida in a losing effort. A goal line stand prevented an upset at MSU, where the bulldogs scored 26. MSU is 6th in the SEC in total offense, 7th in scoring offense. Whether or not this game stands alone as an anomaly will be shown Saturday. MSU’s offense is quite different than Alabama’s, however they do run the ball quite well, and outgained LSU 374-263.
Alabama is currently ranked 4th in total offense, in spite of recent struggles. Defensively, Alabama ranks 4th nationally in total defense, and has also played 2 teams ranked in the top 50. In SEC play, Alabama has surrendered over 10 points just once in 5 games – 20 points at UK, with 14 of them coming in trash time.
The Units
Alabama O v/s LSU D
The Alabama offense, and Quarterback Greg McElroy specifically, have been under fire over the past few weeks. After starting the season with a streak of 5 consecutive games of 30+ points, production has fallen off, and Alabama failed to reach the end zone against Tennessee. LSU has a very talented defense, but the x factor this week may be their inability to consistently pressure quarterbacks.
Under first year defensive coordinator John Chavis, LSU ranks 8th in the SEC in pass defense and 4th in total defense. The two game offensive skid suffered by Alabama has come against teams ranked 2nd and 4th in passing defense in the SEC. While Chavis’ defenses at UT in 2008 and 2007 were ranked well statistically, Alabama was able to score a lot of points against them.
In the Trenches
The Alabama offensive line is a bit of an enigma. They have blocked well enough to propel Alabama to 4th in total offense and rushing offense, yet in recent weeks the offense has sputtered in the red zone. QB Greg McElroy has barely been touched (Alabama ranks 1st in fewest sacks allowed), yet the pressure allowed has reduced his effectiveness. While LSU has not been effective at sacking opposing quarterbacks (last in the league in sacks), the offensive line must limit the pressure this week. Given time, McElroy is capable of picking a defense apart.
LSU’s starting front against Tulane consisted of Levingston (6’4/269), Woods (6’4/311), Alexander (6’3/298), and Alem (6’3/263). DE Rahim Alem is the only one of the four ranking in the top 11 in tackles on the season, and has 3 of LSU’s 11 sacks on the season. They are stronger against power running teams than spread offenses, which works in their favor this week. That said, Alabama has elements of the spread in the playbook, and with a week of to prepare for LSU, it would not be a surprise to see more formations geared toward attacking the corners and getting the ball in space, as opposed to off-tackle running.
Alabama RB’s v/s LSU LB’s
In spite of question marks entering 2009, the LB corp has broken out as the strength of the LSU defense. LSU returned two starters from last season in the linebacker corp – Junior Kelvin Sheppard at Mike, and Senior Perry Riley, a finalist for the Butkus award in 2008. Not surprisingly, the two are 1-2 in total tackles on the season. SAM linebacker Harry Coleman has performed will, and is 3rd on the team in tackles. Riley and Sheppard both have good size, while the 206# Coleman is well suited for his position.
The Alabama running game has been very good in 2009, and Mark Ingram has emerged as a Heisman favorite. With Richardson pitching relief, Alabama has had a 1-2 punch unmatched in the league.
The book has been written on slowing down the Alabama offense – bring the heat. Roy Upchurch is a powerful runner and threat in the passing game, but has been hampered by injury. Reports indicate Upchurch is 100% entering the LSU game. He will be needed as the screen element of the passing game may be vital against LSU. If LSU blitzes the LB’s, Upchurch could hurt them.
Alabama Receivers v/s LSU Secondary
Alabama’s receiving corp has been hampered by the inability of the passing game to “click.” It has been a “Murphy’s Law” scenario in recent weeks. Defensive pressure has presented McElroy from consistently delivering the ball. When McElroy has delivered the ball, there have been numerous drops. Against Tennessee, Alabama entered the game with Colin Peek figuring heavily into the game plan – and he was injured in pregame. Peek is listed as a game-time decision this week, however unlike the UT game, converted DE Michael Williams will be prepared to get the start. Alabama has a ton of talent in the receiving corp, the passing game has not “clicked” in recent weeks.
The LSU secondary has been the “weakness” of the defense. 11 picks on the season is good enough to be tied for 3rd in the league, however LSU has not faced a team with a really good, physical receiving corp. While Patrick Peterson may be considered one of the best corners in the league, if there is a “paper tiger” aspect of the LSU defense, it is the secondary. At 35th, the Washington Huskies are the only team LSU has played with a top 50 passing attack, and the Huskies put up over 300 yards against LSU. Georgia at 61 and Tulane at 74, are the only other passing offenses LSU has played that rank in the top 75. While Alabama currently resides outside the top 75, the potential is there for a breakout day.
Alabama Quarterback
McElroy has really played just one bad game. Against South Carolina, the Junior QB was frustrated and making bad decisions. Aside from that, things have just not “clicked.” Reports out of Tuscaloosa are very optimistic about progress made during the off week. McElroy is still the strong armed, highly intelligent QB we saw in the first few games of the season. One good performance will erase the memory of the past few weeks.
Alabama O v/s LSU D Final
LSU has a strong front 7, decent safeties, and a fair group of cornerbacks. Alabama will attempt to spread out the LSU offense and create mismatches in open space. The LSU defensive ends are bigger (and slower) than what Alabama has seen in recent weeks. They do well at stopping the power running game, but are far less effective in pursuit. How this matchup goes depends heavily on the offensive game plan of the Alabama coaching staff. The Alabama offense has the potential and ability to dominate the LSU defense and score more points on them than anyone has this season. It is all about game plan.
LSU Offense v/s Alabama Defense
LSU has the worst offense in the SEC in terms of production, and ranks 8th in the league in points scored. The Alabama defense is second in the league in stopping offenses (by 4 yards per game), and second in scoring defense (by .4 ppg).
In the Trenches
The Alabama defensive front has established itself as one of the strongest in the country. While technically employing 3 down linemen, the Jack linebacker often provides the Crimson Tide with a defacto 4th DL, and gives the unit the flexibility to bring pressure from anywhere. The much ballyhooed matchup this week is between LSU center Bob Hebert, and Alabama’s man-mountain Terrence Cody. Heber is 6’3/285, and part of an offensive line that has given up 23 sacks on the season. The LSU offense ranks 11th in the SEC in third down conversions – in spite of having the bruising RB Charles Scott. Scott is physical enough to make yards when there are none to be had, so LSU’s #10 ranking in rushing and only 8 touchdowns on the ground really underscores how poorly this unit has performed.
LSU RB’s v/s Alabama LB’s
Alabama’s loss of Hightower has been well documented. Even without Hightower, Alabama has one of the best LB corps in the nation. While the defense may have slipped slightly in the wake of his injury, the addition of Jerrell Harris and the development of Nico Johnson is helping to shore up the LB corp.
Words cannot describe how impressed I have been by Charles Scott through the years. The 6’/234# senior led the SEC in rushing touchdowns in 2008 with 18. He is capable of running over, through, or around defenders. This season, Scott has just 4 touchdowns in 8 games, and is averaging less than 58 yards per game. Backups Shepherd and Williams are talented, but with LSU’s issues on the OL, their effectiveness is limited.
LSU Receivers v/s Alabama Secondary
Like LSU, if Alabama has a weakness – it is the secondary. Toliver and Lafell may be the most talented receiving duo Alabama will face all season, and Jordan Jefferson has been playing much better in recent weeks. Like Alabama, LSU likes to throw to the tight end, and Richard Dickson is a physical receiver and 3rd on the team in receptions, however Dickson is a situational possession receiver and not in the same league as Colin Peek.
Saying that the Alabama secondary is the weakness, is not the same as saying that it is weak. The LSU offense has been sporadic in the passing game, and their success has been against weaker defenses. Against Florida, LSU failed to break 100 yards passing. While perhaps the weakest unit on the Alabama defense, the Tide secondary will be one of the best LSU has faced.
LSU Quarterback
You have to admire Jordan Jefferson. The sophomore signal caller has received more than his share of criticism, and bounced back to perform well. While he is still not among the top quarterbacks in the SEC, his 63% completion rate and ratio of 11 touchdowns to 4 interceptions is solid, given the amount of pressure he has had to endure. He is a danger to take off and run, and has over 300 yards rushing on the season (sack yardage excluded). In some ways, Jefferson is similar to Tyrod Taylor from Virginia Tech. He possesses similar skills, but lacks the development and blazing speed of Tech’s quarterback.
LSU O v/s Bama D Final
If you had asked me prior to this season who the best RB in the SEC is, I would have answered Charles Scott. He is am amazing athlete. LSU has great receivers, and a solid QB. The offense has serious concerns on the OL, and it may be that LSU’s biggest offensive problem is Gary Crowton. Alabama’s defense is comparable to the UF unit that held LSU to 3 points. LSU will do better this week – but not a lot.
Special Teams
While still a major concern, Alabama’s coverage teams have quietly improved; that is key this week, as LSU has speed to burn. Trindon Holliday may be the fastest man in the NCAA, and if the Alabama cover team gives him a seam Holliday will make them pay.
Conversely, Alabama’s Javier Arenas is one of the best return men ever to field a punt. Even so, Alabama has struggled in the return game in recent weeks due to penalties. Hopefully, this was cured during the off week. LSU will not make it easy, as the Bayou Bengals rank second nationally in kickoff return coverage, and 30th in punt coverage.
Leigh Tiffin has established himself as one of the best placekickers in the NCAA, while LSU’s Josh Jasper is a solid 10 of 13 on the season, with a long of 52.
The Bottom Line
With LSU’s defense and Alabama’s offensive struggles, combined with LSU’s offensive ineptitude matched against Alabama’s defensive dominance, this would figure to be a close, low scoring game – the kind of game that a big play in special teams could determine the outcome of. LSU gets the nod in that category because Alabama’s coverage teams are susceptible to giving up big returns.
This won’t be that kind of game.
LSU will get a big play in the return game, but their offense will have little success. Alabama’s offense may not run up and down the field, but they will do enough to keep the game on the LSU side of the 50. LSU’s defense will play valiantly, but their back will be against the wall for much of the game.
With a week off and an improved passing game, Alabama asserts itself as the top team in the west:
Alabama 32
LSU 13
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